D2149 Station Operator's Journal
Weather and station maintenance notes of interest reported by the station operator
NOTE: This page is only updated when a new entry has been added. Not all station activity is logged

Station's 12-24 Hr. Forecast: Increasing clouds with little temperature change. Precipitation possible within 24 to 48 hours.

Last Day of Significant Rainfall with Total: 15 Feb 2012 (0.49 in) 21-Feb-2012 11:36 AM Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 1016 am PST Tuesday Feb 21 2012 Synopsis... dry conditions and gradual warming will continue through the end of this week. A cool down along with a slight chance of precipitation appears to be on the way for the weekend beginning Saturday evening. Discussion... some high clouds are spilling over the Pacific upper ridge and tracking across the central California interior. Temperatures across the area are currently running at or slightly below readings from this time yesterday. As the ridge expands eastward into the region we can expect a few degrees of warming today...with highs topping out a bit above climatology. Models remain in general agreement...keeping the ridge in place for the next few days and maintaining dry and mild conditions. For the weekend into early next week there remains model discrepancy in the strength...timing and trajectory of an incoming trough. No updates are planned for the forecast this morning. ==================================== [end of update] 19-Feb-2012 9:30 AM Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 915 am PST sun Feb 19 2012 Synopsis.... another weak low pressure system could bring a few showers to the Sierra tomorrow...dry conditions are otherwise expected through the end of next week. Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler over the rest of the Holiday weekend...then a warming trend begins Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds. Discussion... IR/WV indicating a weak Pacific shortwave off the central California coast near the Bay area which is dropping southward at this time. This feature has brought a noticeable increase in high clouds over our area. In addition...visible imagery is indicating low clouds banked up along the south end and east side of the San Joaquin Valley and over the southern Sierra Nevada foothills. Have made an update to the grids this morning to account for the presence of upslope clouds. The forecast for today looks on track otherwise. 12z WRF/GFS indicate our area remaining under a northwest flow as an upper ridge amplifies around 135w. Another weak shortwave is prognosticated to drop southward through central California on Monday afternoon and evening which will bring some middle/high clouds to our area as well as possibly some light showers to the Yosemite park area. The ridge is prognosticated to push inland ion Tuesday and Wednesday and provide our area with dry conditions and a warming trend. The medium range models are in good agreement with keeping the ridge in place off the western Continental U.S. Coast through the end of the week that will keep mild and dry weather across our area. The ridge is prognosticated to flatten next weekend as a low pressure system pushes into the Pacific northwest next Saturday then drop into the Great Basin next Sunday. ========================================= [end of update] 17-Feb-2012 8:42 AM Slight Chance of Rain/Snow on Saturday Night/Sunday Morning The latest model runs are indicating a slight chance of precipitation for the northern portions of the Hanford forecast area which includes Bass Lake. The main portion of this trough will be hitting southern Oregon and extreme Northern California, so we do not expect this to be much of an event for us here, but this year, you never know. We will just have to wait and see if we actually get anything measurable from the extreme southern tip of this system. We could see overcast skies on Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning regardless of any precipitation. The Latest IR Sat Image We will update the journal as conditions warrant. [end of update] 16-Feb-2012 7:56 AM Record Breaking Wind Gust This Morning - Dry Weather Returns Today The station recorded a 37 mph wind gust this morning just after 6AM with sustained winds well above 10 mph for several hours. This high wind gust broke our previous record of 25 mph recorded back in January. The compression from these high winds actually raised our high temperature several degrees to nearly 40 F, but temps have now fallen back down to 35 degrees F as this wind event came to an end about 30 minutes ago. Heading into the next 7-10 days, weather models are suggesting yet another period of clear and dry weather through at least the middle of next week. Based on this, we will likely be setting yet another dubious weather milestone for the driest February on record for the Southern Sierra Nevada. The Latest from Hanford Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 235 am PST Thursday Feb 16 2012 Synopsis... frosty conditions are possible in the San Joaquin Valley during the night and morning hours through Friday. Gusty desert winds are also expected in Kern County through this afternoon. Another low pressure system may bring some snow showers to the Sierra crest this weekend...otherwise dry conditions are expected through presidents day. Discussion... satellite loops show clouds banked along the valley-facing slopes of the Kern County mountains south of the Kern River Canyon. The clouds that had been over the south end of the San Joaquin Valley have mostly dissipated...and with a cold dry airmass moving into the San Joaquin Valley...expect strong radiational cooling toward daybreak. Lows in the coldest San Joaquin Valley locations this morning will be in the 29-32 degree range...although durations in most areas may be a couple of hours less than originally forecast. The upper-level low is over the California/Baja California California border this morning. The models forecast the low to drop southeast... allowing an upper-level ridge to build into central California. This will bring stable conditions with the potential for either frost or fog in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley tonight...and some spots may see both. Lows Friday morning are forecast to be slightly colder than this morning...but will hold off any advisory for now as fog development may mitigate the cooling. An upper-level low is forecast to approach Vancouver Island Friday night. The associated trough will move into the Pacific northwest... then dig south into California during the day Saturday. This will bring a slight chance of showers to the southern Sierra Nevada for the weekend. Although the trough is forecast to move into the Great Basin Sunday morning...a trailing impulse will keep a slight chance of snow showers over the high country into Sunday evening. An east-Pacific upper-level ridge is forecast to build onshore into California next week. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in agreement through midweek...then the GFS brings another trough into the Pacific northwest next Thursday while the European model (ecmwf) has ridging along the coast. The forecast will be dry next Monday through Wednesday...and have not added any precipitation to the day 8 grids due to model differences. ==================================================== We will update the journal as conditions warrant. [end of update] 15-Feb-2012 7:20 AM Heavy Snowfall This Morning - Rain Bucket Heater Overwhelmed! Starting at about 4:30 AM this morning we began receiving a VERY heavy amount of snow. The rate was so intense that it completely overwhelmed our rain bucket heater, so we are still measuring this unusual event as of this report. It will take some time for all the snow in the rain bucket to melt and be counted. This is the first time we have ever seen this much snow this fast. We are looking at about 5 inches on the ground with the bulk of that snow coming down in less than two hours. The cell that produced this unusual event has now moved out of the area leaving partly cloudy skies. Radar looks clear at the moment, so that could be it for the day today in terms of precipitation. We may see some upslope generated precipitation later today, but we are not sure at this point. The current report from Hanford precedes this event, so we will not be including their now sorely outdated forecast in this update. Current WebCam Image [end of update] 14-Feb-2012 8:08 AM Break in the Action Today - Next Storm Arriving During the Day on Wednesday We picked up 0.65 inches of precipitation from the storm system yesterday, with a large portion of this precipitation arriving in the form of a rain/snow mix and pure snow. There wasn't much to this last system and as a result we only saw about 1/2 of an inch of snow on the ground that quickly melted during the day. The next system isn't looking any more impressive than the one we saw Monday. We may pick up an additional 1/2 of rain from this next one late tomorrow, and hopefully more. Unfortunately, none of these systems are what we would normally be seeing during the middle of our wettest month of the year. Our current rainfall total for Feb. currently stands at: 0.92 with 10.09 inches for the entire season. Normally, we would be well over 40 inches for the season by this date. Our average rainfall total for Feb. is 9.5 inches. The Latest from Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 756 am PST Tuesday Feb 14 2012 Synopsis... the storm system that had impacted the area yesterday has continued to move south out of the region. A ridge axis behind the system has moved from the north into central California. This ridge axis will temporarily bring clearing skies and dry conditions. As the ridge axis moves southward...the next system will enter the region early Wednesday from the north bringing increased chances for precipitation. Discussion... light rain and drizzle early over the San Joaquin Valley this morning as a weak trailing shortwave trough moves through. I have updated the grids to reflect this reality. For later today skies should clear as the short lived ridge moves over the region. The next system is on track for tomorrow with very good agreement between models. May need to increase probability of precipitation later today but no other updates now. ============================================================ We will update the journal sometime tomorrow as conditions warrant. [end of update] 13-Feb-2012 8:58 AM 1/2 Inch of Snow on the Ground - More Systems Expected Through Wednesday We have picked up 0.64 inches of precipitation so far today with a portion of that coming down in the form of light snow. We have about a half inch of accumulation on the ground here at the station with a current break in the activity. Our current storm total now stands at 0.80 inches since the storm arrived yesterday. Local radar shows that the bulk of the system has already passed overnight, so we are not sure how much more precipitation we will receive through the day today. Additional upslope generated precipitation is a definite possibility as the day progresses. As the lower atmosphere heats up under partially clear skies, this will increase the chances for Thunderstorms forming over our area later this afternoon. Definitely worth watching. Current State-Wide NextRad Radar Image The Latest IR Sat Image Showing the Next Inbound System Follow the Storm Yourself Using Our: Wide-Angle Precipitation Map Here is the latest from Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 846 am PST Monday Feb 13 2012 Synopsis... an upper level low pressure system will continue to bring the threat of valley rain and higher elevation snow through today. Higher than usual desert winds and possibility of desert rain is also expected with the passage of this storm system. Another break in the active weather will take place on Tuesday before another weak system moves into the region bringing a chance for more precipitation on Wednesday. Discussion... satellite and radar show the main frontal band now pushing quickly east into the Sierra and Kern County mountains. Visible imagery shows a large clear area to the west and this should allow for surface heating and increased instability later this morning. The upper low is nicely defined on water vapor imagery dropping southeast into the forecast area and although the center was not sampled by any of the upper air sites, the cold pool aloft is certainly heading this way. Forecast model convective parameters indicate instability will be sufficient for some isolated thunderstorms with nam12 forecast soundings indicating lifted indices to around -2 and cape to around 300 j/kg. Based on this, I have added isolated thunderstorms to the forecast for the sjv and adjacent foothills for today. As for the Winter Weather Advisory, Tuolumne Meadows just reported 7 inches of overnight snow and over the Sierra the convective snow shower coverage will be sufficient to keep the advisory in place. By this evening, things should wind down with the system moving east of the area. Short wave ridging to follow on Tuesday with another trough of low pressure dropping south into the Great Basin on Wednesday. Will need to look more closely at this feature and latest European model (ecmwf) model run to determine if probability of precipitation need any changes. That's all for now. ================================================== We will update the journal as conditions warrant throughout the day today. [end of update] 12-Feb-2012 8:29 PM Precipitation Inbound - Rain Bucket Has Already Tipped! The edge of the anticipated storm is just now reaching the Sierra Foothills. Light rain is falling at the station with 0.01 already recorded from the initial activity over the last 30 minutes. The heavier portions of the system are just now coming onshore and moving over the Bay Area. We expect these heavier showers to arrive here sometime before midnight. Current State-Wide Radar Returns Rain should continue and increase in intensity as the main portion of the system arrives later tonight and into most of Monday. Still unclear at this point whether temps will fall low enough for snow to develop here at Bass Lake, but we wouldn't rule it out between now and daybreak Monday. We will be back in the morning to re-cap the latest storm-totals and the future of this system heading into the week. {Station Maintenance Note: Rain Bucket Heater activated 8:27 p.m.} [end of update] 12-Feb-2012 11:14 AM Forecast Update: 11:14 a.m. Upslope generated clouds have blossomed over the area and brought mostly cloudy skies to the area. These clouds are not part of the actual storm system that will be moving in later today and contain no precipitation, but will bring an end to the clear sky/sunny day forecasted for the first half of the day today. Latest WebCam Image We still expect the low pressure system to move in later this afternoon with rain developing late this evening and intensifying by early AM Monday. [end of update] 12-Feb-2012 8:42 AM Previous Journal Update: Monday Storm Still On Track - Unstable Weather Could Last Through Wednesday We picked up 0.01 inches of precipitation just after midnight this morning as a result of some persistent drizzle and mist last night. The high dew point has kept some fog over the lake this morning, but skies are clear as of this report and we expect a sunny pleasant day through at least the noon hour. The edge of the Monday system will begin moving in later today, so expect to start seeing high clouds moving in from the west this afternoon, turning mostly cloudy by this evening. Rain will begin falling late tonight and into Monday as the system comes onshore. Quantitative precipitation estimates are still unclear as of this report, but we are confident that we will pick up at least 1/2 an inch in the next 36 hours. The latest NWS forecast calls for the unstable airmass to linger through Wednesday morning, so the complete storm total from this coming event will remain uncertain until we are actually under the influence of this cold low pressure system. The Latest IR Sat Image Showing Inbound Pacific Systems The Latest from Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 620 am PST sun Feb 12 2012 Synopsis... today there will be a break in the somewhat active pattern that has started taking shape. But...beginning late tonight into early Monday our next system will move into the region. This next system will increase the threat of valley rain and higher elevation snows. Gusty winds are also a good possibility on Monday in the Kern County deserts, Tehachapi Mountains, and the Grapevine area along with the increased chances of precipitation. Update... patchy dense fog has developed in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley. At 1350z /0550 PST/ this morning...Madera Municipal Airport had a visibility of less than a quarter mile...Fresno- Yosemite international and Hanford Municipal airports were reporting 0.5 mile visibility...and both Castle and Merced regional airports were at 3/4 mile. But at the same time...Fresno Chandler Airport was at 3 miles and Tulare Municipal Airport was at 7 miles. Updated the forecast to add patchy fog in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley this morning. Discussion... the upper-level trough moved through the Hanford warning/forecast area Saturday...bringing Fresno its first measurable rain since January 30th. A few upslope showers continued along the southern Sierra Nevada foothills through the evening hours in upslope clouds. Gusty winds behind the cold front continue early this morning through and below the passes of the Tehachapi Mountains. Wind gusts have been around 35-45 miles per hour for the past few hours and have issued a significant weather advisory /sfospshnx or wwus86 khnx/ for the Kern County desert from the Tehachapi Pass to the Kern County line through 16z /0800 PST/. The clouds that moved over the central California interior kept lows in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley well above normal. Bakersfield/S low of 52 for the 11th was only 4 degrees off the record high minimum of 56...set in 1925...while Fresno/S low of 51 was only 2 degrees shy of the record of 53 degrees...set in 1970. Satellite loops show upslope clouds persisting along the southern Sierra Nevada foothills and over the south end of the San Joaquin Valley this morning. Patchy stratocumulus was elsewhere in the San Joaquin Valley and partly cloudy skies will continue through the day. A stronger...colder storm will move into northern California tonight and drop southeast across the state during the day Monday. The latest model runs now track the upper-level low as mainly an inside slider moving east of the southern Sierra Nevada crest...and to over Las Vegas by 12z /0400 PST/ Tuesday. Rainfall amounts on the central and southern San Joaquin Valley floor are forecast to be up to a quarter inch. In the southern Sierra Nevada...total snow accumulations above 6000 feet will be 5-8 inches near Yosemite...and up to 5 inches in the Tulare County mountains. The snow level will start around 5500 feet tonight near Yosemite...falling to 4000 feet during the day Monday...and into the foothills around 3000 feet Monday night after the heaviest snowfall has ended. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the southern Sierra Nevada from Yosemite National Park to Kings Canyon from 08z /midnight/ Monday to 04z Tuesday /2000 PST Monday/. Further south...snow levels will fall to around 3500 feet Monday night. Light snow accumulations...up to an inch...will be possible on the Grapevine and Tehachapi Pass late Monday into Monday night. The upper-level trough is forecast to linger over Southern California into Tuesday. The models do not agree on the trajectory of the low beyond Monday night...so have allowed for some backwash precipitation over and adjacent to the southern Sierra Nevada Tuesday. Another upper-level low is forecast to impact California Wednesday. The medium-range models are in poor agreement with the trajectory with the low...even from run to run. The 00z GFS tracked the low south off the California coast...while the 06z GFS drops the low through California to off the Southern California coast by 06z Thursday /2200 PST Wednesday/. The 00z European model (ecmwf) has the low as an inside slider...dropping through Nevada and reaching the lower Colorado River valley by 06z Thursday. The current forecast is based on a compromise of the 00z and 06z GFS tracks...and the timing of the 00z run...but confidence is low. ============================================== We plan to update the journal Monday morning to report on the current conditions and the trajectory of the Monday storm. 11-Feb-2012 8:04 AM Spotty Showers Today - Partly Cloudy Tomorrow - Bigger Storm on Monday The latest radar returns from this first low pressure trough do not look very impressive so far. We can detect a few pockets of light precipitation moving through the state from the SouthWest. Since the air is unstable, there is a chance that once the day progresses, we may see some lower atmospheric heating that could help to form some upslope precipitation in the Southern Sierra. Even with that, we don't expect more than a trace to a few hundredths of an inch from this system today, if anything. The bigger weather story will come on Monday as a much colder and larger system moves into our area from the Gulf of Alaska. This system will be very cold and will bring snow levels down to the foothill elevations Monday into Tuesday morning. The NWS is estimating that precipitation amounts could range from ½ to ¾ of an inch for our area with a chance of light snow accumulation through the period. The Latest IR Sat Image Showing Current and Inbound Pacific Systems Current Wide-Angle Precipitation Map Radar The Latest from Hanford: Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 700 am PST Sat Feb 11 2012 Synopsis... change is on the way...a series of weather systems are expected to move over the region the next several days...beginning this morning...bringing cooler temperatures and the threat of valley rain and higher elevation snows. Update... a few showers already have produced measurable rain in the San Joaquin Valley and in the Tehachapi Mountains at Grapevine Peak. Have updated the forecast to chance the slight chance of showers to isolated showers. Discussion... after another day of well above normal temperatures...with Bakersfield coming within a degree of its record high for February 10th and Fresno only 2 degrees off...the weather pattern is beginning to transition to a winter-type regime. Satellite loops show an upper- level low west of Monterey Bay this morning...and radar is picking up some rain over the east Pacific. The models forecast this low to come onshore this morning...with the associated trough moving through the Hanford warning/forecast area by 00z Sunday /1600 PST Saturday/. Model and rfc quantitative precipitation forecast are light...with only a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of rain on the San Joaquin Valley floor...and an inch or two of new snow over the high country of the southern Sierra Nevada. An upper-level short-wave ridge is forecast to move over California Sunday...bringing a break in the precipitation before a stronger and colder storm arrives late Sunday night. The models continue to have trouble with the exact track and the strength of this storm... with little run-to-run continuity as well as poor inter-model consistency. For example...the 00z NAM-12 brought the 500-mb cold pool over the San Joaquin Valley by 21z /1300 PST/ Monday with a lowest temperature of -30.2 c and surface-computed lifted indices of -2 over the southern Sierra Nevada and the west side of the San Joaquin Valley. The new 06z NAM-12 tracks the cold pool east of the Hanford warning/forecast area Monday afternoon and evening and has positive lifted indices over the region. Have made only minor changes to the forecast for the Monday storm. Snow levels will lower to around 4000 feet near Yosemite Monday and to 3500 feet Monday night. In the Kern County mountains...snow levels will fall below the pass levels late Monday...and to 4000 feet Monday night. The models forecast winds to increase Monday over the Kern County mountains and deserts. The 00z GFS mav guidance gave Edwards AFB a sustained wind speed of 30 kts at 00z Tuesday /1600 PST Monday/... and 31 kts at the Edwards AFB north base auxiliary field. Expect gusts to around 45 miles per hour over the Kern County mountains and deserts Monday afternoon and evening. The forecast quantitative precipitation forecast is a compromise among the models and the rfc guidance and calls for up to a half inch of rain on the San Joaquin Valley floor and 5-8 inches over new snow over the high country of the southern Sierra Nevada. Will issue a Special Weather Statement /sfospshnx or wwus86 khnx/ on this storm due to its impact on travel through the Kern County mountains and deserts. The models disagree on the movement of the trough Tuesday...although unsettled weather will continue over the region with decreasing probability of precipitation from the west. The medium-range models do agree on an upper-level ridge building into the northern half of the state for the latter half of the week for a return of dry weather and possibly some late night and morning San Joaquin Valley fog. ==================================================== We will update the journal as local weather conditions warrant. [end update] 10-Feb-2012 7:53 AM Pattern Change Coming Saturday - Rain/Snow Through Tuesday The Weather Gods have smiled on us for the weekend with a series of low pressure troughs moving into the area beginning tonight and continuing through early Tuesday. The latest models bring some low chances of precipitation to the area on Saturday and Saturday night, with a second more powerful storm on Monday. The Monday storm will be COLD, as it will be shooting down from the Gulf of Alaska. Because of the nature of this very cold storm, snow levels are expected to drop well into the foothill elevation range. This means that the chance of snow for Bass Lake on Monday afternoon/Monday night looks good as of this report. As our readers have no doubt learned this winter, nothing is for certain when it comes to predicting the weather during this very strong La Nina pattern. We will keep our fingers crossed that the current models are calling these two systems accurately and that we will indeed pick up some additional measurable precipitation from both systems. The Latest IR Sat Image Showing Inbound Pacific Systems The Latest from Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 305 am PST Friday Feb 10 2012 Synopsis... an upper level high pressure ridge continues to be the dominant feature in the interior central California weather pattern. This has brought near normal temperatures and clear skies. A change is in store for the region this weekend when we return to cooler temperatures and an unsettled weather pattern. Discussion... some high clouds continue to move across the central California interior this morning ahead of the upper-level trough approaching the Pacific northwest. Ahead of the trough...the upper-level ridge remained over California...keeping temperatures well above normal. Bakersfield was the warm spot in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley with a record-breaking high of 77 degrees...16 degrees above normal. Bakersfield also was the warmest spot in the entire Hanford warning/forecast area...followed closely by Coalinga at 76 degrees. The first in a series of upper-level troughs will move into northern California this afternoon and tonight as part of a double-trough system. While this first trough will stay north of the Hanford warning/forecast area...it will push the ridge eastward and set the stage for the second trough to arrive Saturday. Temperatures will continue well above normal today ahead of this system...although do not expect any records to be threatened. Cold air moving into California tonight and Saturday will cool temperatures to near normal. There will be a chance of showers over the southern Sierra Nevada with snow above 6000 feet...and a slight chance of showers elsewhere across the region. The models forecast limited quantitative precipitation forecast with this system...so expect only a few hundredths of an inch of rain on the San Joaquin Valley floor and a couple of inches of snow over the high country of the southern Sierra Nevada. The models forecast a cold pool to move over the central California interior Saturday...with 500-mb temperatures down to -24 c. This may result in an isolated thunderstorm with small hail...although the convective parameters are not favorable. The storm also will bring gusty winds to the mountains and deserts. Gusts to around 45 miles per hour will be possible through and below the passes and canyons of the Kern County mountains. The trough will move east of the region Saturday night...with short- wave ridging over California Sunday ahead of a stronger and colder storm. Rain will move into the northern part of the Hanford warning/ forecast area by midnight Sunday...spreading south to Kings and Tulare counties by daybreak. Monday will see a chance of rain over the central and southern San Joaquin Valley and the Sierra Nevada foothills...with snow above 4500 feet. The trough axis is not forecast to move through the region until 00z Tuesday /1600 PST Monday/ with the coldest air moving in Monday night. The snow level will fall to 3500-4000 feet...into the foothills. There likely will be some accumulating snow on the Grapevine and Tehachapi Pass Monday night...and gusty winds over the mountains and deserts. The latest run of the European model (ecmwf) brings a very cold pool of air over the northern part of the Hanford warning/forecast area Monday afternoon with 500-mb temperatures as cold as -31 c. Both the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS have shifted their tracks eastward...with the GFS dropping its coldest air into the Great Basin. If the European model (ecmwf) is right...there could be a threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the region. However...given the continued differences between the GFS and European model (ecmwf)...and the changing storm tracks...it seems premature to add thunder to the forecast. The models disagree on the movement of the trough Tuesday...although unsettled weather will continue over the region with decreasing probability of precipitation from the west. The medium-range models do agree on an upper-level ridge building into the northern half of the state for the latter half of the week for a return of dry weather and possibly some late night and morning San Joaquin Valley fog. =================================================== Stay tuned for additional updates to the journal as conditions warrant through the weekend. [end of update] 09-Feb-2012 11:59 AM UPDATED FORECAST: Rain Looking More Likely This Weekend! Models are coming into better agreement that a string of low pressure troughs will move through our area beginning on Saturday. Actual storm tracks and precipitation totals remain uncertain, but it does appear now that we will see some additional rain over our area soon! Click on the RED "SAT Images - Warnings - Advisories" button above for the latest sat images from NOAA. The Latest Full Pacific IR Sat Image Showing Inbound Storm Systems The latest from Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 1004 am PST Thursday Feb 9 2012 Synopsis... building upper level high pressure ridging dominates the central California weather with slightly above normal temperatures. There is a possible change in the dry pattern by this weekend. Discussion.... a ridge of high pressure over the region is providing mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures across the central California interior today. The ridge will begin to be pushed eastward Friday afternoon as a shortwave trough begins to affect northern California. This trough will move into central California early Saturday and will bring a chance of light precipitation to the mountains. There may be a few light showers in the San Joaquin Valley Saturday...but many areas will only experience sprinkles. This system will also bring some cooler air...which will bring temperatures back to near normal. There will be weak shortwave ridging on Sunday before another system drops into California Sunday night and Monday. This system looks to be wetter...but the 12z GFS has slowed it down and now holds off on any precipitation until early Monday morning for central California. There are differences between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) with the timing and track of the low and the associated pool of cold air aloft. The European model (ecmwf) tracks it more along the coast while the GFS has more inland track down the Sierra. The track will have an impact on how much precipitation we receive and whether or not we see thunderstorms develop. For now will not mention thunderstorms as confidence is low. A few showers may linger into Tuesday. The trough that the GFS was advertising yesterday for the Wednesday time frame has been replaced with a ridge...so Wednesday and Thursday look to be dry days at this time. ======================================== [end of update] 08-Feb-2012 7:09 AM 10th of an Inch from Tuesday's System - More Possible This Weekend We picked up a respectable rain total yesterday after all was said and done, with the station recording 0.10 inches for the event. Local upslope conditions really helped to wring out as much precipitation as was possible from what little we received over the area. This is a good thing, but far from what we would normally be seeing by this point in the season. Extended forecast models are indicating the possibility of yet another two systems coming into our area over the weekend, but based on the flow pattern, they will be moisture starved by the time they reach us, so percip amounts may be anywhere from a trace to a few 100ths. This could change as we get closer to the actual system arrival, but anything storm related is better than nothing at this point. More as conditions develop later in the week. Here is the latest from Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 254 am PST Wednesday Feb 8 2012 Synopsis... a passing storm system leaves middle and high clouds behind with more clearing later in the day. Fair skies continue as a ridge of high pressure builds into central California producing dry weather and above normal afternoon temperatures to the district through Friday. Discussion... Radar shows the last of the sprinkles now coming to an end as the low pressure system fills and moves south of the area. Ridging is shown well on water vapor imagery building in from the west. Forecast models are in good agreement in keeping this ridge firmly in place over central California through Friday and then by Saturday dropping a shortwave trough into the Great Basin. Models then push this feature towards the Colorado River by Sunday morning. I have introduced slight chance probability of precipitation over the Sierra Saturday night and Sunday in response. Another seemingly deeper and stronger weather disturbance is then prognosticated by the GFS and now the European model (ecmwf) models to move into northern California on Monday an then race down the east side of the Sierra on Monday. Additional probability of precipitation have been introduced for this feature as well. It should be noted that the trajectory of both of these systems is not that favorable for significant precipitation. In the dryer than normal winter, systems in northwest flow such as these have not produced much rain or snow and these may follow suit. Winds may be a bigger issue especially over the mountains and desert. =========================================================== We will post another local weather update as conditions warrant. [end of update] 07-Feb-2012 10:23 AM RAIN UPDATE: Light Rain Arrives Over Bass Lake The fact that we are trumpeting the arrival of trace amounts of rain in February speaks volumes as to how dry this winter has been. But... There it is! Local radar currently shows an upslope generated cell of light precipitation over the Bass Lake area at the time of this report. The extended radar looks spotty at best, so we don't expect much activity for our rain gauge today. In addition to the light rainfall, we have also been seeing some gusty winds in the area. We picked up an 18 mph gust about 30 minutes ago just ahead of the current drizzle. If this light precipitation continues for another 20-30 minutes, we should see at least one bucket tip on the rain gauge. More later as conditions warrant. [end of update] 07-Feb-2012 7:04 AM Hit and Miss Rain Day - Dry Conditions Return in Spades Tomorrow Early radar returns are showing the storm system hugging the coastal areas of California this morning. The track of the eastern edge of the rotation is due North at the moment, and radar shows light precipitation contained in the southern arm of the rotation as of this report. Much of what you see on the radar right now is "Verga" which translated means "High Altitude Precipitation". Verga rarely makes it to the ground before evaporating. The atmosphere is VERY dry right now, so it is going to take time for any of this light rain to actually reach the ground AND our rain bucket. The NWS is still predicting that this southern arm will swing into our area later today. The eastern movement of the system has all but stopped so it is still unclear whether we will see a more moisture rich portion of the system move east and over our area later this morning. At this point, we are expecting VERY light precipitation for the area through late afternoon with totals of 1/4 inch or less for the entire event. Definitely not what we had hoped for since after this system exits the area, we will be right back to the same old dry weather pattern for the forseable future. The Latest IR Sat and Radar Images: The latest from the NWS in Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 209 am PST Tuesday Feb 7 2012 Synopsis... a storm system affecting the coast has brought gusty winds to the area...especially for the west and far southern parts of the San Joaquin Valley. The winds will continue through the morning hours and begin to weaken this afternoon. Blowing dust is possible with the strongest wind gusts. There also is a slight chance of light valley rain and a dusting of mountain snow through tonight. Dry conditions are then expected to return Wednesday and through the rest of the week as high pressure builds back into the region. Discussion... winds have been strong at times over the Kern County mountains and south end of the San Joaquin Valley with Lamont showing sustained winds of 43 miles per hour earlier while Grapevine Peak gusted to 73 miles per hour. I expect the winds to continue to Ebb and flow through the morning hours as the storm system responsible for the winds continues to slow as it approaches the coast. The High Wind Warning and wind advisories will remain in place. Forecast models do keep the winds up through early afternoon then diminish velocities by late afternoon as the storm system moves down the coast. Precipitation wise Hanford radar shows lots of virga as the lower atmosphere is very dry and downsloping winds are enhancing the drying. To the west, Vandenberg radar shows the main precipitation remains just offshore and the push to the east has slowed quite a bit. With satellite imagery showing the low pressure center already southwest of Point Conception and forecast models pushing it down the coast towards Baja California on Tuesday and Wednesday, precipitation will be most likely on the light side. In the wake of the low, you guessed it...another ridge of high pressure is prognosticated to build in over California from Wednesday through Friday with a weak transitory short wave trough dropping through the Great Basin on Saturday. More ridging next week through Tuesday with dry weather in the resulting northwest flow. ================================================ We will be monitoring the storm closely throughout the day today. If we see any news worthy activity in our area, we will update the journal accordingly. Stay tuned to our home page and our Wide-Angle Precipitation Map to track the system yourself in real-time. [end of update] 06-Feb-2012 8:11 AM Latest Revised Forecast Puts Rain BACK Into the Picture Tuesday Models have been all over the place the last 7 days in trying to predict the behavior of the approaching low pressure system on tap for tomorrow. While the exact trajectory and moisture content of the system remains uncertain, it does look like we will pick up some measurable rain out of this thing. For now, we are going to be looking for a couple of tenths over the Bass Lake area, with possibly more if we managed to get some upslope generated energy from the unstable air hitting the Sierra range. We are already seeing the outer edge of the system moving in this morning. Looks like we will be mostly cloudy today, so previously forecasts highs for the area are now moot. Rain will begin late morning Tuesday and last through early evening, with lingering shower activity into early Wednesday. The Latest IR Sat Image Here is the latest from Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 552 am PST Monday Feb 6 2012 Synopsis... after mostly clear skies tonight...clouds will begin to increase on Monday...and then gusty winds...light rain and mountain snow are possible throughout the region Tuesday due to an approaching low pressure system. Dry conditions are expected Wednesday and the rest of next week as high pressure returns. Discussion... looks like I may have to eat crow on this one. After several days of following the drier models...they turned on ME and now all...ECMWF/Gem/GFS/NAM...prodce some light precipitation across central California. Best chance and most quantitative precipitation forecast will still be along and west of the I-5 corridor...but most everyone should get some light amounts. The exception being the far south end of the sjv where rainshadow will be in place...at least until south winds die off Tuesday afternoon or evening. Speaking of winds...GFS and NAM show strong low level subsidence developing from the Tehachapi Mountains into the far south end of the sjv. Most vulnerable to strong wind gusts will be I-5 over the Grapevine to the Junction of Highway 99. Gusts could approach 70 miles per hour at times toward daybreak Tuesday...especially windprone areas through and below north facing passes and canyons. High clouds will be on a slow increase today...however southerly flow should somewhat offset this...and temperatures today will continue well above seasonal average. Temperatures will be closer to normal Tuesday most areas...the exception being the south end of the valley where downslope will linger one more day. Precipitation should begin late tonite or early Tuesday on the far west side of the sjv...gradually spreading east to the Sierra during the day. Quantitative precipitation forecast values will range from a quarter of an inch along and west of I-5...to a tenth of an inch or less remainder of the area. The highest quantitative precipitation forecast values are likely in the western Tehachapi Mountains where strongest upslope along the Coast Ranges could produce a half to one inch in the Cuddy Valley/Frazier Park area. Snowfall in the Sierra will be light and generally in the 1-3 inch range above 7000-8000 feet. Snow in the Kern County mountains will be confined to the higher peaks and no significant impact is expected. The upper low will be southeast of the region Tuesday night as it migrates toward northern or central Baja California California. Precipitation will end and should mostly be over with by mdnt. For the remainder of the week a high amplitude upper ridge will quickly rebuild over the west. This will again bring a modest warming trend. Shortwave troughs will flatten the ridge over the weekend...but at this time it looks like any precipitation will be north of this forecast area through at least sun. =========================================================== We will post another local weather update as conditions warrant. [end of update] 05-Feb-2012 10:37 AM Fire Weather System Activated - Latest Forecast from Hanford Due to the extremely dry conditions we have seen this winter, we have decided to activate our Fire Weather Alert System. This is a highly unusual move, since we are technically in between fire seasons, but as you know, the conditions are hardly what we would normally be seeing in February. The system is currently indicating a HIGH risk as of this update. We will leave the system active until such time as we see a significant reduction in the local wildfire threat. Here is the latest forecast from Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 915 am PST sun Feb 5 2012 Synopsis... weak high pressure and mostly clear skies will prevail throughout the region for the rest of this weekend. Clouds will begin to increase on Monday...and then rain and mountain snow are possible throughout the region Tuesday due to an approaching low pressure system. Dry conditions are then expected for the rest of next week as high pressure returns. Update... blocking high pattern keeping the district dry this morning with some cirrus clouds starting to roll-in. Will not expect much change in the weather...mainly temperatures...as high clouds overspread the state. While weak...surface pressure gradients remain offshore with a continuation of downsloping winds. These gradients will allow temperatures to warm up again across the valley as the San Joaquin Valley reaches well into the 60s today. Yet...because the gradient is much weaker today...strong winds around the Grapevine area of Kern County did not develop. At this point...will wait for Tuesday storm to see another increase in winds. Short range models still progging the blocking high pattern as the dominate feature across the west through at least Monday. Models still attempting to push an upper level trough onto the West Coast on Tuesday/early Wednesday. While models agree on developing a split flow pattern during trough passage...precipitation amount continue to show high uncertainty. Will continue with chance wording of possible precipitation and keep precipitation amounts low during the storm. Will see possible precipitation linger into Wednesday before the storm exits during the day on Wednesday. With low confidence on where the bulk of the precipitation will go during the next storm...will make no changes to the forecast for now. Previous discussion... /issued 516 am PST sun Feb 5 2012/ blocking pattern over the western U.S. Is producing a dry north-NE flow aloft over central California. The offshore flow is also bringing mild temperatures to much of the region...by as much as 10 degrees above average for early Feb. The Block will remain in place through at least Monday...with east Pacific trough energy turning north before reaching the coast. However a developing trough in the central Pacific along 150w...is forecast to push east and begin to split. Northern part of the split will lift north back into the Gulf of Alaska. The southern stream portion will dig southeast off the California coast Monday night and Tuesday as it heads for central Baja California California. This is where problems arise in the models. Proximity to the coast will be key to whether the interior gets any rain or not. GFS is the wettest model...with the upper low hugging the coast and a wave of precipitation moving inland Tuesday afternoon. The European model (ecmwf) is about 100-200 miles farther off the coast...and brings very little precipitation east of the coastal ranges. The Canadian Gem is even farther offshore with the upper low...and produces no precipitation east of the coastal ranges. The GFS...and most its ensemble members...are likely much too progressive with the system as it tries to undercut The Block. The compromise solution is to follow the Euro...keeping highest probability of precipitation confined to the west side of the sjv and western portion of the Tehachapi Mountains generally speaking the best chance of rain will be along and west of the I-5 corridor...with little or no precipitation over the rest of the region. Confidence in the above scenario is not particularly good...and elected to keep some small probability of precipitation over all of the interior Tuesday and Tuesday evening. A high amplitude ridge will rebuild over the western U.S. Wednesday into Friday. The weekend looks dry at this time for central California. However the upper ridge could weaken enough to allow some systems to begin moving into the Pacific NW/norcal. ===================================================== We will return with our next update on Tuesday, with a time dependent on local weather conditions. [end of update] 04-Feb-2012 11:35 AM Tuesday Storm Likely to Remain Offshore and South - Little Chance of Rain for Bass Lake As has been typical this La Nina plagued winter, the Tuesday low pressure system we had been looking forward to is now forecast to split with the southern portion moving down the coast instead of moving into Central California as we had hoped. This means that our chances for any measurable rain have all but vanished. While we may see an overcast day on Tuesday, unless we see some upslope generated local shower activity, the area will remain dry through the period with yet another high pressure ridge building in behind the front on Wednesday. This will bring us back to the same dry pattern we have seen for the last several months with sunny clear days and little to no chance of precipitation. Here is the latest from Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 910 am PST Sat Feb 4 2012 Synopsis... weak high pressure and mostly clear skies will prevail throughout the region this weekend...with the exception of patchy valley fog and low clouds during the nights and mornings. Clouds will begin to increase on Monday...and then rain and mountain snow are possible throughout the region Tuesday due to an approaching low pressure system. Update... first few visible satellite imagery from this morning show some high clouds rolling over the state and a some patchy ground fog. Otherwise...will expect dry conditions today with mostly sunny skies under a blocking high pattern. Yet...with the ridge axis east of the district...will see the continuation of the offshore wind flow. This flow pattern will allow the San Joaquin Valley to warm up under downsloping winds...especially Bakersfield...as may locations will reach well into the 60s today. Short range forecasts show little change in the next 24 hours...so will expect minor change on Sunday as the offshore flow pattern weakens. As the flow weakens...will see a decrease in overnight strong downsloping winds...mainly over the Kern County mountains...as the flow becomes more onshore. This change in the flow will precede a storm still timed for early next Tuesday. For now...will make no changes as all weather elements remain on track for a warm sunny day. Previous discussion... /issued 710 am PST Sat Feb 4 2012/ high pressure at the surface is producing a moderate offshore flow. Occasionally gusty S-southeast winds are occurring along north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains these downslope winds will again send temperatures into the middle-upper 70s in the south end of the sjv again today. Elsewhere temperatures will continue to be about 5 degrees above climatology. Some high level convergence between an elongated upper low from the Great Basin to the central rockies...and a shortwave trough approaching 130w will produce some high...mainly thin clouds today. Somewhat drier air in the sjv this morning has kept fog minimal to none. The overall pattern shows little change through Monday...with a slight warming trend in the mountains and deserts. Models are in somewhat better agreement Tuesday with a shortwave trough approaching the West Coast. This trough is then forecast to split...with the northern portion pushing across the Pacific northwest and the southern portion sliding southeast off the California coast toward central Baja California. This pattern is one we have seen often this winter...with precipitation mainly confined to the coastal areas. Some light precipitation could make to the interior of California Tuesday if the low tracks close enough to the coast. Slightly cooler temperatures are on tap mid-week...but modifying end of the week as an upper ridge rebuilds into Friday. Valley fog should continue to be patchy at the worst. =========================================================== [end of update] 03-Feb-2012 1:16 PM Tuesday Storm Still On Track - Unfortunately, Just a Band-Aid to Our Continuing Winter Drought Fortunately, models are still forecasting the arrival of a low pressure system for the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night, albeit a very short lived pattern change. Precipitation estimates have yet to be determined since models are still conflicted on exactly how much moisture will be contained in this system. The European model insists on keeping this closed low off the coast which would result in ZERO precipitation for the Southern Sierra, but the more time tested GFS model is still predicting a respectable precipitation event. Any way you slice it, we are still in a very dismal situation. This in light of what has traditionally been the wettest month of the year for our area over the last 100+ years since weather records have been kept. The latest from the NWS Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 943 am PST Friday Feb 3 2012 Synopsis... weak upper level disturbances will continue to move over the forecast area until early next week...producing intermittent scattered middle and high clouds. In addition...valley fog and low clouds remain a possibility during the nights and mornings through Monday. By Tuesday...rain and mountain snow are possible throughout the region due to an approaching low pressure system. Discussion... fog in the San Joaquin Valley was focused on Merced and part of western Madera County this morning. The fog and low stratus should be gone by 11 am. Otherwise only some high clouds are moving over central California. Models remain in general agreement with the pattern over the next few days...with a weak ridge continuing over the region between an upper low centered near Colorado this morning and a trough in the northeast Pacific. The ridge will bring continued mild conditions under occasional high clouds through the weekend and into the first part of next week...with temperatures running a bit above climatology each day and patchy valley fog developing each night and early morning. An offshore flow will continue over the region and will be fairly weak over the Sierra. However the flow will turn southeasterly and funnel through the passes in Kern County at times with gusty winds...especially through and below the Grapevine. A developing trough will approach the West Coast by Tuesday. The models have some differences with the evolution of this system...as the GFS shows a wetter more progressive solution for central California...swinging the trough inland Tuesday. This will bring cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation to all of our forecast zones Tuesday. The European model (ecmwf) splits the trough with the southern part forming a closed low which remains offshore and drops south...keeping precipitation chances very minimal over our area. The forecast at this time continues to lean toward the wetter GFS solution but confidence is low. For the remainder of next week...models trend back toward moderate agreement in rebuilding a ridge across the region. This will provide dry conditions with temperatures warming back to a few to several degrees above seasonal averages. ========================================= We will keep our collective figures crossed that this increasingly RARE rain event actually delivers come Tuesday. In the meantime, May-like conditions will persist through the remainder of this week and into Monday of next week. [end of update] 02-Feb-2012 8:50 AM Tuesday Storm Looking More Likely, But Sadly, Wet Pattern Will Be Short Lived Models are coming into better agreement today regarding the low pressure storm system we mentioned in our previous update. While the NWS is now expecting this system to be wet over our forecast area, the system will be fast moving and will only give us a single day of wet weather. Far from what we need right now in what has become a record winter drought for the Southern Sierra and all of Central California. Once this system moves out on Wednesday, high pressure will rebuild back into the area for another prolonged period of dry weather through the remainder of the extended forecast period. The Latest IR Sat Images The latest forecast from Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 847 am PST Thursday Feb 2 2012 Synopsis... weak upper level disturbances will continue to move over the forecast area this week producing intermittent scattered middle and high clouds but little if any precipitation. Valley fog remains a possibility during the nights and mornings. Discussion... upslope stratus persists over the east side and south end of the San Joaquin Valley as well as over the portions of the southern Sierra Nevada foothills and the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. Elsewhere skies are clear across our area this morning as we remain under a cool northerly flow since central California remains situated in between a ridge off the California coast and an upper trough over The Rockies and Desert Southwest. The low clouds are expected to slowly burn off later this morning with daytime heating giving way to a mostly sunny afternoon across our County warning forecast area. Temperatures are running fairly close to yesterday in the valley but a few degrees below yesterday over the mountains and Kern deserts under clear skies and cold air advection overnight. Temperatures look to be on track to reach forecasted highs which are prognosticated to be slightly below yesterday at most locations...but still above seasonal normals for early February. The forecast for today looks to be in good shape so am not planning any updates this morning. Increased onshore p-grads kept breezy conditions over portions of the Kern County mountains and deserts overnight...but the gradients have relaxed this morning and are prognosticated to continue decreasing today then turn offshore by Friday as a surface high builds into the Great Basin. Meanwhile the offshore ridge is expected to build into California by tonight and bring dry conditions and a warming trend to our area through the weekend. However...night and morning fog in the San Joaquin Valley might have an impact on temperatures in some valley locations. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have been indicating the ridge breaking down on Monday followed by a significant upper trough moving through our area Tuesday and Tuesday night providing our area with a chance of precipitation. With the medium range models now showing better run to run continuity and better ensemble agreement with this system during this time frame...am strongly considering boosting sky cover and probability of precipitation for Tuesday and Tuesday night with the afternoon package. This system is prognosticated to move east of our area on Wednesday then a dry upper ridge will become re-established over central California by next Thursday. ================================================== [end of update] 01-Feb-2012 11:27 AM MISSED AGAIN! - Still Chance of Possible Rain Early Next Week The low pressure that we had hoped would bring us some potential precipitation today fizzled. Still... We are seeing some upslope generated clouds forming over Goat Mountain (See webcam), which may grow into a denser cloud base and bring overcast to the area later this afternoon. There is a very low chance of seeing any upslope precipitation from these local cloud formations, but it remains a slight possibility. VERY slight. Further out... The NWS is still looking at long range models and seeing that there is still a possibility that another low pressure trough "may" bring us some rain early next week. Still... Considering the very rain negative La Nina pattern that we have been shackled with this winter has a very good chance to destroying our chances for this rain between now and early next week. Operator's Commentary: The following is in response to a few very disturbing emails we received recently regarding our mentions of CLIMATE CHANGE in our recent forecast reports... Based on the literal volumes of overwhelming evidence gathered by climate scientists over the last 30 years, this dry winter is only a "taste" of what our "new normal" here in the Sierra is going to look like over the coming decade. The "CURSE" of La Nina which is being amplified in intensity by global warming continues to screw us over time and time again this winter and most likely, the next! This IS the reality of Climate Change which is HERE NOW! Not some distant future that we don't need to concern ourselves with! Something to think about the next time an ignorant tool of the oil and gas industry tells you that climate change is a myth! Nothing could be further from the truth! Claims to the contrary from the climate change denier camp speaks volumes as to the intelligence of those who regularly ooze such utter stupidity for the sake of an academically/intillectually bankrupt political ideology! We trust that the majority of those who follow this station are reasonably well versed in weather science and understand the significant threat that looms before us and our local environment, regardless of what political party they are affiliated with. To those who are offended by our weather science based reports... EDUCATE YOURSELF or LEAVE!! We will continue to report based on WEATHER SCIENCE! We are not a TOOL of any political party, ideology, or corporate interest. As I told these unbelievably STUPID individuals personally... I would prefer to keep our user base IDIOT FREE, so if they can't handle the overwhelming truth of climate change and our continued references to those FACTS, I suggested that they find another source for your local weather! Considering that our station is the ONLY accurate weather station within an 8 mile radius of Bass Lake, I wished them luck, and more importantly, good riddance! ;o) Thank you. The Latest NWS Forecast Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 850 am PST Wednesday Feb 1 2012 Synopsis.... weak upper level disturbances will continue to move over the forecast area this week producing intermittent scattered middle and high clouds but little if any precipitation. Valley fog remains a possibility during the nights and mornings. Discussion... the upper trough which pushed through our area overnight is now pushing southeast through southeastern California. Other than some isolated Post-frontal showers over Yosemite park noted by earlier radar composites...our area remained precipitation free from this feature. Meanwhile...skies cleared out across the remainder of our County warning forecast area and a few patches of fog formed toward daybreak in the San Joaquin Valley. Will be making a quick update this morning to include fog this morning and reduce cloud cover for this afternoon across our area. Temperatures look to be on track to reach forecasted highs today which will be close to yesterday in the San Joaquin Valley and a little cooler than yesterday over the higher elevations. 12z WRF and GFS are indicating a dry upper ridge building into California tonight and Thursday. This feature is prognosticated to keep our area dry through the upcoming weekend with temperatures rising to above seasonal normals for early February. The only forecast problem for Thursday through Sunday will be the extent of any night and morning fog in the San Joaquin Valley. The medium range models are in fairly good agreement with breaking the ridge down early next week and bringing a split trough into California by next Tuesday. It is still too far out to tell if this system will bring any precipitation to our area as there is some disagreement amongst ensemble members...but feel that at least a slight chance to low chance of rain and mountain snow will be Worth mentioning if the 12z operational runs of the medium range models indicate a significant trough impacting our area by next Tuesday like previous operational runs were. ================================ [end of update] 31-Jan-2012 11:25 AM Trace Precipitation Last Night - "Slight" Chance of Rain Wednesday and Early Next Week The center of a weak low pressure system moved through our area early last night allowing for some upslope generated showers around the Bass Lake area. Because this low center did not arrive until close to dusk, there wasn't enough radiant heating to permit the upslope effect to really get going. As a result, we only received a trace of precipitation which was not enough to tip the rain bucket. Another low pressure trough will move through on Wednesday but we are not sure if we will see any precipitation from this system at this point. Based on what happened last night with a similar system, we could pick up some additional trace precipitation and possibly some measurable precipitation. Looking Forward Into Next Week Long range models are hinting at the possibility that the amplified ridge pattern that will be building into our area later this week will break down by Monday. This might allow another low pressure trough to move into Central California. The Hanford office remains skeptical at this point because not all the models agree on this solution this far out. They are keeping the region dry next Tuesday, but there is still a chance we could see something a week from today. The Latest IR Sat Images Showing the Wednesday System Inbound The latest from Hanford: Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 1012 am PST Tuesday Jan 31 2012 Synopsis... weak cold fronts will move through the region at times by middle-week bringing cooler weather and some clouds. Dry conditions will prevail much of this week...while valley fog remains a possibility during the nights and mornings. Discussion... well after some rain across the County Warning Area last night we are seeing mostly clear skies across the central cal interior. There continues to be some low clouds and patchy dense fog near mce and fat this am and it might be slow to burn off. Elsewhere temperatures are already up significantly and have updated the forecast to increase temperatures across the central California interior. Models are still having trouble with the next system. And will evaluate whether or not to put in probability of precipitation and will wait for some more model guidance to come in. Right now...I am leaning towards putting some probability of precipitation across the northern portion of the County Warning Area Wednesday night. No changes are expected to the extended at this time. Previous discussion... /issued 238 am PST Tuesday Jan 31 2012/ weak but pesky weather disturbance continues to move east across the forecast area this morning. Had to update grids already to reflect light rain and sprinkles through 400 am and based on the eastward movement this should suffice with all activity gone by sunrise. For the rest of today skies will be clearing over the region however in the San Joaquin Valley the extent of low level moisture and clouds will be difficult to get a handle on. In the overall pattern, ridging will amplify over California today however the next Pacific system is moving east along 40n/140w. Models bring this feature into the northern California coast Wednesday morning and then drive a trough of low pressure across the central California interior during the day. Forecast models again project this to be a mainly dry system however based on past model performance, this may not be the case. By Thursday the pattern over the west becomes very amplified with a blocking ridge that is projected to last into Monday. The European model (ecmwf) model then breaks down the ridge more quickly than the GFS model and actually pushes a weakening frontal system into central California on Tuesday. Meanwhile the GFS model keeps this feature offshore. Not much confidence in the model solutions at this day 7 time frame and will keep the forecast dry. ============================================================ [end of update] 30-Jan-2012 5:03 PM Upslope Generated Showers! NextRad radar is indicating the blossoming of some upslope generated precipitation that just began occurring a few minutes ago. We are actually getting some light rain here at the moment. Not sure if this will be enough to tip the rain bucket, but we shall see. If this starts turning into a more substantial precipitation event, we will update the journal. Check out our home page in the meantime as well as our precipitation map to check on the development of these upslope showers for yourself! [end of update] 30-Jan-2012 11:42 AM Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 953 am PST Monday Jan 30 2012 Synopsis... some weak cold fronts will move over the region at times through middle-week bringing cooler weather and some clouds. Dry conditions will prevail...while fog will remain a possibility during the nights and mornings in the San Joaquin Valley. Discussion... ..will update clouds and temperatures for today... Middle and high clouds above the patchy fog layer this morning. Fog will continue to burn off as high and middle clouds will increase this afternoon. Would not rule out a sprinkle across the northern sjv and into the southern Sierra. Upper vorticity maximum is expected to cross the County Warning Area this afternoon and evening. Post frontal stratus is being forecast by the nam12. Will adjust grids to reflect this mornings update to the short term. No changes to long term forecast. Previous discussion... /issued 208 am PST Monday Jan 30 2012 Discussion... satellite imagery shows some amplification of the ridge offshore as the latest shortwave trough moves across the Pacific northwest. Over the forecast area, the flow is certainly anticyclonic aloft and as the high pressure center shifts east today this will continue. Over the majority of the forecast area just high clouds will prevail today however over the San Joaquin Valley sky cover will be tricky to pin down depending on several factors including whether or not fog forms and how thick any remaining high clouds are. As of 200 am the clouds have been thick enough to prevent for formation however the next 2-3 hours will decide if the fog forms or not. Overall the pattern will be dominated by periods of clouds as weak shortwave troughs ride over the ridge however the chances of any precipitation look dismal. Based on coordination with offices in Reno, Sacramento and Las Vegas I have removed the slight chance probability of precipitation for the Sierra for tonight and early Tuesday as the forecast models keep the threat well to the north. Models then indicate the next trough will pass to the north on Wednesday with another round of just middle and high level moisture. A highly amplified ridge is then projected by both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) models to reside over the region through next weekend for continued dry weather in this very dry winter. ========================================= [end of update] 28-Jan-2012 10:26 AM No Relief in Sight As we approach the normally wettest month of the year, the long range forecasts continue to paint a very grim picture for the possibility of any rain in the foreseeable future. Once again our area is trapped under an all too familiar amplified high pressure ridge pattern that will likely persist at least through the first week of February but likely well beyond that. The latest IR Sat image clearly shows the ridge as an invisible circle just off the coast of Southern California and Baja California. You can see the train of pacific storms being diverted well to our north as a result: While there will be a few shortwave troughs moving through to our north by the end of the coming week, they will only bring us some scattered high clouds. No chance of any precipitation for us from these weak low pressure systems. Here is the latest forecast from the NWS in Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 1004 am PST Sat Jan 28 2012 Synopsis... upper-level high pressure will continue sitting over the region through early next week with generally mostly clear skies...except for morning and evening low clouds and patchy fog in the San Joaquin Valley. ..Max temperatures raised and sky cover decreased in the sj valley today... Discussion... visible satellite imagery shows low clouds and fog blanketing the southeastern portion of the sj valley this morning while skies are generally clear over the remainder of the sj valley and the rest of the central California interior. Gradients have trended offshore since yesterday...so would expect low clouds and fog in the sj valley to dissipate by this afternoon. Temperatures could top the 70 degree mark in the warmest spots of the sj valley this afternoon where sunshine prevails but where low clouds are slow to burn off...temperatures will be closer to 60 degrees. Low clouds and fog will likely reform in parts of the sj valley during the next 2-3 nights and the dissipating process will repeat itself each morning. But exactly where and when low clouds and fog form and dissipate in the sj valley and resultant maximum and min temperature forecasts will be very problematic during the next 48 hours. In the broader scope of things...our weather pattern will remain pretty mundane through the weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure remains in control. A dry offshore flow will prevail during this time with clear skies and exceptionally mild afternoon temperatures... especially over the higher terrain. A couple of storm systems will track eastward through the Pacific northwest next week. The first system will drag a cold front southward through the County Warning Area Monday afternoon. Another cold frontal passage is expected late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Although both of these fronts will be weak and moisture starved...enough of these lift could accompany them to squeeze drizzle out of any low stratus in the sj valley...much like what happened a couple of nights ago. Otherwise...temperatures will cool to seasonable levels over the higher terrain by Monday and change little each day through midweek thanks to a predominant onshore flow. The models forecast an upper level ridge to build back over California during the second half of next week and remain in control at least into next weekend. That means dry weather will not only finish out the month of January but continue through the first week of February. Previous discussion... /issued 426 am PST Sat Jan 28 2012/ clouds which piled up along the south end and east side of the valley this evening have sloshed back northward overnight and now cover much of the valley to just south of Merced. Drier air has made it into extreme northern portions of our valley zones where dewpoints are in the middle 30s...while dewpoints remain around 50 degrees in the south end. The clouds are prognosticated to mix out during the day today and temperatures are expected to warm to around climatology across the central California interior beneath a rebuilding high pressure ridge. The ridge will begin to break down again by Sunday...leaving a general zonal flow over the region through midweek as additional shortwave energy tracks into the West Coast. The shortwave troughs are forecast to remain mainly north of US and are not expected to produce precipitation in our area. The ridge will then re-amplify and track east across our area through the end of the week ahead of a more significant developing trough approaching the West Coast. The forecast remains dry through the period in this pattern...with episodes of patchy overnight valley fog...and temperatures hovering at or slightly above seasonal averages. ===================================================== Once again, we wish we had more positive news to report, but all indications are that February will likely be just as dry as the previous winter months have been. While the welcome series of storms last weekend brought us close to a near normal January in terms of monthly precipitation, our seasonal total is still abysmal with a 40 inch precipitation deficit heading in to what would normally be a month of 9-10 inches of rain. Even if we were to magically pick up that much rain in February, we would still be 30 inches below normal. We will be lucky to pick up half that much this year. This should give you a sense of how dire our current situation is. This will be our only weather update for the coming week, since there will not be any weather news to report. Expect the next 7-10 days to be dry, with temps slightly above seasonal norms and mostly sunny skies. We may have a few station maintenance reports to post here in the next several days, but nothing weather related. [end of update] 24-Jan-2012 9:55 AM Back to the Old Grind The last of the storm systems has exited the area leaving behind cold and icy conditions this morning. We racked up an impressive three day storm total of 5.39 inches which brings our seasonal total to 9.17 inches. The higher elevations of the Sierra picked up over 5 feet of snow during this same period which is also a welcome addition to what had been a totally barren Sierra range. While this was an impressive three day total, it barely made a dent in our current precipitation deficit for the 2011/2012 rainy season. We are still about 40 inches below where we should be for a normal winter, so we have a very long way to go before we will be anywhere close to a normal year. Unfortunately, the next 7 days will offer nothing towards reaching that goal as yet another high pressure ridge is setting up shop over the area and will be bringing us yet another long stretch of above normal temperatures with no chance of precipitation. Long range forecasts for February/March from the Climate Prediction Office looks bleak in this regard as well. While we will no doubt see at least a few more storm systems between now and the end of the season, the usual train of storms we have always relied on in our wettest month of February will not be there for us this year. Wish we had more positive news, but there is no getting around the fact that we are going to be seeing the driest winter on record for our area. Here is the latest from the NWS in Hanford Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 851 am PST Tuesday Jan 24 2012 Synopsis... higher pressure is building over central California which will bring the potential for dense morning fog into the San Joaquin Valley for the rest of the week. Discussion... visible satellite imagery and surface observation show mainly clear skies outside the San Joaquin Valley and the upslope areas of the Kern County mountains. Meanwhile in the San Joaquin Valley a mix of locally dense fog and stratus clouds is the rule. Expect the fog and stratus to slowly diminish today however with ridging building in over the region, the amount of clearing and the extent of overnight redevelopment remains a little uncertain. For areas outside the sjv, the forecast for the next several days looks dry with a warming trend. Periods of high clouds will likely occur as weather systems pass to the north. In the sjv a persistent fog to stratus pattern is setting up and the resulting temperatures may need an overhaul as much cooler and damp conditions will likely ensue for the next several days. ========================================= This will be our last scheduled journal update for this week as there will be very little weather related news to report on. We may post an update related to our Weather Bug data as soon as we are able to select our station for the Weather Bug iPad app and the other desktop weather products that Weather Bug offers. Our station is now available on the Weather Bug website which can be accessed via our D2149 Around the Web page, but as of this update our station is still not available via the iPad or iPhone app, nor is it available on the Weather Bug dashboard app for OSX. We have sent a support inquiry to the Weather Bug staff and will relay any info they provide regarding our missing station. [end of update] 23-Jan-2012 1:12 PM Some Serious Rain Action Last Hour! - New Link Page on Our WebSite! If you have been monitoring the station website recently, you no doubt witnessed a very impressive deluge of rain and ice pellets hitting the station's rain gauge! It reported an hourly rain rate of 1.11 in/h for a short period bringing our daily precipitation total to 1.31 inches so far. We are still seeing light rain in the area at the time of this update, and radar is showing a lot of upslope generated precipitation rotating near our location. The center of this low contains a lot of unstable air and the chances of some isolated thunderstorms is a distinct possibility over the next few hours! The Latest Local NextRad Radar Image On this most recent local Nextrad Radar image, you can see the center of the low just north of the station. See that black dot with the white outline at the eastern border of Fresno County? This is a lightning strike and these dots will appear on the map in real time to display lighting strikes to the ground detected in our area. New Web Page! We also wanted to announce the addition of a brand new page on our web site. We have recently begun sending our weather data to several other weather related websites including PWS and Weather Bug. The latter having a very nice iPhone, iPod Touch and a dedicated iPad app for viewing our station data off of Weather Bug. As of this report, our Weather Bug data has still not appeared on their site, so the link on our new page is currently pointing to the North Fork MADIS Station C6459, which is the closest station to ours on the Weather Bug network. As soon as our station comes online there, (24-48 hours from now) we will update the Weather Bug link to point directly to D2149's page there. The new page on our site is called: D2149 Around the Web and is also linked on the lower right corner of the gray link bar on our home page. Now you have a one stop shop for all of the various third-party weather sites that we send our weather data to. Here is the latest from the NWS in Hanford Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 849 am PST Monday Jan 23 2012 Synopsis... continued cloudy skies with periods of heavy rain and higher elevation snow expected through today as another storm system moves through the area. High pressure will move in on Tuesday bringing the potential for dense fog to return to the San Joaquin Valley for the rest of the week. Discussion... upper low continues to push southeast across the Bay area this morning and radar shows the surface low approaching Sacramento. Winds at the surface continue from the southeast in the San Joaquin as a result however to the south the middle level wind maximum and the jet take aim on western Kern County. Based on track of the jet and upper low, the central California interior will be in a favored location for thunderstorms and the current grids show this well. Oakland sounding did not Sample the cold pool as the colder air was still to the west thus the airmass instability was not sampled well. None-the-less forecast soundings have the best shear in the pre-frontal environment and the best instability Post frontal. By middle afternoon the convection will be over as the system pulls east. Winds will continue to be locally strong but with time the main focus will shift to the Kern County mountains and desert. The snow in the Sierra will target Tulare County for the remainder of the morning and begin to wind down north of Kings Canyon. Snow levels will likely fall to around 4000 feet in the colder air behind the front. Winter weather products will remain in effect. _____________________________________________ That's all for now! We will be back with another update as conditions warrant. Enjoy the last storm! It might be awhile before we see another one! [end of update] 23-Jan-2012 8:41 AM Cold Front Misses Bass Lake - Snow Level Stays Above 5000 Feet The low snow levels predicted never materialized this morning as the center of the low pressure system stayed well to our north. This kept temps well above freezing overnight resulting in warmer surface temps at our elevation and kept any precipitation we have received liquid. The Latest NextRad Radar Local State Wide As you can see from the radar images, this system is a lot less defined than the two previous systems which has resulted in a more scattered and intermittent precipitation pattern. The air remains unstable, so upslope generated precipitation is likely through most of the day today. The station has recorded close to one inch of precipitation since midnight with a current day total of 0.98 inches. Rain rates have been modest with our highest rain rate coming in earlier this morning with a 0.60 inches per hour being recorded at 5:42 AM. We are also seeing some dense fog at the station right now, with visibilities down to a 1/4 mile or less. This system is forecast to remain over our area through most of the day today and then exits the area Tuesday morning. More Questions on Our Rainfall Totals We continue to get emails from some users about our rainfall totals being lower than what they are seeing on their backyard rain gauges. First of all, cheap grocery store rain gauges are notorious for "over-reporting" rainfall totals. This gives these folks a false impression of the "actual" rainfall for their area. Our station hardware retails for $2500.00 and its rain gauge is one of the most accurate of any professional level weather station on the market. You simply can not compare the totals you may see on a $20.00 or under rain gauge mounted on a fence to our station and expect them to be the same. We calibrate our gauge every 3 months and before the start of every rain season. The totals it reports are as accurate as they can possibly be. If you would like to measure the rainfall at your exact location there are two things you need to do first... 1) Buy an "accurate" high quality rain gauge 2) Site it properly! The siting of the instrument is vital to collecting the most accurate rainfall data possible for the instrument you choose. The gauge must be clear of any trees or objects that can deflect runoff into the gauge and thus add additional water to your totals. Mounting the gauge on a fence, a tree trunk, a roof molding or within 150 feet of tall trees is a NO NO! To do it right, the gauge should be mounted on a mast or tripod about 5.5 feet above the ground with an unobstructed circle around the gauge of at least 20 feet in diameter. The larger this circle the better. If mounted within 150 feet of any trees taller than your gauge height your data will likely be compromised, especially during periods of high winds with rain/snow. We recommend the Stratus Long Term Professional Rain and Snow Gauge While this device is still not as accurate as the gauge on our Davis VP2+ station, it will be a lot closer to the same readings our station reports. It takes a lot more rain than most people realize to equal 100th of an inch in the gauge. Relying on an improperly sited low cost rain gauge will give a false impression of how much observed rainfall equals a 100th of an inch in the gauge. Siting is still the most important aspect of setting up your own rain measurement device. If not properly sited, your rain totals will be way too high and far from the same totals you will see reported by our professional station. Even an Expensive Professional Gauge Will Over-Report if Improperly Sited Some of the other local stations in our area are using the exact same Davis VP2 that we are using, but they have failed to site it properly, which results in similar over-reporting errors of 1 inch or higher per 24 hour period. This problem is exacerbated with the addition of high winds which will drive large volumes of water off of tall trees and other objects and into the gauge. Finally... Remember that our station was selected by the National Weather Service to be the official reporting station for Bass Lake for many reasons. Our accurate reporting of rainfall data is one of the big ones. The Latest Forecast from the NWS Hanford Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 650 am PST Monday Jan 23 2012 Synopsis... continued cloudy skies with periods of heavy rain and higher elevation snow expected through today as another storm system moves through the area. High pressure will move in on Tuesday bringing the potential for dense fog to return to the San Joaquin Valley for the rest of the week. Update... winds continue to gust to 41 miles per hour at Pacheco Pass and to around 35 miles per hour near Los Banos. Have extended the Wind Advisory for the west central San Joaquin Valley until 18z /1000 PST/ this morning. Previous update... southeast wind gusts have increased to around 30 kts at The Castle...Madera and Merced airports ahead of the approaching cold front. Have issued a significant weather advisory for gusty winds in the east central San Joaquin Valley through 15z /0700 PST/ this morning. Discussion... light precipitation continues to move across the Hanford warning/ forecast area early this morning...with radar loops showing heavier precipitation over the Sacramento Delta and along the central California coast. A few lightning strikes have been detected along the coast from Sonoma County southward as the upper-level jet takes aim on central California. The NAM-12 forecasts a 300-mb 120+ jet maximum to move onto the California coast near San Luis Obispo County by sunrise. By 18z /1000 PST/ this morning...500-mb temperatures over much of the central California interior are forecast to fall to -24 c or colder. Surface-computed convective available potential energy increase to 200+ joules/kg...and surface-computed lifted indices over the western half of the valley are -2. The forecast of isolated thunderstorms for today looks on track. At 10z /0200 PST/...a few stations in the west central San Joaquin Valley were reporting southerly winds gusting to 30-35 miles per hour. The Wind Advisory is in effect for this area through 15z /0700 PST/. Further south...a Wind Advisory is in effect for the southwestern San Joaquin Valley from 12-18z /0400-1000 pt/ this morning for gusty southerly winds ahead of the cold front. In the mountains above 5000 feet...a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the southern Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to the Kern County line...and a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Kern County mountains. Both are in effect through 02z Tuesday /1800 PST today/. As the cold front drops into the Kern County deserts later today...winds will increase. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Kern deserts from 10z this morning to 03z Tuesday /1900 PST this evening/. The models forecast the upper-level trough to move into the Great Basin this afternoon. Behind the trough...an upper-level ridge is forecast to build into California Tuesday and continue to strengthen Wednesday with 500-mb heights over the central California interior rising to over 5820 meters. There is less model continuity beyond Wednesday this morning. The 00z European model (ecmwf) brings a short-wave into northern California Thursday... weakening the ridge. The GFS weakens the ridge as well...but without the trough the European model (ecmwf) has. Both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS rebuild the ridge over the West Coast Friday ahead of another upper-level trough. The European model (ecmwf) fills in the trough Saturday while the GFS keeps the trough intact and brings the trough into California Saturday night. The trough then drops into central California Sunday afternoon with a 5330-meter low over Bakersfield at 00z Monday /1600 PST Sunday/. At the same time...the European model (ecmwf) has 500-mb heights of 5760+ meters over central California. Through Saturday have gone with a stable airmass with night and morning Tule fog in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley each day. For next weekend...have kept to persistence due to model differences. ___________________________________________ We will update the journal as soon as conditions warrant. There is a chance of isolated Thunderstorms in our area today, so we will not rule out periods of heavy rain, high winds and lighting and thunder. Stay tuned to our website for the latest real-time updates on current conditions and rainfall totals. [end of update] 22-Jan-2012 6:14 PM Rain/Snow Still on Tap for Late Tonight and Monday The third and final pacific storm of this weekend is just now moving onshore, having slowed its eastward motion as compared to earlier today. This has delayed the arrival of the main front over the Bass Lake/Southern Sierra Nevada by several hours. We are now expecting it to arrive late this evening or just after midnight. The NWS is still expecting the system to pack a decent punch with up to 2 inches of rain for the foothills and up to 3 feet of snow for elevations above 6000 feet. Temps remain well above freezing at the time of this report, so we may see rain first with a transitioning over to snow in the early morning hours and into Monday morning. The Latest Enhanced IR Pacific Sat Image Here is the latest forecast from the NWS in Hanford Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 301 PM PST sun Jan 22 2012 Synopsis... another storm system is on its way...and is expected to bring heavy mountain snow to the Sierra and more rain to the lower elevations tonight through Monday evening. Afterward...a ridge of high pressure will begin building and set up over the region on Tuesday...dense valley fog will be a good bet during the nights and mornings for the rest of the week. Discussion... a band of precipitation moving over Yosemite and north sectors of sjv as an upper disturbance acts on lower level moisture along a stalled front. The disturbance will bring stronger westerlies into central California keeping the front pushing southeast this evening. Satellite images show several additional disturbances offshore along a strong upper level jet aimed towards central California. Lots middle to upper level moisture along the west-east oriented jet. However precipitable water images show the higher precipitable water located just south of the jet. Models forecast some of the higher precipitable water may get entrained into a developing low pressure system offshore increasing the potential for heavy widespread rain and heavy snow in the Sierra tonight and Monday. The associated surface low develops off the San Francisco coast tonight. This will result in strong surface gradient along the central coast bringing the potential for strong winds tonight over the mountain passes of the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and Merced area. Snow levels will fall to around 4500 feet near Yosemite and to near 5000 feet in the Tehachapi Mountains by Monday. A Winter Storm Warning continues over the Sierra and a Winter Weather Advisory for the Kern County mountains above 5000 feet starting tonight and Monday. Models continue to indicate weak instability with the arrival of cooler air aloft thus will leave isolated thunderstorms for Monday. The potential for strong gusty winds will shift towards the Kern County mountains and High Desert Monday afternoon. After the upper trough moves out of the region Monday night...an upper- level ridge moves into California. This will result in a stable airmass bringing the threat for night and morning fog to the San Joaquin Valley. The models are indicating another upper level trough may move into California next Friday. _______________________________________________ Unless we see some major storm activity before 11PM this evening, we will wait until tomorrow morning to post our next weather update. Stay tuned to our website for the latest real-time weather information for the Bass Lake area. [end of update] 21-Jan-2012 6:21 PM A Break in the Action Until Sunday Night The second powerful pacific storm system has now departed the area leaving us with an impressive two day rainfall total of 1.74 inches yesterday and an even more impressive 2.09 inches today. The precipitation today fell first as rain and later as a rain/snow mix followed by ice pellets and snow. Not any real accumulation to speak of, with most of the white on the ground coming from the ice pellets early this afternoon. We are expecting the third and final system of this impressive triad of storms to arrive over our area beginning sometime in the late afternoon Sunday and continuing through a good portion of Monday. We are not sure at this point exactly how much additional precipitation we will see from this last system, but based on the temp forecasts, there is a high probability that we will see all of this precipitation arrive in the form of snow. The best chances for significant snow accumulation will come from this last system. Some Much Anticipated Totals! The storm total as of this update stands at: 3.84 inches Our total for the season now stands at: 7.62 inches which is more than double our previous total for the entire season since July, 1st 2011. Barely a dent in our 40+ inch deficit, but it is a good start! The higher elevations of the Sierra also saw some awesome snowfall totals of 2-3 feet with another 1-2 feet expected from the Sunday/Monday system. Again, while far below a normal amount for late January, it sure beats the bare granite slopes we have seen until this weekend! Lets hope that it remains in place through the spring! We are also pleased to report that all of the various station automation scripts performed flawlessly during this first series of winter storms this season, and everyone who was monitoring our website today was able to get the latest real-time weather condition updates posted automatically as they happened! Its always nice after such a long stretch of dry weather to see all of the rain/snow related hardware/software perform so beautifully! :o) The 7-10 Days After Tuesday... Unfortunately, it is looking like after this last system leaves our area on Tuesday morning, the area will once again be visited by another high pressure ridge pattern which will bring back the unseasonably warm and sunny conditions that we have been seeing for the last two months. It will also usher in another round of dense fog for the SJV region which will be amplified by the moist soil conditions these storms will have left in their wake. Hopefully the fresh new Sierra snowpack remains in place during this warming trend and doesn't end up melting and running off into the pacific ocean! Long range forecasts are hinting at another pattern change back to more seasonable conditions in the first few days of February, but it is still too early to say for sure if we will indeed be picking up more rain/snow a week and a half from now. February has traditionally been our wettest month of the year, so what happens in February 2012 will be the make or break month for us having any chance of pulling out anything resembling a normal rainfall season this year. We will just have to wait and see how things go. We won't be posting another update until we see the radar screens light up with precipitation, so we will either be back tomorrow night with our next storm update, or we will wait until Monday morning to report on current conditions. The station has already sounded a freeze warning for tonight and with all the wet roads and walkways out there, it is going to be a VERY icy/slippery evening. Definitely use extreme caution when walking or driving outside tonight. More as conditions warrant. Have a good evening and stay safe! [end of update] 21-Jan-2012 10:43 AM UPDATED JOURNAL ENTRY: Temperatures have been falling rapidly over the last hour, and we are now seeing a mix of rain and snow at 36.7 degrees F. This is right in line with the NWS forecast for scattered snow showers for the Bass Lake area today. The transition has occurred a little faster than we had expected, so there is a very good chance that we will see a full transition over to snow within the next hour. We are also seeing some high winds associated with the arrival of the center of the cold front over the area. The latest IR Sat Image of the current storm systems: Impressive Rainfall Overnight! - Scattered Snow Showers Possible Today! The station has recorded an impressive 3.64 inches of precipitation since rain began falling yesterday morning. Our rainfall total yesterday was 1.74 inches and so far today we have logged 1.90 inches with scattered showers moving through the area. Gusty winds and even some lightning have been reported in the area as the unstable air interacts with the Sierra Nevada. Other "official" NWS stations have recorded similar impressive precipitation totals so far today: Oakhurst: 1.81 inches (CWOP ID: WX6HNX-2) Yosemite Valley: 1.66 inches (CWOP ID: K6IXA-2) Fishcamp: 1.89 inches (CWOP ID: DW0826) Mariposa: 1.48 inches (CWOP ID: CW1522) Fresno: 1.08 inches Rainfall Data Inaccuracies With Surrounding Private Stations We only included official NWS stations above because all of the private weather stations in our area are improperly sited, placing them too close to large/tall trees. This makes them subject to high degrees of rainfall data contamination caused by wind blown moisture being driven off these trees and into the rain gauge. This contamination can add 1.00 inch or more of erroneous precipitation data per 24 hours to their rainfall totals. The more wind we see with the rain, the higher the inaccuracies with these stations will be. This is why the NWS only uses a handful of privately operated stations for their official data archives. D2149 is the "Official NWS Reporting Station for Bass Lake", and the only private weather station in the Bass Lake/Northfork area that reports accurate rainfall data. The latest NextRad Radar images: Here is the latest forecast from the NWS in Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 949 am PST Sat Jan 21 2012 Synopsis... the Pacific storm will continue to move through central California today bringing heavy snow to the Sierra...moderate to heavy rain in the nearby foothills and San Joaquin Valley. After a brief break...another storm system is expected...mainly from Sunday evening until Monday afternoon. Otherwise a ridge of high pressure will set up over the region Tuesday...dense valley fog will then be a possibility during the nights and mornings. Update... precipitation has turn to convective showers this morning. A few vorticity spokes may provide convective squalls over the valley and Sierra until midday. Main threat with these storms will be small hail and damaging wind gusts. A strong upper level jet of 130kt is aligned with the pressure grads from west-east over Kern County. May need to upgrade the Wind Advisory for Kern County to a High Wind Warning. Will leave thunder threat out for this afternoon since models indicate atmosphere becoming drier and stable. However shower activity should continue over the Sierra and tehachapis due to the strong upslope flow behind the upper low. Early discussion... satellite and radar loops show the cold front moving through the central California interior this morning. Gusty southerly winds have developed ahead of the front...mainly along the far west side of the San Joaquin Valley. Pacheco Pass gusted to 39 miles per hour...Avenal has had gusts to 35 miles per hour...and Sunflower Valley has gusted to 32 miles per hour. Have issued a significant weather advisory for the far west side of the San Joaquin Valley through 1615z /0815 PST/ this morning. Winds over the Kern County mountains and deserts will increase later this morning as the cold front moves through...and a Wind Advisory is in effect for those areas through 03z Sunday /1900 PST this evening. Rainfall amounts through 11z /0300 PST/ have been up to a half inch on the central San Joaquin Valley floor...and up to 4 inches in the foothills and higher elevations of the southern Sierra Nevada. Mesoscale- west observations place the snow level in the southern Sierra Nevada around 8000 feet this morning...but the snow level will fall to around 5000 feet during the day in the cold airmass behind the front. Both 06z model and 20z rfc quantitative precipitation forecast guidance forecast the precipitation to diminish after 18z /1000 PST/ this morning. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the southern Sierra Nevada...above 5000 feet and north of Kern County...through 00z Sunday /1600 PST this afternoon/. The models forecast the upper-level trough to move into the Great Basin this afternoon...with an upper-level ridge building into the state tonight behind the trough. This will bring a break in the precipitation tonight through Sunday morning. The next upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Pacific coast Sunday night...with the trough axis moving across the central California interior between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. The latest model quantitative precipitation forecast for this system have come in wetter...with quantitative precipitation forecast/S similar to this morning/S storm. Another upper-level ridge is forecast to build into California Tuesday and strengthen Wednesday. 500-mb heights over the San Joaquin Valley are forecast to increase to around 5820 meters by 00z Thursday. With a stable airmass over the region and some ground moisture...the stage will be set for a return of late night and morning Tule fog to the central and southern San Joaquin Valley next week. ====================================== We will be posting additional journal updates today as conditions warrant, especially if we start seeing significant snow developing in the area. Stay tuned! [end of update] 20-Jan-2012 5:41 PM Precipitation Intensifies Thanks to Upslope Effect Since our first bucket tip just before noon today, we have been seeing a very steady upslope condition persisting from the Sierra foothills, extending up the range through the Bass Lake elevation, and then proceeding up the mountain range to the crest where snow is currently falling. Those who have been monitoring the storm via our Wide-Angle Precipitation Map page have witnessed rain cells "blooming" out of thin air as the unstable air hits the Sierra range. This is a "textbook" example of upslope generated precipitation. Our storm total so far now stands at 0.24 inches, with rain rates ranging from 0.05 to as high as 0.25 inches per hour so far. The NWS is predicting that the rain rates will increase as we proceed through this evening and into Saturday morning. This translates into heavier and heavier rainfall as the night progresses. The latest series of NextRad radar images show a growing volume of upslope generated precipitation moving into the Bass Lake area. NextRad Radar - Close Range NextRad Radar - State-Wide We are pleased that we are finally seeing some significant rainfall in our area after our two month long drought. However, we must remind our users that we are far from reaching a normal level of precipitation for this point in the rain season. Even if we receive 5 inches of rain from these weekend systems, we will still be down by 40 inches for the season. Enjoy the rain! We will be back tomorrow with a recap of the overnight storm totals. Update 7:54 p.m. The NWS is now forecasting the cold front to move in sooner than expected so we may actually see the rain turnover to snow before dawn on Saturday. We will be engaging the rain gauge heater late tonight just in case we see snow here at the station. [end of update] 20-Jan-2012 12:24 PM FINALLY! Literally 2 months to the day since our last measurable rainfall on November 20th, 2011, we saw our first bucket tip of the rain gauge at 11:54 a.m. this morning. Light rain continues at the time of this quick update, as upsloping has managed to squeeze some moisture out of the remnants of yesterday's departing system. Here are the latest NEXTrad radar images showing the scattered shower activity moving through our area this afternoon. Conditions are now in place to permit upslope conditions to occur, which amplify the moisture as it bumps up against the Sierra range and grows moisture weak approaching cells into heavier moisture rich cells. You can follow this storm activity in real time using our Wide-Angle Precipitation Map Because of our extended dry period, it has taken the lower atmosphere this long to saturate enough to allow for precipitation to actually make it to the ground without evaporating. The table has now been set, and hopefully we can now look forward to continuing precipitation through today with ever increasing rain rates into tonight and Saturday. NextRad Radar - Close Range NextRad Radar - State-Wide Our rainfall total so far stands at 0.02 inches. More later today or tonight as conditions warrant. [end of update] 20-Jan-2012 10:14 AM Still Waiting for Measurable Precipitation - NWS Still Predicting Heavy Rain Tonight So far, the pattern change has not produced any measurable precipitation for the Bass Lake area as the first system broke up as it arrived at the Sierra foothills bringing only a few scattered sprinkles, lasting for a few minutes at a time. Only one automated station in Yosemite National Park actually recorded measurable precipitation with a 0.07 in total as of this journal update. The NWS is sticking with their weekend forecast which brings the first measurable rain/snow to our area later today and intensifying through tonight. Saturday is forecast to be showery with a 70% chance of showers through most of Saturday. The unstable conditions continue on Sunday and into Monday with the possibility of some snow for our area late Saturday night and through early morning hours on Sunday. The precipitation is forecast to continue through Sunday and into early Monday. The Sunday/Monday system will be a very cold one, so the snow levels are prognosticated to lower to 4500 feet, which of course will mean measurable snow for the Bass Lake area. However, based on the latest NOAA Water Vapor SAT images, we are not seeing the moisture content in the approaching systems that would traditionally indicate all of the above forecasted precipitation, so we remain dubious as to the viability of any of the above mentioned precipitation predictions. The NWS has been all over the map this week in their predictions for precipitation and none of their previous precipitation predictions actually occurred. This disappointing track record adds to our doubts regarding these most recent round of forecasts. We will just have to wait and see what actually develops as the systems come ashore. Latest NOAA INFRARED SAT image: Latest NOAA Water Vapor SAT image: The blue areas indicates moisture, so you can see for yourself how little moisture is contained in the southern portions of these approaching weather systems. The latest from the NWS in Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 958 am PST Friday Jan 20 2012 Synopsis... weather pattern turning wet as a series of winter storms will impact central California through early next week. A Pacific storm will move through central California late this afternoon through Saturday with heavy snowfall likely over the southern Sierra Nevada and moderate to heavy rainfall possible in the Central Valley and Sierra foothills. Gusty winds will also affect the Kern County mountain and desert areas Saturday in the wake of the storm. Discussion... satellite water vapor imagery shows the impressive Pacific storm system taking aim on the pacnw and norcal. A healthy fetch of moisture (~1.5" tpw) along with favorable dynamics and a ~160kt upper jet all point to some substantial precipitation over the central California interior. The bulk of the activity will occur during the overnight hours tonight and the Winter Storm Warning for the southern Sierra above 5000 feet from 4 PM today through 4 PM Saturday looks to be in good shape. A tightening surface pressure gradient along with upper level support will produce gusty winds over the Kern County mountains and desert where a Wind Advisory is in effect from 3 am to 7 PM Saturday. No updates are needed at this time. Previous discussion... /issued 409 am PST Friday Jan 20 2012/ Discussion... very busy night as we are fine tuning the forecast for the strong system expected to hit the central California interior tonight and continue through Saturday. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts are very impressive with the system as a long fetch of a strong 130+ knots upper jet will pile up the moisture over the region. Precipitable water values are 1.25 inches in association with the front. The warm occlusion front is expected to move into the northern portion of the County Warning Area by 2000 PST tonight and the heaviest precipitation is expected overnight tonight and gradually taper off by daybreak as the front moves through. Plenty of cold air behind the system will provide instability showers to continue most of the day on Saturday and taper off by Saturday afternoon. Winds are expected to kick up over the Kern County mountains and desert regions especially behind the front as the cold air Ushers in stronger upper level winds in association with a strong upper jet. There will be a break on Sunday before another system moves into the region later Sunday afternoon. This system will be a cold system and snow levels will possibly drop to around 4000 feet in the Sierra. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts at this time are advertising another foot of snow possible with this system. The ecm is wetter than the GFS and also is more dynamic. Once the system moves through by Monday afternoon...we will see an upper ridge build in over the area and continue through the end of next week. This pattern will provide beautiful conditions across the Sierra and the Kern County desert regions...however it will only mean foggy and cool conditions for the sjv. We are expecting dense fog to develop in the sjv Wednesday through Friday and with the fresh rainfall it will be hard to burn off in some fog prone locales. Confidence is high with the system tonight and Saturday and is decreasing with the Sunday night and Monday system due to the inconsistencies with the GFS and European model (ecmwf). ================================================ As I mentioned above, while the NWS in Hanford is predicting heavy precipitation tonight and into Saturday, we are not seeing this level of moisture in the SAT images, so we remain cautious about going with their predictions. Still... If the predicted precipitation does indeed arrive over our area, this coupled with the predicted cold temps will result in snow accumulations in our area. Bass Lake residents are encouraged to adopt the usual winter weather travel cautions, and be prepared for significant winter weather conditions through all of this weekend. We will be back with another update as soon as the station begins recording any measurable precipitation. Stay tuned to our website and our webcam for the latest real-time reports on current weather/storm conditions in the area. [end of update] 19-Jan-2012 9:56 AM Storm Watcher Links on Our WebSite As we await the arrival of the first in a series of low pressure systems over the next 24 hours, we wanted to remind our visitors about all of the helpful storm watching pages we have provided on our website. Bookmark them for fast access during the coming storms and future weather events! ... 1) Wide-Angle Precipitation Map - This is our most popular page for tracking storm systems. The page utilizes the NextRad radar system from Weather Underground for nearly real-time updates of any precipitation in our area. In addition to the user scalable coverage area, this page also provides real-time weather data from our station as well as any NWS watches and warnings. 2) Local Citizen's Observation Program Stations - This page provides the latest weather data from all the local reporting stations in our area. Our station is listed at the top of this page and the listings moves out from our location, with the other local stations below ours based on distance from our station location. Use this page to compare rainfall totals and other weather data to our own data. (Remember that our station was selected by the NWS office in Hanford to be the "Official" NWS reporting station for Bass Lake based on our accuracy in data reporting, so our weather data, especially rainfall data trumps any of the less accurate private/commercial stations near Bass Lake) 3) LIVE WebCam Feed - This page provides a LIVE feed from our WebCam that allows users to monitor actual weather activity at the station in real-time. We also offer a smoother "Server Push" version of this page for Mac, iPad and iPod touch users. Click the "RED" button below the cam image for the "Server Push" version. 4) NOAA Sat Maps / Watches and Warnings links - This page offers up the latest NOAA Sat images that we often include in these journal updates. Click the RED "NWS Watches / Warnings / Advisories" button on the top left of this page for the latest local severe weather news from the NWS in Hanford. 5) Station Gauges/Graphs Window - View the actual displays right off of our weather software. This page includes graphs of various weather data as well. 6) Rapid Fire Instant Weather Page - This page contains many of the same elements as our main homepage, but with the addition of our Weather Underground rapid fire feed that provides weather data updates every 2 seconds. This is our fastest updating weather data page on the site. Check it out! ================================== Where is the Rain/Snow? Here is the latest forecast from the NWS in Hanford, Ca. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 942 am PST Thursday Jan 19 2012 Synopsis... the cold and Dry Ridge that has been locked in place will begin weakening today which will allow low pressure systems to begin skirting the area tonight...mainly from Fresno and northward...the next storm systems inbound will then progressively begin spreading southward as the ridge retreats further southward through the weekend. Update... a change in the weather is still on the way as northern California currently experiences significant precipitation. While precipitation may not reach central California until after 400 PM PST today... due mainly to the atmosphere needing to moisten-up first. Yet... the trend based on radar should have precipitation reaching Yosemite first then Merced County and moving southward during the night. In the meanwhile...another cold morning as many valley locations were able to drop into the middle 20s this morning with a freeze warning in effect until 900 am PST. However...this will be the last night of freezing temperatures as rain and mountain snow will moderate temperatures for the coming days. Will allow the freeze warning to expire at 900 am PST and turn the attention to winter weather products for the next few days. The first in a series of storms is timed for later tonight for the highest locations of the Sierra Nevada. As some subtropical moisture was drawn in as the short- wave responsible for this first storm. Upper air observations showing the freezing level near 11000 feet with wet-bulb temperatures between 4000 and 6000 feet this morning. Based on these values ..will maintain high snow levels as this first storm may be slightly warm for middle January. Therefore...will keep the Winter Weather Advisory in effect for well above 5000 feet and expect colder air this weekend along with significant moisture for a possible heavy snow event for much of the Sierra Nevada. Will update to remove freeze warning and a few minor changes to the first period forecast. Previous discussion... /issued 348 am PST Thursday Jan 19 2012/ a few high clouds over the central California interior at this time with dewpoints in the valley around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. However temperatures are only averaging 2 to 5 degrees warmer in the sjv than this time yesterday. Will not see the widespread freezing temperatures like we have seen the past couple of nights...however it will be cold. Well...the long awaited pattern change is finally taking place as the first system is plowing into the Pacific northwest with very heavy precipitation. The models are progging the system to move into the central California interior by tonight. The models have backed off the quantitative precipitation forecast amounts for tonight and the snow is not expected to be very heavy. We are carrying a Winter Weather Advisory for about 4 inches tonight in some of the heavier snow fall near Yosemite. There will be a break on Friday...with the next system moving in Friday night. There is more moisture associated with the second system as a more prolonged upper jet will feed plenty of Pacific moisture into the central California interior along the atmospheric river. The valley may see moderate to heavy rain late Friday night and Saturday morning. The mountain regions will see plenty of heavy snow...especially in the favored upslope regions. The storm will taper off Saturday afternoon and we will see a break on Sunday. The last is the series of the three systems will move in on Monday afternoon and continue Monday night with light to moderate precipitation. The European model (ecmwf) is wetter than the GFS with the last system. The storm will be addressed as we get closer to Monday. The exact timing and intensity remains uncertain at this time. The models are in decent agreement with building an upper ridge in here Tuesday through Thursday of next week. The foothills will see warm temperatures and Spring like weather as the sjv will more than likely be foggy with low clouds and stratus and cool temperatures below the inversion. Have introduced dense fog in the extended as the ridge builds in. Confidence is decreasing right now...as the models have backed off any quantitative precipitation forecast for today and even into tonight. The timing and intensity of the systems expected to move through remains somewhat uncertain. ============================================ So there you have it! As feared, it looks like we are not going to see the level of storm activity we had been hoping for, but anything is still better than nothing I guess. We will be back tomorrow with the latest on our local stats including any rain/snow totals. In the meantime, refer to our NOAA SAT images page and the Wide-Angle Precipitation map to track the systems from your own computer! :o) [end of update] 18-Jan-2012 11:05 AM Storm System/Low Pressure Arrival Delayed by 24-36 Hours - Precipitation Estimates Revised Downward Models are starting to diverge on the timing and actual strength of the approaching weather systems, which is never a good sign for wet weather fans. While the pattern change is still going to take place, it appears that the strength and quantity of precipitation is going to be lower than originally predicted, although the NWS is still calling for 1-2 FEET of snow for the higher elevations of the Sierra. The arrival time has also been pushed back 24-36 hours from what we were expecting based on model runs yesterday. This brings the first chances of rain to our area beginning on Thursday afternoon and increasing overnight and then on through Saturday. So, expect Thursday to be mostly cloudy with the possibility of some gusty winds ahead of the first system, and rain developing over the day on Thursday. There is still time for things to change yet again, but you can clearly see from the latest SAT images that the bulk of the first storm's moisture is still being diverted to our north and hitting northern Oregon and all of Washington state. Seattle is currently being hit by a record snow storm. Latest NOAA INFRARED SAT image: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 930 am PST Wednesday Jan 18 2012 Synopsis... with the cold and dry high pressure still much in control the colder temperatures will continue until Thursday. A wet pattern appears to be setting up for later in the week and through the weekend as a series of low pressure systems are expected to move through the region. Update... first of this morning/S satellite pics is showing clouds rolling over extreme northern California and possibly pushing southward. Across the district...another cold morning as many valley locations dropped below the freezing mark. Looking further out... infrared satellite imagery shows the clouds pushing through the Pacific northwest as a ridge of high pressure remains in control of the west today. Yet...with the southern stream jet shifting north... moisture is moving through the area today and Thursday. Short range models still progging the ridge to shift east on Thursday and allowing the westerly to finally pushing toward central California. Current timing has the precipitation entering the district late Thursday afternoon to early evening and pushing through the district closer to Friday morning. Based on this timing...will keep the advisory and watch in effect for the Sierra Nevada and make no changes for now. ---------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion another cold morning in the valley...but temperatures are up a few degrees in most areas. Expected cloud cover has been delayed until Thursday morning. While it wont be quite as cold Thursday morning...temperatures in rural areas from Fresno south could drop to 28 degrees of lower for several hours prior to sunrise. Reissued freeze warning to include Thursday morning...with main threat Fresno south. Otherwise...skies will be mostly sunny today. Temperatures will moderate a couple of degrees from yesterday...but still at or slightly below climatology. Models are still showing significant differences in arrival of individual shortwaves that are prognosticated into the West Coast the remainder of the week. At this time...it now looks like precipitation will hold off till late Thursday/Friday morning. There is no lead system to produce winter weather conds...until main shortwave moves in Friday afternoon to middle night Friday. Sat and sun look showery but not great qpfs. The second system that was supposed to bring a good surge of moisture sun has been delayed to Sun night...and not that wet now. Winter products issued yesterday are already off and will need to be reassessed pending 12z models. However I did take Thursday day portion out of the Winter Weather Advisory...and moved the watch up from Friday evening to noon Friday. Snow levels were lowered too much Sat and sun. These shortwaves will be in the warmer sub tropopause flow...not winter storms from the Gulf of Alaska. As I mention most of the week...Sat looks like a transition day with a few lingering periods of light rain or showers...and snow above about 8k. May need to significantly back off on probability of precipitation sun. Did not make changes this morning however...as this is the only run of the past few days that kept sun dry. 00z models are now dry after Sun night or Monday into middle week. Hesitant to remove probability of precipitation completely just yet...again as this is a big change from previous model runs. The bottom line this forecast...turning unsettled by Friday with a good chance of precipitation from Fresno north Friday-early Monday...making it into Kern County Friday night or early Sat. Nighttime temperatures will warm significantly Thursday night and continue into next week. Daytime highs will be at or slightly above climatology in mild flow aloft. ================================================ So... Looks like another day of clear and cold conditions, and likely little cloud cover until late Thursday afternoon/early evening. Lets hope that this entire pattern change doesn't disintegrate before our eyes, as has happened earlier in the season with other promising storm systems. Next update will be delayed until we see some actual radar returns showing precipitation heading for our area. [end of update] 17-Jan-2012 9:25 AM Cold Snap Ahead of Pattern Change Early this morning the station recorded our coldest overnight low so far this winter with a chilly 20.7 F. Clear skies overnight helped to amplify the rapid cooling along with the primarily overcast day we saw yesterday. Our high temp yesterday was only 42.6 F. Today will likely be the last day of clear skies as the approaching low pressure systems begin to arrive along the coastal west and then proceed east and over our area. This will begin the long awaited pattern change and the much needed precipitation arriving Wednesday night and continuing through the entire weekend. Quantitative precipitation estimates for the Sierra are between 2 and 4 inches, with a snow level remaining around 6,000 feet, but possibly lowering to 4-5 thousand feet later in the weekend. The current models suggest that Sunday will likely see the highest level of storm activity and precipitation though all of this can change rapidly with such a rapid pattern change as this will be. Either way, it looks like we will finally break our nearly record long dry spell. While these short-wave storm systems and their precipitation are a very welcome event, we must remind everyone that we are now nearly 45 inches below last year's seasonal total up to and including January 17th, so we have a VERY long way to go to even approach an average year in terms of total precipitation. We would need several months of consistent storm activity like we will be seeing this weekend to bring us back to where we should be. Lets all hope that this is only the beginning of a multi-week storm pattern for the Central California interior. There is a 50/50 chance that the pattern could revert back to the previous dry pattern next week which is not what we want to see happen. Here are the latest Pacific Satellite images showing a very impressive storm system brewing due west of San Francisco. Today we begin inclusion of some additional NOAA weather satellite images showing "Enhanced Infrared (EIR)" and "Atmospheric Water Vapor (AWV)". Notice in the AWV image the high degree of moisture in the southern half of the approaching system. Great news for us, since this is the portion of the storm we will likely see over our area soon. Weather Channel Infrared Sat image: NOAA Enhanced Infrared SAT image: NOAA Atmospheric Water Vapor Image: The NOAA SAT images can also be monitored on our "Severe Weather Related Links" page, which is also linked at the top of this page via the red "Watches * Warnings * Links" button. The latest from the NWS in Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 534 am PST Tuesday Jan 17 2012 Synopsis... much colder temperatures expected tonight and tomorrow behind a frontal system that passed through central California earlier today. A wet pattern is setting up for later in the week as a series of low pressure systems are expected to move over the region. Discussion... most valley temperatures this morning have dipped to 28 degrees or lower. Most mesoscale-west observation range from 21 to 28 degrees most locales. Temperatures today will struggle into the lower 50s before another cold night tonight. Similar temperatures can be expected by Wednesday morning. However...as a low pressure area nears the West Coast later today...central California may see increasing clouds during the overnight. This could help keep temperatures up a few degrees...or at least lessen the sub-freezing durations. Otherwise skies are clear across the region...except for a couple of patches of residual low clouds in the foothills of Tulare and Kern counties. The shift into a more unsettled weather patter will begin Wednesday as a series of upper level shortwave push moisture onshore. This first of the series could push some scattered light precipitation as far south as Fresno Thursday or Thursday evening. A stronger shortwave will arrive Friday with rain chances spreading south into Kern County...probably later in the day or evening hours. This system will move out quickly in the fast quasi-zonal flow off the Pacific. There will be a short break in the precipitation sometime Sat or Sat night...before another wet system arrives sun. This shortwave looks like it will be the strongest of the series with a good wetting rain in the valley and foothills...maybe even the High Desert. Heavy mountain snow is possible above 6k feet in the Sierra. The 00z Euro and 06z GFS indicate the upper jet will begin lifting back to the north early in the week...but central California will still be susceptible to some scattered light showers into Monday. ================================================ The next several days should prove very interesting, with the big question being whether or not the jet stream will remain in this more southerly position, or will it once again shift north like we have been seeing over the last few months. More tomorrow as the pattern change begins to really take hold and show itself. [end of update] 16-Jan-2012 9:06 AM Models Continue to Look Good for Measurable Rain/Snow by Week's End Today's surprise overcast is a good sign that the storm track is indeed beginning to shift towards the south, opening the door to a string of moisture-filled systems to move through our area beginning as early as Wednesday. Here is the latest from the NWS in Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 425 am PST Monday Jan 16 2012 Synopsis... a dry upper level low moving over Southern California today...and this feature will open the door for much cooler temperatures during the next couple of days. A wet pattern is in store by late in the week as a series of low pressure systems are expected to move over the region. Discussion... a dry cold front was moving through central California early this morning. However in its wake...considerable low cloudiness has developed in the sjv and adjacent foothills of the southern Sierra and the north and west facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains this cloudiness is expected to slowly erode away today as drier air moves in. Tonite... skies should be mostly clear across the region. With very dry air at the surface...sjv temperatures will drop well into the 20s by Tuesday morning. Have upgraded the freeze watch to a warning through Wednesday morning. However clouds may be on the increase later Tuesday afternoon or evening. This could help limit sub-freezing temperatures by Wednesday morning. A series of weather disturbances are poised to move into the West Coast for the second half of the week. Unsettled weather with periods of rain and mountain snow are becoming a good bet now as medium range models are quite similar. Some light precipitation could arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon or evening in northern parts of the valley and the Sierra north of Kings Canyon. The forecast probability the next several days will be timing of individual systems in the fast moving quasi-zonal flow across the east Pacific. Also problematic will be how far south each system will push the precipitation. The first couple of shortwave troughs Wednesday and Thursday should keep light precipitation limited to Fresno County north. By Friday...more substantial rain and higher elevation snow is possible...and probably spreading south into Kern County. Saturday could be an in-between day...but model timing could be off this far out. The last of the shortwave energy into central California looks like later sun or Monday. Overall... probability of precipitation through the medium range are in the chance to likely categories. However it will not be a continuous precipitation event...as there will be breaks between individual systems. At this time it looks like some very heavy snow is possible in the mountains by Friday and Friday night...and winter products will likely be needed. Central California is forecast to be on the warmer side of the storm track. This will likely keep snow levels at or above 8k through most periods...then lowering sun and Sun night to 4-5k. While still too early for quantitative precipitation forecast...the wetter Euro model has a 4 day total of 2 to 4 inches of precipitation from Sequoia Park to Yosemite...with a quarter to half inch in the sjv and Tehachapi Mountains ====================================================== Station Maintenance Note: 01/16/12 - 11:22 AM PST Rain Gauge systems checked for debris and rain bucket heater system tested for proper operation and optimal heating. All systems are optimal and ready for the approaching weather systems. The Latest Pacific Satellite Image We will be updating this journal daily now between today and the arrival of the first system later this week. [end of update] 15-Jan-2012 7:09 AM Best Chance for Major Pattern Change Since November 20th, 2011! We are starting to see the makings of a major pattern change for our area that could result in measurable precipitation for the SJV and the Sierra beginning at the end of the week. While still too early to say for sure if all of this will come to pass, the fact that models continue to advertise these radical changes are news in and of itself! Up till a few days ago, the models continued to forecast the continuation of the amplified ridge that has plagued our winter weather pattern for over two months now. Here is the latest from the NWS Hanford with more details: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 258 am PST sun Jan 15 2012 Synopsis... there will be another round of above average temperatures today. However...high temperatures are expected to cool a little due to the persistent ridge of high pressure finally weakening. A dry upper level low will move over Southern California on Monday and is expected to open the door for much cooler temperatures into mid-week. Discussion... long wave deep trough moves into the Pacific northwest and will impact our forecast area by late tonight with strong winds along the crest of the Sierra. Cold air will return to the central California interior Monday and Tuesday. Overnight temperatures will be quite cold early next week and a freeze watch may be needed for Tuesday. Northwest zonal flow will set up over the west and open the door for storm systems to begin to impact the area...mainly north of Fresno by Thursday. Precipitation will be light initially with the first system as it quickly dissipates by Thursday evening. The next and stronger system is prognosticated to move into the northern portion of the County Warning Area by Friday night and move south through the forecast area on Saturday. Precipitation will taper off by Saturday night as the system moves east. Both the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) are painting very impressive quantitative precipitation forecast amounts with the system and we may see moderate rain in the sjv and heavy snow in the Sierra on Friday night and into Sat. Snow levels at this time are expected to be around 6000 feet in the Sierra for Saturday. Another break is expected next Sunday as another storm gets organized off the central coast of California for next Sunday night and into next Monday. Confidence remains moderate as the pattern is expected to make a significant change from what we have seen over the past 2 months. With run to run consistency and inter model consistency we are becoming more confident as the time frame becomes closer. ============================================= We are keeping our collective fingers crossed that the above predictions come to pass! The summer tourist season at Bass Lake as well as a reduced threat of major wildfire risks hang in the balance. We plan to step up our journal update frequency this week based on these optimistic predictions for some long overdue rain/snow for our area. Stay tuned! [end of update] 11-Jan-2012 10:57 AM The Latest Forecast from the NWS Hanford - Continued Dry - Record Breaking String of Dry Days Approaching Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 948 am PST Wednesday Jan 11 2012 Synopsis... dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue through this week and into the weekend. A persistent upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to remain in control. ..sky cover increased and maximum temperatures lowered a bit across the southern half of the County Warning Area for today... Discussion... another balmy day is in store for the central California interior. Although high clouds filter the sun...especially across the southern half of the County Warning Area...maximum temperatures will still average a good 7 to 15 degrees above normal today. The high clouds are being drawn northward by a weak upper level low currently centered several hundred miles off the central California coast. The models are in good agreement and keep this low nearly stationary through Friday. During this time...the models develop a Rex block over the eastern Pacific...amplify an upper level ridge along the West Coast...and forecast a weak to moderate offshore flow across central California. As the ridge amplifies over California...high clouds should thin out across central California by tomorrow. A strengthening offshore flow after today could bring some downslope warming to the south end of the sj valley... especially Friday. Although winds will become gusty over the Grapevine by then...it does not look as though they will exceed advisory levels. However...maximum temperatures in bfl could challenge the records of 73 degrees tomorrow and Friday which last occurred on those dates in 1914 and 1980 respectively. The models remain in good agreement this weekend and bring an upper level trough into the Pacific northwest. Supposedly this trough will pick up the closed low over the eastern Pacific and carry it inland across Southern California Sunday night. Moisture is greatly limited with this low...so it will probably bring nothing more than some middle and high cloudiness to the County Warning Area this weekend with slight cooling. More significant cooling is expected across the central California interior early next week as the upper level trough slides into the Great Basin and a dry northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across California. By Tuesday...the only thing that will seem normal for middle January will be temperatures as they cool to seasonable levels. Otherwise...the pattern will remain Bone dry through day 7. On a final note...today is the 52nd consecutive day that no measurable rain has fallen in Fresno. The longest string of dry days in Fresno during the winter/Spring season...November 1st through April 30th... is 64 which was established in 1972. If no measurable rain falls in Fresno before January 25th...it will be the longest stretch of dry weather for this period since records began in 1880. The latest ecm solution offers a glimmer of hope that wet weather could return north of Kern County by the end of next week. [end of update] 09-Jan-2012 10:06 AM Power Grid Update The power upgrade has been postponed. We will update the journal again in the next few days when we have a day and time for the scheduled downtime. [end of update] 08-Jan-2012 12:02 PM Local Power Upgrade Monday 01/09/12 - Station Will Be offline from 9AM to approx. 1:00PM PST PG&E will be upgrading our local step-down transformer tomorrow. During this time the power to our area will be shut off. The station will resume normal operations as soon as the upgrade is completed and power is restored. Thanks! [end of update] 05-Jan-2012 1:01 PM Extended Forecasts Remain Bleak for Rain/Snow We wish we had better news to report, but unfortunately the latest model runs continue to indicate little change to the current high pressure ridge which has diverted every single winter storm system to our extreme north. The northerly track of the jet stream is so extreme that even the Pacific Northwest is showing significant rain/snow deficits this season. Based on the current long range forecasts, we don't expect to see any precipitation for our area through January 15th, and very likely through the entire month of January. As alarming as December 2011 was without rain or snow for the first time in recorded history, a January without precipitation will also be a dubious first for the Bass Lake area, based on weather records going back as far as the late 1800s. Snow Pack Depth Measurements Cancelled Due to Lack of Snow in the Sierra Another worrying record was set last week when the crews who normally measure the Sierra snow pack cancelled their annual trips to the range due to the obvious lack of snow on the satellite images. This is the first time in history that there hasn't been enough snow in the Sierra to measure! Here are the images they used: Definitely some cause for major concern! An Empty Lake This Summer??? - It Could Happen! If this current dry pattern continues through another full month of the wet season this raises the probability for an empty lake this summer simply because with no snow pack in the Sierra to fill Bass Lake, the water level will remain at or below current off season percentages! While it is too early to say for sure if this will happen, yet again, for the first time in recorded history, we may see a dry lake for the summer tourist season. We can only imagine what kind of economic toll such an event would have on the local economy! Something for all the blissfully ignorant sun worshippers to consider the next time they delight in the cloudless skies and 70 degree temps in January! The latest forecast from The National Weather Service Hanford Ca. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 1009 am PST Thursday Jan 5 2012 Synopsis... high pressure will continue to dominate over the region into the weekend. Patchy night and morning fog is expected to continue in the San Joaquin Valley. Otherwise...clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail with generally above average daytime high temperatures across interior central California...especially over the foothill and desert regions. Update... much less fog in the San Joaquin Valley this morning. An area of fog formed in the early this morning in between Highway 99 and 43 from Pixley to Fowler than northwest to Kerman. Otherwise sunny skies across central California. Vandenberg sounding shows a more westerly flow above 5kf. This should result in a cooler maritime flow into the interior. Expect temperatures a bit cooler over much of the area. The only exception may be in parts of the San Joaquin Valley where fog was late to clear yesterday and will be a bit warmer today. No updates planned this morning. Early discussion...satellite imagery shows a weak vorticity center moving harmlessly across central California with just middle and high clouds. This winter any weather disturbances have been very hard to get close to central California but this one is dry. With the main storm track remaining well to the north and weather models projecting this to continue for the most part, the forecast remains dry. Forecast models do agree that an inside slider trough will move across the eastern Great Basin on Saturday. This feature will not bring any precipitation however an increase in wind will occur over the mountains along with cooler temperatures for the entire area. You guessed it...the ridge builds back in strong in the wake of the slider and persists through Tuesday. The latest European model (ecmwf) model tries to bring a closed low into California on Tuesday however if it develops and tracks like nearly of the prognosticated systems this winter season it will be weaker and farther north than currently forecast. ================================================ The Latest IR Sat Image We will update the journal again if we see any significant changes to the current weather pattern either in the short term or long range forecasts. (Station Maintenance Note: Batteries replaced in Rain Bucket Heater Temp Sensor) [end of update] 31-Dec-2012 1:30 PM HAPPY NEW YEAR! We wanted to wish all of our weather watchers a very happy new year! Lets hope that 2012 brings us some long overdue rain and snow soon! Unfortunately, the latest extended forecast doesn't look good for at least the first 7-10 days of January. Here is the latest from the NWS Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 925 am PST Sat Dec 31 2011 Synopsis... upper level high pressure continues to be the most dominate feature of the region. A generally stable pattern is expected to persist into early next week. A pattern change appears to be taking shape for later next week. Update... first few picture of the visible satellite imagery was showing high clouds still moving overhead with some stratus over the San Joaquin Valley. May have trouble burning off some of the stratus as high clouds move through the ridge pattern. Current forecast already has partly cloudy conditions through today...so no updates needed in sky cover. Short range models still progging a high pressure ridge over the West Coast...but shift slightly east through early next week. Models are in good consensus in introducing a short wave trough on Monday...which will shift the ridge axis east...and ride over the ridge through middle week. Will not expect any precipitation from the short wave trough and the ridge will quickly rebound over the West Coast. The ridge will then become the dominate feature through the latter part of the week before a more zonal flow pattern develops. With no significant changes in the weather expected through at least the middle of next week... will make no updates for now. Previous discussion... /issued 306 am PST Sat Dec 31 2011/ another repeat performance of high clouds moving over the area... however a little more moisture has advected into the San Joaquin Valley. Stratus clouds are noted at several airports and it appears that these clouds will move over much of the valley later this morning. No real change in the dry weather pattern as forecast models keep the ridge in place over the weekend and then just clipping northern California with a shortwave trough on Monday. The ridge then rebuilds Tuesday and Wednesday then the next trough of low pressure is projected to move across the Pacific northwest on Thursday and Thursday night. Latest model data suggests this feature will move farther to the north than previously advertised. In this dry year, I have pushed the slight chance probability of precipitation north to the far north only. By Friday and Saturday both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) models drop a low pressure system into The Rockies. The European model (ecmwf) model is deeper with the low however the trajectory indicates it will be dry, however colder air may be drawn into the Great Basin. ============================================ The Latest Eastern Pacific IR SAT Image [end of update] 28-Dec-2012 8:44 AM The Sierra Snow Drought of 2011-2012 The drought that we have been reporting on here for well over a month is finally starting to attract the attention of the main stream weather sites who up till now have largely ignored this alarming situation. Even our local news stations like ABC 30 have totally failed to report on what we believe is one of the biggest weather related stories in decades! Ken Clark over at Accuweather dedicated his entire blog post today to our situation. Here is a copy of the comparison images he posted of the Sierra snowpack data from last year compared to this year. They say a picture is worth a thousand words, and the above comparison is no exception. The current dry pattern shows no signs of breaking down any time soon, so unfortunately the extended forecast for our area continues to predict a complete lack of storm activity through at least the next 7-10 days. Based on our own station data, we are now close to 40 inches below last year's precipitation totals and nearly 30 inches below our 10 year average for this date in the season. All we can do is watch and wait and pray that this insufferable weather pattern changes between now and the end of the wet season in mid-April. Here is the latest forecast from the NWS in Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 412 am PST Wednesday Dec 28 2011 Synopsis... the San Joaquin Valley will have one more cold night on tap for the overnight period tonight. But, relief from the cold is in sight. The high pressure ridge that has been keeping the San Joaquin valleys low temperatures below freezing will begin to weaken on Thursday. This will bring a slight moderation in temperatures and should help to keep low temperatures in most areas of the San Joaquin Valley above freezing beginning Thursday night and continuing through the weekend. Discussion... a generally zonal pattern continues across the region with a series of disturbances passing mainly to the north of our area in the westerly flow. Some high cloudiness in the flow is sagging southward over the central California interior and is helping to slightly moderate the radiational cooling in the valley. Despite the clouds and occasional light breezes in the valley...the cold dry airmass remains in place and temperatures have still lowered to freezing and below at many locations...with some middle and upper 20 readings in the coldest rural areas. A freeze warning remains in effect for the San Joaquin Valley this morning. Models suggest the current pattern will continue through the end of the week...with disturbances passing to the north...but a continued gradual modification in temperatures resulting in fewer areas of freezing temperatures in the valley over the next couple of days. Thursday morning temperatures are expected to be borderline for freeze warning criteria. By the weekend...an amplifying ridge over the western US will turn the flow more southwesterly across our area and eliminate any threat of frosty temperatures in the valley...though fog development will increase as the ridge strengthens. Afternoon highs will continue to run at or slightly above climatology through the period...with precipitation prognosticated to remain north of our area. [end of update] 24-Dec-2011 7:49 PM MERRY CHRISTMAS, HAPPY HANUKKAH, HAPPY HOLIDAYS from Station D2149! Wanted to wish all of our faithful readers and weather watchers a very merry holiday from all of us here at the station! We are looking forward to the new year and hope that we will soon see an end to this insufferable and highly unusual winter drought that has plagued the Sierra for well over a month now. We don't see anything precipitation related coming our way in the next 7-10 days, but perhaps by the middle of January things will start to change for the better. All we can do is wait for the long overdue pattern change to arrive, but this is simply a wish and not based on any of the current climate data. Our hearts go out to all the Sierra based ski resorts who must be having a heck of a time remaining positive about their prospects for a profitable 2011/2012 season in light of the complete lack of natural snow over the entire range. Here is the latest IR Sat image showing yet another major storm system being forced up and over California and into the Northwest by this stubborn, amplified high pressure ridge. This is the 7th such system to totally miss our area since Thanksgiving. Normally, this and all the previous systems would have tracked straight into California on their way east. West Coast/Eastern Pacific IR SAT 12/24/11 The station also recorded its highest pressure reading of all time on 12/23/11 with a barometric pressure of 30.556 inHg. This demonstrates how truly amplified this ridge over the state has become over time. On a more positive note, Yosemite Park is reporting one of their best winter seasons of all time, due in large part to the fact that all of the normally closed roads and passes like Tioga Pass have largely remained open in December for the first time in recorded history. As a result, more locals and tourists alike are able to enjoy the sights and sounds of Yosemite Valley than usual for this time of year, albeit not the winter wonderland views we would normally associate with Yosemite in the dead of winter. The upcoming Sierra Snowpack measurement reports should prove very interesting this year. Many locations have less than a foot of snow and most have no snow at all! This at a time when they would normally be measuring the depth in feet, not in tenths of inches! Until our next update, enjoy the holiday and pray for snow! Sincerely, Station Operations for MADIS D2149 Bass Lake Ca. [end of update] 18-Dec-2011 1:03 PM Extended Climatology Outlook Bleak in Terms of Rain/Snow for Next Four Months If you have been wondering what happened to the wet season of 2011, the latest report from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center issued on December 15th paints an even grimmer picture for 2012 and the remaining wet season. The current La Nina that has produced an unprecedented amplified high pressure ridge pattern over Central California for over a month is only going to get worse as we enter into January and is expected to continue to grow even stronger this coming spring and beyond. The following graphics issued by the center last week paints a very clear picture of what we have to look forward to: Precipitation chances for January 2012 January through March 2012 February through April 2012 Temperature predictions for January 2012 Temperature predictions for January through March 2012 Temperature predictions for February through April 2012 ============================= First December Without Rain in at Least the Last 30 Years Unfortunately, this kind of weather is going to become more and more normal for the west and in particular, the Southern Sierra Nevada. A combination of traditional cyclical patterns such as La Nina, now being amplified by the added dynamic of climate change is responsible, and most climate scientists predict that this radical departure from our previous wet winters will become more and more common, leading to increased chances of drought and extreme fire danger during the spring and summer months heading into the summer of 2012 and well into 2013. We wish we had better news for everyone and had been waiting for this report to come out before posting this dire prediction that we were already expecting, and as all Bass Lake residents paying attention are starting to realize, our days of predictable wet/snowy winters are coming to an abrupt end. More bad news As of today, we are now 30 inches below last year's seasonal rainfall total from July 1st to December 18th, and 20 inches below the average rainfall total for this same period based on the last decade of data. Our seasonal total for this season remains static with a pathetic 3.78 inches with no relief in sight as far out as the middle of next month according to the National Weather Service. If the dry pattern continues as predicted, this will be the first December in the last 30 years that the Bass Lake area has seen no measurable precipitation for the month. I haven't had a chance to pour over the data before 1971, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is the first December without rain in the history of the area. I've personally never seen such an amplified ridge pattern like this over central California in the 28 years I have lived here. It resembles the kind of pattern you would expect to see over the Sahara desert region of Africa in mid summer and is producing similar results. Sorry to have to post such a depressing report, but this is the new reality being brought to you courtesy of Global Warming. The Latest IR Sat Image of the eastern Pacific The high pressure bubble over the central west coast is clearly visible as it diverts some very impressive/large storms to our north and south of California. Pray for Rain folks! That's about all we can do at this point. We will post another update as soon as we have something positive to report. (It might be awhile) [end of update] 09-Dec-2011 1:09 PM Continued Dry Through at Least the End of Next Week The insufferable high pressure ridge that has blocked every single storm system since November 20th continues to dominate the west coast weather pattern. While models suggest a very small chance of precipitation early next week, we personally don't hold out much hope that we will be seeing a return to "normal" winter weather anytime soon. As of this update we are over 13 inches below last year's seasonal rainfall total to date and nearly 9 inches below the seasonal average for precipitation to date. Season total for October - December 9th 2010: 17.46 in Seasonal average for October - December 9th: 11.50 in Seasonal total for October - December 9th 2011: 3.78 in Here is the latest update from the NWS: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 932 am PST Friday Dec 9 2011 Synopsis... Temperatures through the upcoming weekend is expected to continue to moderate as weak ridging begins to build into the region. An area of low pressure may produce precipitation to the local area early in the week. Discussion.... Most valley min temperatures are up 1-3 degrees from yesterday but still some colder pockets where upper 20s have been reported. Airmass will continue to slowly modify and tonight should be the last night to have sub-freezing temperatures. Elsewhere...temperatures in the mountains and deserts are up 5 degrees or more as the upper ridge builds a bit more over central California. Overall...current forecast looks on track and no update needed this a.M. Previous discussion... /issued 242 am PST Friday Dec 9 2011/ Discussion... weak ridging is beginning over the area...as temperatures are slightly warmer tonight. This trend is expected to continue through this weekend. Dew points and relative humidity have also been trending slightly upward and are also expected to continue during this weekend. However...the ridge will weaken by later this weekend as a closed upper low moves southward along the coast of California during Sunday. As this upper low approaches the central California coast...precipitation is expected to begin spreading over the area by early Monday morning. Highest...or likely...probability of precipitation are generally over the southern County Warning Area...in much of Kern and Tulare counties...during Monday and Monday night...as the low is forecast to remain along the central California coast. By Tuesday morning...the upper low is expected to turn eastward over Southern California. Have kept some lingering chance probability of precipitation over much of Kern and Tulare counties during Tuesday while the low gradually moves over so cal bringing wrap- around moisture over the area. Overall confidence with this system is fairly good. It appears the middle of next week could be a brief dry period as models bring yet another low to the region by Thursday. The latest Euro model brings a closed low along the coast of northern California before moving over central California...although the GFS tracks this low further inland over the Great Basin. Due to the model discrepancies during the extended...confidence is low beyond Tuesday. However...have slight chance probability of precipitation over the Sierra...nearby foothills...and in the sj valley mainly north of Fresno for Thursday as showers cannot be ruled out due to middle-December climatology. ===================================================== The Latest Pacific Satellite Images At this point, the huge deficit in rainfall for this season will be getting harder and harder to erase even if January through March turns out to be major rain months this year which based on current trends is highly unlikely. Based on the strength of the La Nina pattern that has brought us this unwelcome dry pattern, we seriously doubt that we will be able to make up for the lost precipitation for October through December. Does this dry winter signal a return to drought for the west? In our opinion, yes. I predict the start of yet another drought for Central California and the majority of the Southwest. I would love to be proven wrong and I am keeping my fingers crossed that we see a major reversal in the current trends and the long absent storm track returns before we run out of wet season. This will be our last journal update until we see a significant pattern change and a substantial chance of rain for the Bass Lake area. [end of update] 06-Dec-2011 10:10 AM Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 815 am PST Tuesday Dec 6 2011 Synopsis... freezing temperatures will continue during the late night and morning hours in the San Joaquin Valley through Thursday morning as a cool and dry airmass remains over the region. Some moderation in temperatures are then expected through the upcoming weekend as weak ridging sets up over the region. Discussion... another very cold morning over the forecast area. Freeze warning levels have again been observed at quite a few locations in the San Joaquin Valley. The freeze warning will expire at 900 am and another may need to be issued for tonight. Even colder readings were observed over the Kern County desert with record lows being exceeded at China Lake (16) Edwards (16) and a tie at Inyokern with 19 degrees. For today under the ridge sunny skies will prevail with some warming over the Sierra and all elevations above lower level inversions. Grids reflect this thinking and I feel no updates are needed. Ridging will continue this week with some moderation in morning lows and warming over higher terrain. By later in the weekend, the ridge is prognosticated to give way to an intruding area of low pressure. The track however is rather questionable for either a potential rain event for Southern California per the GFS solution or a wind event as projected by the European model (ecmwf) model. ============================================================= Fortunately, the wind that had been forecast for yesterday never materialized, but the chance of additional wind events over the next week is high, so we will have to keep a close eye on the sat maps and models as long as this stubborn high pressure bubble remains fixed over the west coast. The Latest Pacific Sat Image As you can see, there is plenty of weather activity going on out there. Problem is, the high pressure is preventing any of it from reaching the California coast. Only thing we get from these passing systems is the unstable edge as they pass by resulting in high winds and extremely cold surface temps. [end of update] 04-Dec-2011 10:49 AM La Nina Continues to Plague the Sierra - No Rain. Just Cold/Wind in Extended Forecast The latest from Hanford: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 1006 am PST sun Dec 4 2011 Synopsis...colder than normal temperatures have settled in over the San Joaquin Valley and will continue through the beginning of the week...in the meantime an additional dry trough is expected to drop into the the region and bring windy conditions to the mountains and deserts as early as Monday. Discussion...it was another cold night across the region with temperatures in the teens and 20s over the Kern County mountains and desert with middle 20s to middle 30s across the San Joaquin Valley and the Sierra foothills. Over the freeze warned San Joaquin Valley...temperatures dropped as low as 26 degrees at several locations with numerous locations 27-28 degrees. Fresno briefly dipped to 31 degrees while at Bakersfield the temperature bottomed out at 32. Some moderation in the airmass may occur night...however another shot of cold air from the north will arrive on Monday. This will keep temperatures 28-32 degrees across many valley locations for the next few nights. The synoptic pattern over the west is extremely amplified with the Pacific Ridge axis extending to northern Alaska and the ensuing flow traveling due south from northwest Canada to the western US. Embedded in this flow is the next vorticity center which will drop south into the Great Basin this afternoon and become the next closed low near the 4 corners region by Monday morning. It continues to look like the low position should be far enough east to keep the associated jet stream winds oriented in a northerly direction rather the northeast which is responsible for a Mono wind event. There will certainly be gusty wind...however this time is should affect the Sierra crest and the Kern County mountains and Indian Wells Valley and the Kern County portion of the Antelope Valley late tonight and Monday. Due to the source region of the airmass the reinforcing cold air will arrive over the region...with the coldest air remaining east of the Sierra. For the extended forecast...the ridge is prognosticated to remain strong over the west for at least the next several days. This will keep the pattern dry and cool through at least middle week. ========================================================= Station Operator's comment: We are currently 12 inches below last year's rainfall total for the season based on totals up to December 4th 2010 as compared to this date in 2011. Additionally, things are looking pretty bleak for the rest of the wet season into 2012 based on current climate predictions. We can only hope that the current patterns break down at some point between now and the end of March and we see a return of the winter storm track. Otherwise we are looking at cold, dry and windy conditions like we have recently seen continuing through the remainder of the wet season. More wind on the way: We are seeing a good chance for another wind storm to hit the area on Monday and Monday night as yet another major storm system misses us and is pushed north by this persistent high pressure bubble that maintains its grip on the west coast through at least the middle of next week. It doesn't get much more alarming than this for folks who were expecting our usual rain/snow amounts during the wet season. Just another example of how big an anomaly last year's La Nina winter was in terms of precipitation. :o( The Latest Pacific Sat Image [end of update] 03-Dec-2011 10:41 AM Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 1021 am PST Sat Dec 3 2011 Synopsis... colder than normal temperatures have settled in over the San Joaquin Valley resulting in areas of late night through morning frost over the rural areas. The colder conditions is expected to extend through the weekend. Discussion... minimum temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley were mainly between 28 and 32 degrees early this morning with a Lemoore and Hanford dropping to 27 degrees. The frost advisory expired at 9 am as temperatures have warmed above freezing. However...with a cold airmass in place...temperatures overnight tonight are expected to be a few degrees colder in many areas of the valley...possibly as cold as 25 degrees in the coldest locations. Thus a freeze warning has been issued. An upper level low over southern Nevada this morning is bringing north to northeasterly winds over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains and desert areas. These winds have become locally strong and will be gusty through the afternoon. The upper low will move farther south tonight while surface high pressure remains in the Great Basin. Some locally gusty northeast to east winds will continue tonight...but with less upper level support the wind speeds will not be as strong. From previous discussion... /issued 240 am PST Sat Dec 3 2011/ The models have been consistent with the next upper-level low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and riding over the ridge Monday. The ridge is pushed westward as the low spins a trough into the existing system. There are some differences beginning Tuesday between the latest model runs and those from Friday morning. The upper-level trough is now forecast to move into the Great Plains Tuesday ... another trough rotating around the low over Hudson Bay to drop into the Rocky Mountains Thursday. However... the trough is now forecast to remain progressive with a northwest flow persisting over California as the east-Pacific Ridge builds back eastward. This will keep dry weather over the central California interior with temperatures trending near to slightly below normal. Sanger Latest Pacific Satellite Image ================================================== [end of update] 02-Dec-2011 11:04 AM Power Restored for Now... System Back Online Our power came back on about 20 minutes ago and appears to be stable, so we have activated our weather computer and are once again updating to the net. The wind storm that tore through our area last night was not forecast and caught everyone by surprise. We logged the highest wind gusts of the year last night with sustained winds above 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. While this is nothing like the speeds seen in the SJV or So Cal, it was far stronger than anything we normally see at this location, even during our worst winter storms. It really made a mess of things outside, especially for those of us who have already put up their Christmas decorations! :o/ We will keep our fingers crossed that the power remains on and stable. The latest forecast calls for diminishing winds this morning and a return to sunny and very dry conditions through all of next week. Here is the latest forecast from the NWS in Hanford Ca. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 940 am PST Friday Dec 2 2011 Synopsis... area of low pressure located over northwest Arizona continues to produce brisk winds over the Sierra Nevada. Clear skies, light winds and cooler than normal temperatures have settled in over the San Joaquin Valley resulting in areas of late night through morning frost over the rural areas. Update... wind event has finally ended across central California with only breezy conditions continuing this afternoon. Main concern now is the possible frost expected tonight through early Saturday morning. Min temperatures this morning ranged from 30 to 33 degree-f over the south end of the valley with middle to upper 30s across the rest of the valley. With a ridge of high pressure now taking control...may see more widespread frost by Saturday morning. Forecast on track with this thinking...so will only update to remove wind and today/S frost products. Otherwise...benign weather pattern will exist over the West Coast with temperatures being the main issue. Models to forecast a secondary upper low skirting California and mainly tracking through the Great Basin. This secondary low will remain too far east to produce strong winds over central California. Yet...will may experience a breeze today as the upper low drops toward Arizona. ==== Previous discussion... /issued 245 am PST Friday Dec 2 2011/ satellite loops show the upper-level trough over the Desert Southwest and the southern half of California this morning...with a short-wave dropping through the Pacific northwest into the trough. A few high clouds were moving across the northern part of the Hanford warning/forecast area...but should have little...if any...impact on the weather. Winds have subsided below warning criteria across the southern Sierra Nevada...so will let the High Wind Warning for the foothills and higher elevations expire at 12z /0400 PST/. Will also allow the Wind Advisory for the Tulare County mountains to expire. Per coordination with weather forecast office Oxnard...will extend the Wind Advisory for the Kern County mountains and deserts through 18z /1000 PST/ this morning. The models do have fairly strong surface-pressure gradients over the region through at least 12z...and cannot rule out that the winds could increase to near advisory criteria...especially over the eastern deserts and the Indian Wells Valley. One wind concern is that the models forecast the surface-pressure gradients to tighten again tonight as the short-wave moves over the Great Basin as it drops into the trough. Gradients are forecast to be lower than with Thursday/S event...which saw the peak wind at Fresno come within 3 miles per hour of the record gust for December /45 miles per hour vice 48 miles per hour on December 28th 1991/. The next forecast concern is the threat of frost this morning. At 10z /0200 PST/...the temperature at the Hanford Municipal Airport had fallen to 31 degrees and dew-points in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley were mostly in the middle 20s to lower 30s. As winds subside...temperatures will continue to fall and could reach 32 degrees by daybreak with 2-4 hours between 29-32 degrees later this morning. Conditions are more favorable for a more widespread frost with temperatures a couple of degrees colder Saturday night. The weather pattern is forecast to remain stagnant through the first part of next week. An upper-level low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to ride over the top of the ridge...flattening it and pushing the ridge westward as a trough rotating around the low drops into the Pacific northwest around midweek. The 00z European model (ecmwf) is more robust with the trough...digging it into central and Southern California next Thursday. Differences between the European model (ecmwf) and GFS become more pronounced next Friday into the weekend...lowering confidence in the forecast for the end of the 7-day forecast period. ========================================================================= [end of update] 01-Dec-2011 8:09 PM Power Outage Caused by High Winds! The power has gone out here at our location so we must shut down the system until power is restored. The web site will not be updated during the outage. [end of update] 01-Dec-2011 3:23 PM Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 256 PM PST Thursday Dec 1 2011 Synopsis... A stationary low pressure center is located over Southern California. Strong pressure gradient between this low and higher pressure to the north is creating Mono winds over the Sierra Nevada and foothills and brisk winds over parts of the San Joaquin Valley. Frost is possible over parts of the valley tonight in the rural areas where the winds become lightest. Discussion... The weather remains highly diversified in the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. In the southeastern portion of the valley...winds have been very light and temperatures are in the 50s with humidities averaging about 55 percent. The remainder of the valley has been very windy with temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s and humidities between 10 and 15 percent. The highest wind gusts in the sj valley today ranged from 48 miles per hour at Castle AFB to about 65 miles per hour along and just west of the I-5 corridor. Strong winds will likely persist until about sunset...then diminish and become relatively light in most areas by 6 PM. In the Kern County desert...however...brisk northerly winds will likely persist for several more hours...perhaps up until midnight...in which case the Wind Advisory for this area might need to be extended a little longer. Will leave this for the evening crew to assess. The storm responsible for the strong winds is currently centered near Yuma Arizona. Although the core of the 300 mb jet (110+ kts) will remain over the County Warning Area tonight...surface pressure gradients will fortunately decouple and allow the winds to abate rather quickly early tonight in most areas. Weak ridging aloft and at the surface will gradually build into the County Warning Area later tonight and Friday. The overall pattern will change very little...however...through the weekend. During this time...a high amplitude ridge will remain anchored over the eastern Pacific while upper level disturbances ride over the top of this ridge and maintain...if not deepen...an upper level trough over the Great Basin. This is a pattern that will continue to bring a northerly flow of dry...cool air into California directly out of British Columbia. Once the wind dies down tonight... frost will become a concern in the sj valley. It was felt that there might be just enough wind present to minimize that threat later tonight. Nonetheless...in the normally coldest...wind sheltered localities of the sj valley...temperatures will briefly drop just below 32 degrees around daybreak. And in the southeastern sj valley where the driest air has not yet trickled in...some dense fog could also accompany these temperatures late tonight. Frost is likely to become more widespread in the sj valley this weekend with a longer duration of below freezing temperatures. The only places that might escape a frost in the sj valley will be in the major urban areas such as Fresno and Bakersfield. Otherwise... temperatures will generally average a good 3 to 5 degrees below normal throughout the central California interior this weekend. Temperatures will moderate somewhat during the early to middle part of next week as the epac ridge builds eastward. By Tuesday or Wednesday... night and morning fog might become more of an issue in the sj valley than frost. The extended models forecast another upper level trough to drop out of western Canada next Thursday and track like an inside slider into the Great Basin next Thursday night and Friday. The ecm tracks this system a bit farther west than the GFS and brings some precipitation into the Sierra by then while the GFS keeps the central California dry. Considering how well the GFS has been performing lately...would not be surprised if the pattern remained dry at the end of next week. Only with time and several more model runs will we be able to answer that definitively. ============================================ [end of update] 01-Dec-2011 7:10 AM Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 340 am PST Thursday Dec 1 2011 Synopsis... winds of breezy to strong and gusty criteria are expected in the region through Friday. Much colder temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday...with frosty conditions in the San Joaquin Valley. Discussion... satellite loops show the upper-level trough moving south through the Hanford warning/forecast area this morning with the embedded low dropping into the lower Colorado River valley. At the surface...a high is over the Pacific northwest while a low is over western Arizona. This pattern has created very tight surface-pressure gradients over central California. At 09z /0100 PST/...the San Francisco-Las Vegas gradient was 17.3 mb...and the Salinas-Reno gradient was -7.7 mb. This has set the stage for a possible Mono wind event later this morning. There are three main weather concerns for the central California interior this morning. The first is the winds in the mountains... deserts and the San Joaquin Valley. Have already seen advisory-level gusts over parts of the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and in the Indian Wells Valley. Only a few places have reached warning thresholds in the southern Sierra Nevada. However...model guidance indicates that the strongest winds will be around 18z /1000 PST/ this morning...and 850-700-mb winds will be northeast up to 50 kts over much of the region. The southern Sierra Nevada foothills have not seen high winds yet...but if the winds over the southern Sierra Nevada pick up later this morning...high winds could work their way down to the surface and funnel through favorable passes and canyons. For these reasons...will keep the High Wind Warning in place for the southern Sierra Nevada...including the foothills...north of Kings Canyon and the Wind Advisory for the central and southwestern San Joaquin Valley and the Indian Wells Valley. Also will issue wind advisories for the Kern and Tulare County mountains and the southeastern Kern County desert. The second concern is patchy fog that developed mainly over the southwestern San Joaquin Valley Wednesday evening. At 1025z /0225 PST/...the visibilities at the Municipal airports at Reedley... Tulare and Hanford were one-quarter mile or less. Visibilities at Delano...Porterville and Visalia had improved to 3 miles or better...but could decrease toward daybreak. Have issued a significant weather advisory for the fog as satellite loops show it confined mainly to western Tulare County. The third concern is the threat of frost from the cold...dry airmass behind the cold front. At 10z /0200 PST/ this morning...dewpoints in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley were down as much as 20 degrees from 10z Wednesday morning. As the surface-pressure gradients begin to relax tonight and winds subside...temperatures in the coldest...wind-sheltered areas Friday morning will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s for several hours. Saturday morning could see more widespread frost as a northerly flow aloft sets up over California. Will issue frost advisories for the central and southern San Joaquin Valley for both Friday and Saturday mornings with the morning forecast package. The models are in good agreement with the upper-level trough deepening over the Great Basin Friday and Friday night as a short- wave drops into the back side of the trough. As the trough deepens... the upper-level ridge over the east Pacific amplifies...creating the above-mentioned northerly flow aloft over California. This flow will continue to bring colder air into the state...with patchy morning frost for the first half of next week. Another trough begins to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska next morning. This system is forecast to ride over the ridge...weakening it before the trough drops into the northern rockies. The models deepen the trough southwestward through the Great Basin and into California next Thursday...with the GFS having precipitation mainly over the southern half of the Hanford warning/forecast area. The European model (ecmwf) does not bring precipitation to the area until Friday. Have added probability of precipitation to the southern half of the forecast area for next Thursday /day 8/ but kept below 15 percent for now. ===================================== [end of update] 29-Nov-2011 12:24 PM Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 1125 am PST Tuesday Nov 29 2011 Synopsis... high pressure continues over the area with nighttime/morning fog over the San Joaquin Valley through Wednesday. A change in the weather is in store by Wednesday evening as a low pressure system approaches the area. This system will move southward over the area Thursday and is expected to bring mainly gusty winds to the area Wednesday night and Thursday. In addition...much cooler temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday behind this system. Update... fog and dz over the sjv this am and will lower temperatures and increase clouds below 200 feet. Models are still advertising a very strong system to move into the region tomorrow. Winds will be the biggest threat. Expect winds to increase tomorrow and continue into Thursday across the west side of the sjv. Mono wind event over the Sierra and into the Sierra foothills will blow starting Thursday and continue into Friday. Will update for temperatures and weather today and look closer at wind for tomorrow. Previous discussion... /issued 328 am PST Tuesday Nov 29 2011 Discussion...a mix of fog and drizzle this morning over the San Joaquin Valley with visibility not too low at several normally foggy locations. Without doubt there are areas with below 1/4 mile visibility however if the drizzle continues even these areas may see an increase in visibility as the late night and morning wears on. Satellite imagery shows the quick reformation of the fog over the Sacramento Valley after an afternoon clearing. Cirrus clouds continue to stream across the southern portion of the forecast area and this is obscuring the fog and stratus over this portion of the San Joaquin Valley. For today, an afternoon breakout of the stratus and fog seems probable however I am betting on later than sooner and have kept temperatures down accordingly. Outside the sjv another sunny day across the north and a clearing day over the south is on tap as satellite images show the back edge of the clouds about 250 miles offshore. The big change in the weather pattern will arrive beginning Wednesday as forecast models lift the big area of low pressure out near 50n/137w up and over the top of the mean West Coast ridge later today and tonight. On Wednesday this feature is prognosticated to dive southward from Idaho and end up near the Colorado River south of Las Vegas on Thursday per the GFS and European model (ecmwf) models. The latest run of the NAM model has the low taking a track farther east...ending up over southern Arizona. The main difference in these two solutions is the strength and duration of a very windy period over the Sierra Nevada and the likely Hood of a Mono wind event. The GFS has been very steady for several days in its tracking of the low and with the European model (ecmwf) model in agreement is the preferred solution. Given this a high wind watch for Mono winds will be issued for zones 93 and 96 covering the Wednesday night through Friday morning time period. Given the north to eventually easterly flow across the Sierra, I have remove the probability of precipitation in this area as it should be a dry, but cold downsloping wind event. Over the Kern County mountains and desert areas, winds will become an issue as the gradient and upper level winds align for a significant northeast wind event. Will need to closely watch the Kern County mountain area for possible headlines. The pattern for the weekend looks dry but chilly as the flow will remain from the north as the low ejects eastward. To add yet another round of uncertainty to this very amplified pattern, the latest European model (ecmwf) model after ejecting the first low, drop another right into place over southern Nevada and the Colorado River valley by Sunday. The GFS doesn't have nearly as strong of a low, rather a trough of low pressure instead in the northerly flow. Stay tuned for this one. All in all dry through the period, windy then colder sums it up pretty well. ====================================================================== [end of update] 28-Nov-2011 9:45 AM Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 437 am PST Monday Nov 28 2011 Synopsis... high pressure continues over the region with nighttime/morning fog over the San Joaquin Valley through mid-week. By Thursday...a low pressure system will bring a chance of precipitation to the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains. However...the main threat will be gusty winds in the lower elevations...including the Kern County desert areas and the west side of the San Joaquin Valley. Discussion... the strong upper ridge of the past 2 days is gradually being flattened as a weak shortwave trough moves through the Pacific northwest. Considerable middle and high cloudiness is associated with the trough. Dense fog developed in the valley prior to the arrival of the higher cloud deck...and thus far the cloud deck has had little affect on the fog. These clouds may also inhibit burnoff later today. While visibilities should improve to more than a quarter of a mile by late morning,,,it could remain rather murky much of the day. Dont expect much sunshine until later in the afternoon if any at all. The shortwave passage later today is still expected to mix the lower layer of the atmo enough to keep fog a little more patchy in nature tonight...or at least not quite as dense. It is also possible that the upper trough may pass over the top of the inversion without disturbing it...resulting in more dense fog tonight. Will just have to play this on an hour by hour basis later today. Clouds across the region will help lower maximum temperatures a few degrees today from yesterday...but it will still be well above normal outside of the valley fog and low clouds. Little change is expected Tuesday as the Flat Ridge remains over the area. Models continue to show a an inside slider digging south into the Great Basin Wednesday...then developing into a closed upper low over socal Thursday. The associated cold front will move through late Wednesday or early Thursday. It still looks like little if any precipitation will occur with the trough...and any that does occur will be confined to the mountains and deserts. Gusty winds may develop Thursday behind the front as highly modified Canadian air builds in from the north. However this will depend on where the upper low actually develops. East-NE winds will be strongest Thursday and Friday over the Sierra crest. There is a small chance a Mono wind event could occur in favored canyons of the southern Sierra Thursday night and early Friday. However surface pressures in the Great Basin are marginal for a strong Mono wind event. Would usually like to see a 1040 mb high...but models only approach 1035 mb/S. The upper trough will be progressive...and should be over northern Mexico and Arizona by Sat with a dry northerly flow across central California through the weekend. With drier air in place...fog will patchy if any at all through the weekend. Good radiational cooling at night may produce the first widespread frost of the season in the sjv. Depending on amount of clouds...frost is possible Friday and/or Sat mornings. A hard freeze is not expected. Otherwise temperatures in the medium range are expected to be close to seasonal averages Friday into early next week. ====================================================================== [end of update] 25-Nov-2011 9:26 AM Sunny Days With No Serious Storm Threat for Next 10 Days Looks like this year's La Nina is already starting to live up to this pattern's NORMAL effects, which translates into increased storm activity for the NorthWest, but equally dry and unseasonably warm for most of California and the SW of the US. For today on, high pressure has parked itself off the California Coast and will continue diverting all winter storms to the north and south of our area. This type of chaotic pattern doesn't bode well for our local snow pack and overall water table stability heading into the summer of 2012. Our rainfall totals for 2010 compared to 2011 speak volumes November 2010: 5.34 inches - 2011: 1.71 Seasonal Total Comparison through November 2010 vs 2011: 2010: 10.84 in 2011: 3.78 inches Difference since July 1st: 7.06 inches As you can see, things are already a lot drier this season than last year's unusually WET La Nina which was likely a once in the last 100 years level anomaly. LA Nina typically diverts the normal storm track we would normally expect this time of year to the north because of the warped and unbalance Jet Stream, leaving us and areas south of us high and dry when it comes to winter storm activity going forward. Unfortunately, the current long-range forecast for our area is predicting just that. Sat maps show high pressure building offshore resulting in fair skies for our area for extended periods. The current large high is building now and will remain parked over the state for at least the next 7 days. This is what a REAL La Nina pattern results in for Bass Lake. Sunny days in the Sierra along with heavy morning and evening fog for most of the SJV for the foreseeable future. If the dry and sunny trend continues through March, we can expect a nail biting fire season in the summer of 2012 with risk levels reaching into the EXTREME range. Pray for rain, and LOTS of it between now and March 1st! Otherwise, we could see one of the worst wildfire seasons in decades here during the summer and fall of 2012. December will prove to be the month that makes or breaks the trend. If we end up with a relatively dry December, then yet another drought looks likely for most of California heading in to the summer months of 2012. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 434 am PST Friday Nov 25 2011 Synopsis... High pressure is expected to move into the region today through the weekend bringing dry conditions. However...with the ridging in place and moisture from the recent rains...night and morning dense fog is anticipated through the weekend. Discussion... Only some patchy mainly light fog has developed around the San Joaquin Valley this morning as areas of stratus have piled up around the edges and over southern portions. A ridge of high pressure is building in from the Pacific and this will generally bring dry and warming conditions to the central California interior through the weekend...except valley fog development will become more prevalent as the ridge strengthens. This will inhibit warming in the valley as the fog/stratus struggles to burn of each day and is expected to become a quasi permanent feature for several days. GFS continues to show a relatively weak shortwave trough tracking across the region by Tuesday while the European model (ecmwf) keeps the disturbance farther north and east with little to no effect on US. The European model (ecmwf) then forecasts an incoming system for the end of the forecast period...while the latest GFS run no longer shows this feature. Our forecast at this time shows some improvement in the fog regime by the end of the week...a bit more in line with the latest European model (ecmwf) run. =================================================== [end of update] 23-Nov-2011 11:16 AM Thanksgiving Day Forecast for Bass Lake - Cloudy with Little Chance of Measurable Rain Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 1039 am PST Wednesday Nov 23 2011 Synopsis... For Thanksgiving there is a very slight chance of rain showers in the Valley. High pressure is expected to move into the region by Friday through the weekend bringing dry conditions. However...with the ridging in place and moisture from the recent rains...night and morning dense fog is anticipated to return to the San Joaquin Valley Friday night/Saturday and again Saturday night/Sunday. Update... Areas of fog continue this morning in parts of the San Joaquin Valley mainly over Kings and Fresno counties. Think fog will burn off around midday with wind mixing due to an increase in south winds as a frontal system nears central California. Additional middle level clouds ahead of the front should provide thicker cloud cover towards the Central Valley along with cooler temperatures. While the Bakersfield area should see the warmer temperature with less clouds and downsloping winds off the tehachapis. No updates planned this morning. Early discussion... Patchy dense fog has once again formed over the usual fog prone areas of the San Joaquin Valley and it will persist through middle morning. Fog is not as widespread as last night and the Special Weather Statement will suffice. Lots of cirrus clouds are streaming into central California well out ahead of now very impressive Pacific weather system. If this weather system were to come ashore as a single entity it would certainly be a significant weather maker. Forecast models however continue to steadfastly split the system into two parts with one heading across northern California and Oregon and a second, developing low pressure system heading in a very familiar track for this season, southeast while remaining well offshore with landfall in northern Baja California California. Given this scenario the most likely outcome will be a slight chance of rain on Thanksgiving day as the stretched out and weakening baroclinic zone between the two systems moves across the forecast area. By Friday the low is prognosticated to move into Arizona with ridging building in over central California. This ridge will be the main weather feature for several days and a warmer than normal and dry forecast is in the offing for all areas outside the San Joaquin Valley where a strong temperature inversion will keep fog and stratus clouds in place for the duration. Cool and dreary weather will be the rule at elevations below 1500 feet. ============================================================== Station Operator's comments: Looks like so far this year, the strong La Nina pattern is behaving normally, which translates into far less storm activity for our area through the remainder of the winter. Lets hope that this extreme northerly Jet Sream doesn't hold true through the entire wet season! Otherwise, we are looking at a significant deficit in precipitation for the 2011/2012 wet season. [end of update] 22-Nov-2011 7:46 AM Strong/Wet Thanksgiving Day Storm Looking Less Likely Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 258 am PST Tuesday Nov 22 2011 Synopsis... mostly clear skies and valley fog will prevail through Wednesday due to high pressure over the area. Another storm system will bring the next chance of precipitation into the central California interior beginning Wednesday evening and continuing into Thanksgiving day. Another ridge of high pressure is expected by the weekend along with dry conditions. However...night and morning fog is anticipated to return to the San Joaquin Valley by Friday night/Saturday. Discussion... as expected dense fog has formed over the San Joaquin Valley and visibilities have crashed. Expect this situation to persist through middle morning. I do expect a full clearing this afternoon but certainly later than Monday afternoon and high temperatures will likely be a couple to a few degrees cooler over the San Joaquin Valley. Over the remainder of the forecast area a warmer day is on tap as ridging rolls in from the west. For the very important Thanksgiving forecast, models continue to trend weaker with the incoming split system. Even the latest model ensemble forecast is backing down on the strength of this feature. At this time forecast chances of precipitation are at the chance level over much of the area with very light precipitation amounts forecast. I wouldn't be too surprised to see this backing off trend continue and I have removed the chances of precipitation on Wednesday night however I have left the chances in on Turkey day. Again at this time any precipitation looks light. By Friday and into the weekend forecast models continue to be in rock solid agreement in building a strong ridge of high pressure over the region and this will set the stage for the first long duration fog and stratus episode over the San Joaquin Valley and lower foothills. Persistant dense fog will likely occur on Saturday and Sunday mornings however by Monday the transition to a low stratus situation is a good bet. In either situation areas outside the San Joaquin Valley will have a mainly clear and certainly dry period from Friday into the middle of next week. In the sjv cool, foggy to cloudy and dreary weather will occur. ================================================================= [end of update] 21-Nov-2011 8:03 AM Snow and Rain for Bass Lake Later This Week Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 243 am PST Monday Nov 21 2011 Synopsis... dry conditions will prevail through the middle of the week with high pressure moving in. There will also be a good possibility of early morning patchy dense fog in the San Joaquin Valley today through Wednesday with ample moisture from the recent rains and the incoming ridging. Another storm system could bring our next chance of precipitation into the central California interior region by Thanksgiving day. Discussion... Last of the precipitation has moved well east of the area this morning as the low eject across southeast California. Over the San Joaquin Valley some patchy fog has formed and this situation will need to be monitored. For the next 3 days the forecast looks dry with low amplitude ridging today and Tuesday giving way to a southwest flow aloft on Tuesday night and Wednesday as the next trough moves towards the West Coast. At this point the forecast becomes rather problematic as the forecast models show a split pattern developing with one branch of the jet moving across the Pacific northwest while the southern stream takes a second area of low pressure down the California coast as it keeps the main energy offshore. Between these two features, a band of light precipitation is projected in the deformation zone stretching between. At this time, this looks to be the most favorable scenario for precipitation in the central California interior and this will occur on Thanksgiving day. For Friday and into the weekend, models then agree on building a large area of high pressure over the region. All areas outside the San Joaquin Valley will see warming and dry weather in this pattern, however the first widespread fog to stratus episode of the season will likely set in just in time for the busy travel weekend. ======================================= [end of update] 20-Nov-2011 9:19 AM Winter Storm Update The second winter storm of the month has arrived over the Bass Lake area, bringing scattered showers, rain/snow mix or snow to higher elevations. We can expect the precipitation to continue for the next few hours, with more later today. Here are the latest Radar and Sat images: Regional NextRad Image State-Wide NextRad Image West Coast IR Satellite Image Full Pacific IR Satellite Image We can expect this current band to pass through the area within the next few hours leaving unstable air behind the front. This may result in continued upslope generated rain and snow showers for our area for the remainder of the day. Current storm total from the station's rain gauge stands at: 0.21 inches Here is the latest regional forecast from the National Weather Service. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 500 am PST sun Nov 20 2011 Synopsis... rain and higher elevation snow are expected today and through this evening as the cold front moves south across the region. Dry conditions will prevail Monday and through the middle of next week due to weak ridging. Another storm system could bring another chance of precipitation Wednesday night and much of Thanksgiving day. Discussion... the band of precipitation associated with an incoming frontal system is currently pushing south through the central California interior. The upper low is sliding southeast just off the California coast and is prognosticated to swing inland across central Southern California today and tonight. The current precipitation band will continue its March through the area this morning then additional showers will develop behind it today in the unstable air as the cold upper low tracks over the region. The best instability will remain along and off the coast but a thunderstorm or two is still not impossible along our west side so the slight chance of thunder remins in the forecast there today. Gusty winds will accompany the passing front today and a Wind Advisory is in effect for the west side of the sjv through noon today. Although there is no strong moisture tap with this system...it will be capable of accumulating a few to several inches of snow over the Sierra above 4000 feet and above 5000 feet in the Kern County mountains. The gusty winds and snow will cause travel impacts in these areas and a winter weather advisories continue through this afternoon/evening. The clouds and precipitation along with cooler incoming air will make for a cool day today with temperatures as much as 10-15 degrees below climatology. Activity will taper off tonight as the system pushes eastward out of the area. Tomorrow will then begin a few days of drier and warming conditions ahead of the next approaching system...though overnight and morning fog will return to the forecast in the sjv. By Wednesday temperatures should return to at or slightly above seasonal averages. Models are pretty similar in dragging the next system through our area Thanksgiving day into Friday...returning cooler temperatures and precipitation chances. High pressure then rebuilds over the area for the en of the week ============================================ [end of update] 20-Nov-2011 12:08 AM Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 957 PM PST Sat Nov 19 2011 Synopsis... another low pressure system will impact the region beginning tonight. Therefore...rain and higher elevation snow are expected later tonight through Sunday evening. Dry conditions will prevail Monday and through the middle of next week due to weak ridging. Another storm system could bring another chance of precipitation by Thanksgiving day. Discussion... after a very nice fall day across the central California interior...we will once again see precipitation moving into the County Warning Area. Regional radar indicates precipitation just moving into Merced County at this time. Models have been advertising the low center to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and remain along the coast. The exact track has been an issue and definitely a forecast problem. Satellite imagery indicates the complex low pressure center is sliding south-southeast along the California CST at this time. Very impressive frontal band with strong vertical ascent in association with an upper jet maximum around 120 kts digging into the backside of the upper trough. The surface low is expected to remain along the coast overnight and then begin to move southeast into Southern California by Thursday afternoon. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts will be limited due to lack of sub tropical connection. However the dynamics with this system will wring out any moisture associated with it and quantitative precipitation forecast amounts will be respectable in favored upslope areas. Low level jet at h850 around 40kts will play a very important role on the winds along the west side of the County Warning Area. Downsloping conditions will bring the stronger winds to the surface Sunday morning as the low center moves by to the west. Tight gradients in the deformation zone along the warm occlusion front will provide strong winds in some of the heavy showers...mainly west of the Interstate 5 corridor. Vertical enhancement of moisture will take place as strong upslope conditions will develop along the Sierra due to the position and track of the system. Enhanced precipitation is expected along the Sierra and associated foothills on Sunday. Precipitation is also expected along the Tehachapi Mountains as the low center passes to the south. We are concerned about the possibility of heavy snow above 6000 feet Thursday afternoon as low level jet will provide plenty of moisture and strong upslope over the Ventura County mountains and dumping snow into frazaier park and Cuddy Valley. Snow levels will flirt with the Grapevine and the Tehachapi Pass and may see some light snow at pass level...but little or no accumulation. Have added thunder along the west side of the sjv for Sunday. Several strikes associated with frontal boundary at this time offshore. Storm Prediction Center mentions the west side of the County Warning Area for possible thunderstorms with the frontal passage and possibly Post frontal in the cold air and steep lapse rates. Some small hail and gusty winds are possible with some of the stronger cells late tonight and into Sunday. Once the low moves out Sunday night...we will see a nice break in the action and a warming trend across the central California interior through Wednesday with mostly clear skies and diurnal valley fog...which may become locally dense at times in the morning hours. However the fog is dependent on how much rain we receive with the system. Upper ridge will warm things back up to near normal and give US mostly clear skies. The forecast models and associated confidence products are indicating that a deep trough of low pressure will move through the region on Thursday and provide plenty of precipitation to the region. The system is currently over the Aleutians and is being fed by a deep subtropical tap in the central Pacific. The associated slug of moisture is expected to move into the region late Wednesday and continue all day on Thursday before quickly moving out on Thursday night. Plenty of cold air and gusty winds behind the front is possible on Friday as unsettled weather is expected. A strong epac ridge is forecast to build in over the area on Saturday with warmer and drier conditions. ========================================= [end of NWS update] 18-Nov-2011 11:11 AM Winter Storm Conditions Likely for the Southern Sierra This Weekend Here is the latest forecast from the NWS Hanford, Ca. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 1057 am PST Friday Nov 18 2011 Synopsis... a trough of low pressure is moving into the region...bringing stronger winds above 8000 feet and increasing chances for light precipitation today in the valley with higher elevation snow. A break in precipitation is forecast for Saturday with another slight chance of precipitation for the area on Sunday. Dry conditions are expected during the early part of next week due to weak ridging. Update... widespread cloud cover across the San Joaquin Valley with strong gusty winds over the high elevations of the Sierra as well as below the mountain passes of Kern County and High Desert. Otherwise dry conditions elsewhere in the district. Higher elevations of the Sierra remains clear and windy. Shower activity remains over north California this morning. Cloud cover starting to move over the north sectors of Yosemite. Expect showers to develop this afternoon as an upper level short wave moves through the area. This system appears moisture starved and the main weather hazard being strong gusty winds. Mainly light amounts of precipitation with an inch or two towards Yosemite resulting in blowing snow in the higher elevations. No updates planned this morning. Discussion... the frontal system dropping into the region is so far producing just some increased cloudiness across the central California interior. This is generally providing a bit higher overnight temperatures and will help to inhibit development of early morning fog in the San Joaquin Valley this morning. The NAM and GFS generally break up the precipitation area as it moves into our district today while the European model (ecmwf) is a bit more generous with the quantitative precipitation forecast...though still showing generally light amounts. The timing of any precipitation that does occur looks to be mainly later this afternoon and this evening as the system slides south over the region. Gusty winds are expected to accompany the passing trough and although just a few inches of snow accumulations are expected at the higher elevations...blowing snow could create some hazardous conditions and a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect over the Sierra north of Kings Canyon above 8000 feet today and tonight. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler today than yesterday. Slight ridging ahead of the next approaching low pressure system will provide dry conditions Saturday but temperatures will remain cool...topping out around 10 degrees below climatology. The next developing low dropping south from Alaska is still prognosticated by the GFS to slide along the California coast Sunday...keeping precipitation chances mainly west of US. The latest European model (ecmwf) however now swings it inland across northern/central California producing a wetter forecast for our area Sunday. The forecast is a compromise...keeping main precipitation chances along the west side of our area. A building ridge ahead of yet another approaching system will then provide dry and warming conditions for early next week with temperatures trending back to seasonal averages. The European model (ecmwf) splits the incoming midweek system...while the GFS slides a more consolidated trough and associated precipitation across our area Thanksgiving day. Our forecast continues to be closer to the GFS...with a cooler and wetter Thanksgiving Holiday. ===================================== We will update our local Bass Lake forecast as conditions warrant. [end of update] 15-Nov-2011 9:27 AM Late Week Storm Intensity Now Uncertain Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 854 am PST Tuesday Nov 15 2011 Synopsis... upper level ridging is moving into the region which may bring areas of patchy dense fog during the late night and early morning hours through Thursday. This same ridging will also bring fair skies and seasonal temperatures to the area as a dry northwest flow aloft prevails over the area. Thursday evening a trough will begin to spread south over the region...bringing another threat for rain and higher elevation snow at times during Friday and into the weekend. Discussion... Fog and stratus clouds continue over the southern San Joaquin Valley and sjv facing slopes of the Kern County mountains in a very typical northwest flow. Expect much of this to dissipate this afternoon however with hours of sunlight and sun angle reduced some may linger through the day. Over the eastern Pacific the ridge remains in place along 140w however lots of moisture continues to spread over the top of the ridge into the Pacific northwest and northern California. For the next 3 days, the ridge will remain in control however by Friday a trough is prognosticated by GFS and NAM models to move quickly across the Pacific northwest and into northern California. For the central California interior the big question is how far south the precipitation threat will extend with the Friday system. Latest GFS and NAM continue to confine the majority of the rain and snow to the far north of the forecast area and the general grid trend looks okay, however probability of precipitation for Friday may need some trimming back. Saturday continues to look dry before the second seemingly more robust low pressure system heads down the West Coast. This is another of those tricky "coastal hugger" type of lows and the big variables include any tropical moisture entrainment (as with last week's system) and track of the low center in relation to the coast. Will again take a close look at all model data and see if probability of precipitation for Sunday need refinement. Stay tuned for more this afternoon. [end of update] 14-Nov-2011 8:32 AM New COLD Storm System Forecast for Friday through Sunday Not much detail available at this early point, but it is looking likely that a cold front and associated storm system moving down from the Gulf of Alaska will effect the area beginning on Friday. More details as they become available. Fair weather and near normal seasonal temperatures are predicted for the remainder of this week leading up to this next weather event. [end of update] 13-Nov-2011 6:59 AM Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 240 am PST sun Nov 13 2011 Synopsis... dry conditions...along with fair skies and seasonal temperatures are expected for the next few days as weak ridging sets up over the area. ------------------------------------- Discussion... satellite loops show that the upper-level low currently is west of Baja California California. This has allowed the east-Pacific upper-level ridge to build onto the coast...setting up a dry northwest flow aloft over the Hanford warning/forecast area. This flow will continue through midweek with dry weather and near seasonal temperatures. The main forecast concern is the extended forecast. Both the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS forecast another storm to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and move into California by the weekend. Although both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) predict this to be a very cold system...there are considerable differences in timing and the strength of the trough. Further...the models initially overforecast the strength of the last storm...and subsequent model runs also could back off on the strength of the coming storm. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) do bring the trough into the Pacific northwest by 00z Saturday /1600 PST Friday/...but then the GFS brings the storm through California Friday night . A series of short-waves dive down the back side of the trough..keeping it over California through Saturday night. The GFS then moves the trough into the Great Basin as the east Pacific Ridge begins to build back onshore. The European model (ecmwf) drops the low embedded in the trough south along the coast Friday and Friday night to off the northern California coast. The European model (ecmwf) then swings the trough inland over the state Saturday night... then a short-wave drops into the trough to keep the trough axis over central California Sunday. The trough moves into the Great Basin Sunday night as the ridge rebuilds over the east Pacific. The 00z GFS is 245 hours faster with the trough than the 00z European model (ecmwf). The GFS brings precipitation to the southern Sierra Nevada Friday... then rain moves into the central San Joaquin Valley Friday evening before spreading south to the Tehachapi Mountains by 12z /0400 PST/ Saturday. The GFS ends precipitation Saturday evening with a dry Sunday. The 00z European model (ecmwf)...despite the slower movement of the trough...brings precipitation to the northern part of the Hanford warning/forecast area by 12z /0400 PST/ Friday morning...18 hours faster than the GFS. The heaviest precipitation arrives during the day Saturday...with up to 1.34 inch liquid in 12 hours over Kings Canyon. The European model (ecmwf) tapers off precipitation from the north Sunday night. Both models forecast sharp cooling at 850 mb for next weekend. The GFS drops 850-mb temperatures over Fresno down to -4.5 c by 18z /1000 PST/ Saturday...and again by 12z /0400 PST/ Sunday. With its slower trough...the European model (ecmwf) does not bring the cold airmass into the San Joaquin Valley until Saturday night...when 850-mb temperatures over Fresno fall to -2.5 c by 12z Sunday. Both models forecast the snow level to fall to around 2500 feet Saturday...with the GFS plunging snow levels below 1000 feet Saturday night...while the European model (ecmwf) places the snow level around 2100 feet. Have favored the European model (ecmwf) for the snow level...as this model did better than the GFS with the November 10th storm. Otherwise...the forecast is a compromise between the two models. Even with the current forecast of low snow levels...do not expect any snow on the San Joaquin Valley floor. However...valley snow in November is possible...albeit rare. The earliest snow at Fresno was on November 21st 1931...when a trace of snow fell. For Bakersfield...the earliest snow was on November 25th 2003...also with a trace. =========================================== [end of update] 12-Nov-2011 11:24 AM Upslope Showers Still Possible Today We picked up 0.42 inches of rain from this latest system, with the last two 100ths added to that total earlier this morning. The air is still unstable over the Sierra range, so upslope generated clouds and precipitation is very possible today throughout the entire Bass Lake area. Spotty showers with measurable precipitation would not be unusual on a day like today. Here is the latest NWS forecast: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 941 am PST Sat Nov 12 2011 Synopsis... widely scattered showers and higher elevation snow will continue over the area this morning...mainly in Tulare and Kern counties. Some clearing is expected this afternoon as the front moves out of the area. Dry conditions will then prevail Sunday and much of next week. Discussion... Satellite water vapor imagery shows the upper low centered near 30n/121w this morning as it continues to slide southeast. Mostly cloudy skies prevail over the central California interior with just a few very light showers detected by radar. Will hang on to the slight to low chance probability of precipitation for this afternoon but additional rainfall amounts will be light. A precipitation summary /sfopnshnx/ from yesterday through this morning will be issued next hour after the 18z data comes in. Dry conditions are expected by this evening but patchy fog is likely to develop across portions of the San Joaquin Valley overnight. Winds over the Grapevine have diminished significantly the last couple of hours and have allowed the advisory to expire. ============================================= [end of update] 11-Nov-2011 8:22 AM Rain and Strong Winds Possible Today The low pressure system that was supposed to have remained off the coast and moving south has somewhat altered its course and is now tracking east by south east. Latest IR Sat Image While the bulk of the circulation remains off the coast, there is now enough eastward movement to bring more of the unstable air over the Sierra which may fuel some upslope precipitation and possibly some isolated Thunderstorms. UPDATE for Latest NWS Forecast Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 944 am PST Friday Nov 11 2011 Synopsis... an area of low pressure located off the coast of northern California is expected to continue moving south along the coast through Saturday. Therefore...mostly cloudy skies with isolated rain showers and higher elevation snow are anticipated over central California. Dry conditions will then prevail during Sunday and much of next week. Discussion... ominous skies over much of the central California interior this morning but the bark is worse than the bite. Some light showers have developed but rainfall amounts are very light with mainly a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. Even the Kern County desert has seen a little rain this morning. The upper low off the central California coast is beginning to slide southeast with a frontal band of precipitation extending from the sf Bay area southward offshore of Point Conception. While it is nudging eastward...it's unlikely to push very far inland as the low parallels the coast. However...given a healthy southwesterly flow with a subtropical moisture feed and good upper diffluence...have updated forecast to bump up probability of precipitation a little for today and tonight. Also...strong low level southerly flow ahead of the front is resulting in some increased gusty winds over the west central San Joaquin Valley. A Wind Advisory is being issued for this area from 10 am - 7 PM and the ongoing Wind Advisory for the Kern County mountains and extreme south end of the San Joaquin Valley will be extended through 7 PM as well. [end of update] 10-Nov-2011 10:45 AM Approaching Storm System May Become a Non-Event for Central Cal/Sierra Nevada Current Sat Images of Systems in Pacific The latest forecast discussion from the NWS: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 930 am PST Thursday Nov 10 2011 Synopsis... an area of low pressure is located off the northern coast of California and is expected to transit south along the coast. Mostly cloudy skies with isolated rain showers and higher elevation snow is expected Friday night through Saturday over central California. Discussion... southerly winds have been howling at the base of the Grapevine during the past 24 hours and over exposed summits of Kern County. Peak gusts of 69 miles per hour were observed at the Grapevine chp station around 6 am this morning and have frequently gusted between 45 miles per hour and 55 miles per hour at Grapevine Peak. Although wind speeds have ebbed a bit since then...they will likely intensify later today and persist through at least midday Friday in these areas. Additionally... downslope winds have produced significant warming and drying at the south end of the sj valley where 24-hour temperature trends are +20 degrees and humidities are currently around 15 percent. As a result... temperatures this afternoon have the potential to warm into the lower 80s in the Kern County portion of the valley. The weather is considerably more tranquil elsewhere across the County Warning Area this morning with mostly clear skies where temperatures are generally trending slightly higher than 24 hours ago. In the broader picture...a storm system continues to spin over the eastern Pacific and has moved very little since this time yesterday. A broad southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this system is transporting high cloudiness into central and Southern California and will continue to do so through Friday morning while the eastern Pacific storm remains nearly stationary. While the storm is prognosticated to drift slowly eastward Friday afternoon and night...all of the models keep this system well offshore the California coast through Saturday where the deepest moisture and dynamics will be. Nonetheless...clouds will probably lower and thicken across much of the central California interior Friday afternoon. While the offshore low tracks well to our south and west Friday night another storm system in the northern branch of the jet stream will track across the Pacific northwest and leave central California split in the middle. Normally when this happens...the central California interior gets robbed of precipitation. At any rate...the best chance of wet weather in the County Warning Area appears as though it will be from Friday evening into Saturday. Even then...quantitative precipitation forecast will be nominal at best. This is reflected well in the latest models and the forecasts from HPC and the cnrfc. It would not be a surprise if the sj valley got nothing more than sprinkles out of this system. By Sunday a dry northwesterly flow regime will become established across California and likely continue through the middle of next week. Temperatures during this period will average pretty close to normal but there may be some residual low clouds through Monday along the west slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. ================================================ If conditions change and it looks like the station will encounter a significant rain event, we will post an update accordingly at that time. Stay tuned to our station web site for the latest weather conditions, radar returns and precipitation events! [end of update] 09-Nov-2011 8:48 AM Here is the latest from the NWS in Hanford Ca. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 422 am PST Wednesday Nov 9 2011 Synopsis... high pressure will dominate the central California region into Thursday. Today and Thursday early morning patchy dense fog can be expected. A storm system will begin to move into the area by Thursday night and last through the weekend. Discussion... shortwave ridging is pushing in over California this morning. Temperatures today will warm several degrees more over yesterday with sunny skies. An increasing southerly flow at the surface and aloft will help push temperatures to slightly above normal Thursday. Weak downslope warming could push temperatures to near 80 in the south end of the valley. Locally gusty southeast-S winds may develop over the Kern County mountains Thursday afternoon...and may require an advisory. However models are trending farther west and south with this system than previous model runs. Confidence at this time is not high enough to issue an advisory. A deep longwave trough in the east Pacific along 140w is beginning to close off/cutoff as it tracks slowly east. Models bring the cutoff low toward the central California coast Friday. There is still considerable difference between the European model (ecmwf) and GFS with regard to precipitation over the central California interior. Experience has shown many times that coastal huggers dont...as a rule...yield much in the way of precipitation east of the Coast Ranges. However the system does have a narrow band of subtrop moisture still feeding into the cold front...and I see no reason this will be shut off. Best chance of precipitation will be along and ahead of the trough axis later Friday into Friday night. Raised probability of precipitation most areas for Friday and Friday night as the deformation moves through. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts with this system will be highest near the western foothills of the valley Friday spreading into the Tehachapi Mountains Friday night. Snow levels with this system will remain relatively high for this time of year...as coldest air remains well offshore. Dont expect much if any accumulating snow below about 7000 feet. And with very low quantitative precipitation forecast amounts in the southern Sierra...no winter headlines are anticipated. Some moderate to briefly heavy rainfall could occur in the tehachapis Friday night...otherwise only light amounts of precipitation are expected. The upper low will begin to open up as it progresses east Sat...with the main upper low and trough axis crossing over Baja California into Arizona by Sunday morning. Precipitation will diminish from north to south Sat and be mostly ended late Sat night. A few lingering showers may persist over the mountains sun...otherwise dry. Models show a persistent northwest flow aloft across California well into next week. Overall models indicate at dry forecast with only minor day to day fluctuations in temperatures. Embedded shortwave troughs in the flow will bring some clouds from time to time for a partly cloudy forecast. ======================================== We will be posting our own storm reports this weekend as conditions warrant. In the meantime, we will continue to re-publish these local NWS forecast discussions from Hanford Ca. as the latest reports become available [end of update] 08-Nov-2011 10:09 AM Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 850 am PST Tuesday Nov 8 2011 Synopsis... high pressure will dominate the central California region for the the remainder of the week. Late night and early morning patchy dense fog can be expected in the San Joaquin Valley. A storm system by the weekend is expected to increase sky cover and chances for precipitation. Discussion... by 16z /0800 PST/...temperatures in the Kern County deserts had risen above 28 degrees...so have allowed the freeze warning for the deserts to expire. A cold...dry Canadian airmass moved into California Monday night... allowing temperatures across the central and southern San Joaquin Valley to mostly fall into the lower to middle 30s this morning. As a result...there was less fog than Monday morning but there was some patchy valley frost. Lows Wednesday morning are expected to be a few degrees warmer than this morning...so there likely will be more fog and less frost. The new 12z GFS has restored the trough for Saturday night/Sunday that had been missing from the last few runs. This only increases the uncertainty for the weekend forecast. No changes to the forecast planned at this time. ------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion... /issued 349 am PST Tuesday Nov 8 2011/ transitory shortwave ridge will push in over California during the next 24-36 hours. This will bring a warming trend to central California...with 850mb temperatures rising some 10 degrees/c by Thursday. In addition...a weak offshore flow at the surface is forecast by Wednesday afternoon. This will assist the warmup in the South Valley as some downslope breezes develop across the Tehachapi Mountains /as a side note...these breezes will not be nearly as strong as the event of last week however/. Most areas by Thursday will be slightly above normal...the exception being the high deserts where the surface high across the Great Basin is relatively cool. Advertised changes for Thursday night into Friday are still on track. However...there remains quite a bit of uncertainty on whether there will be much rain east of the Coast Ranges. The closed upper low stays off the coast before opening up and turning inland late Sat. For certain...the bulk of rain will be over the coast. But how far inland it gets is the forecast problem. Coastal huggers are typically not very wet...if any at all for the interior. However models have a weak subtropical tap of moisture as the low tracks toward the central coast...especially the Euro. For now have hedged the forecast more toward climatology and the GFS. The exception being the southern zones south of Fresno County where the best chance of precipitation will be Friday night as the low begins to move inland across socal. Should be some pretty good rains in the tehachapis and maybe the extreme southern tip of the Sierra. Maybe even the high deserts could see some locally MDT amounts as well. Because of the offshore track of the upper low...snow levels will not be particularly low...generally at or above 5500-6000 feet. No winter weather products are expected at this time. Precipitation will begin to diminish from north to south Sat...with some lingering showers Sat night. A rather significant change in the computer models has occurred for Sunday however. Runs from the past couple of days had indicated another stronger and colder system digging southeast into the Great Basin sun...with a good shot of precipitation across central California. Latest GFS and European model (ecmwf) runs however have completely lost this system...instead shifting to a fairly dry northwest flow aloft. A couple of weak embedded shortwaves produce some light shower activity...mainly over the mountains sun through Tuesday of next week. The consensus with surrounding forecast offices was not to completely strip out probability of precipitation from sun Onward based solely on one model cycle. However did trim probability of precipitation back from previous forecasts. Will have to play this one on a day to day basis for now. ====================================================================== [end of update] 06-Nov-2011 8:34 AM Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 956 am PST sun Nov 6 2011 Synopsis... frontal system transiting through central California is producing a few rain showers in the San Joaquin Valley and foothills along with snow in the Sierra Nevada. Precipitation will taper off later in the day and partly cloudy skies will be the norm until mid-week. Discussion... National Weather Service Doppler weather radar indicated that snow showers had diminished over the southern Sierra Nevada...so have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory. Only a few residual upslope showers are expected this afternoon with light accumulations. On the San Joaquin Valley floor...overnight rainfall totals generally were between two-tenths and a third of an inch. Snow levels in the Kern County mountains were lower than expected...with snow falling as low as around 2700 feet...and 1-2 inch accumulations near the 4000 foot level. Satellite loops show the cold front has moved south of Kern County. There are numerous cold cumulus behind the front...so a few light instability showers cannot be ruled out over the San Joaquin Valley floor and the foothills this afternoon. Have updated the forecast to drop the Winter Weather Advisory and to adjust snow levels a bit for today. Previous discussion... /issued 248 am PST sun Nov 6 2011/ Synopsis... frontal system transiting through central California is producing rain showers to the southern San Joaquin Valley and foothills as well as several inches of new snow to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Precipitation will taper off later in the day and partly cloudy skies will be the norm for the next few days. Discussion... light to moderate rain over the sjv at this time with snow falling above 5000 feet in the Sierra. Back edge of the precipitation is now moving into the extreme northwest corner of the County Warning Area near Los Banos. However showers continue well off the north. The system will weaken over the next few hours and move east. Upper low will move to the east of the area and dig south into northern Arizona by late tonight. Breezy northwest flow will be over the region early Monday and winds will quickly die off as an epac upper ridge builds in over the central California interior Tuesday and continue over the area through Thursday with near normal temperatures and mostly clear skies. Late night and early morning fog will develop in the usual fog prone areas in the sjv. The fog should burn off by middle morning each day through Thursday. It will be a very nice week weather wise through Thursday. The next weather maker will approach the region as a rapidly intensifying closed low developing over the epac on Wednesday and will drift southeast on Thursday. The forecast problem arises with the exact track of the upper low. The 00z GFS and 00z European model (ecmwf) are much more in line than what we have been seeing in previous runs. The track is trending south of the County Warning Area and only brushing the County Warning Area. Previous runs were bringing the low right across the County Warning Area with copious amounts of liquid precipitation across the region. Based on the new track...we would see a considerably smaller amount of precipitation across the area. Have increased probability of precipitation over the area for Friday and Saturday based on the models being more in line with each other. The UK and dgex are very similar to the European model (ecmwf) and not as aggressive with meridional phasing of the northern stream with the cutoff. The GFS is dumping a tremendous amount of modified polar air into the backside of the system as it kicks east on Sunday. The other models are not advertising that solution. Will hold off on significantly colder air for now for Sunday...but will monitor. Will issue a heads up Special Weather Statement for upcoming system late in the week. ====================================================================== [end of update] 05-Nov-2011 9:02 PM SPECIAL LOCAL WEATHER UPDATE A large and rather moisture laden band of precipitation is currently heading for the Bass Lake area from the west northwest at about 35 mph. Based on current estimates it will impact the Sierra range in the next 2-3 hours, possibly sooner. With current temperatures in the high 30s, the threat of moderate to heavy snowfall is possible within the next 8-12 hours. Residents of the Bass Lake area should be prepared for winter like driving conditions including black ice and snow covered side roads through the late evening through Sunday morning. We will update this journal as the precipitation gets closer to our area. With current atmospheric conditions associated with this approaching system, the collision with the Sierra range could either result in significant upslope amplification of the precipitation on south/west facing slopes, or tear the cell apart. We will know which way this goes over the next few hours. Stay tuned to our home page for LIVE NextRad radar returns as well as current weather conditions at the station location. [end of special update] 05-Nov-2011 6:21 PM Snow Flurries Possible Tonight by Midnight - Rain/Snow Sunday Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 403 PM PDT Sat Nov 5 2011 Synopsis... rain showers and mountain snow are expected tonight and Sunday as the next low pressure trough moves over interior central California. Dry conditions are in store Monday through at least the middle of next week after the trough moves east of the area. Discussion... precipitation associated with the next approaching storm system is currently pushing through the Bay area while middle and high clouds have overspread the central California interior. Highs this afternoon are on track to top out around 10-15 degrees above climatology. Models continue to show the precipitation pushing into the northern portions of our area this evening and spreading southward over the district overnight. Snow levels will drop to around 4000 feet over the Sierra north of Kings Canyon...with several inches of snow accumulating at the higher elevations. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect there from this evening through tomorrow morning. Tonight will be cool again but overnight lows will not be as chilly as last night with the clouds and precipitation in place. Expect lingering showers Sunday on the backside of the frontal system...especially over the higher terrain where precipitation chances will linger into Sunday night. Dry and warming conditions will then be in store for our area into the end of the week as high pressure builds overhead in advance of another storm system dropping south from the Gulf of Alaska. By midweek high temperatures will be back to around seasonal averages. Models have some differences in handling the weekend system...the GFS splits it and drags a low across Southern California/northern Baja California while the European model (ecmwf) swings a trough inland farther north...across our area. Our forecast for the weekend will lower temperatures back to a few degrees below normal with at least a slight chance for precipitation across the area. ================================================= [end of update] 04-Nov-2011 11:45 AM Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 945 am PDT Friday Nov 4 2011 Synopsis... partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated rain showers and light mountain snow showers remain over the region through this afternoon...mainly over Kern County...as a frontal system exits east over the Sierra Nevada. Much cooler temperatures are expected through early next week over all of central California. Another round of rain showers and mountain snow is possible in the area late Saturday night and Sunday. Discussion... upper low which dropped down the California coast overnight and spread precipitation across our area...is currently situated west of Santa Maria near 34n/123w. This feature is prognosticated to cross socal this afternoon and evening. In the meantime...a vorticity maximum associated with this system is pushing inland across socal and is spreading some showers across the western portion of Kern County. Expect the shower activity to continue today as the WRF and GFS are indicating the favored lfq of a 130 knots 250 mb jet maximum moving across socal today. Mesowest observations and spotter reports are indicating the snow level is currently running around 4800 feet and above the Tejon and Tehachapi passes. However...as the band of precipitation moves through Kern County the snow level may lower to near pass level. Have been covering this with a significant weather advisory because of the showery nature of the jet enhanced precipitation and variation with snow levels as the heavier showers could briefly lower the snow levels to pass level today. Meanwhile...the precipitation has tapered off over the southern Sierra Nevada so have allowed the Winter Weather Advisory for the affected area to expire in a morning update. Colder air associated with this system has already pushed into our area and as a result...temperatures will be well below seasonal normals today. As the trough axis swings east of our area tonight a slow clearing and drying trend is expected on Saturday. 12z WRF is indicating the next trough dropping into California on Saturday night and Sunday bringing another round of rain and mountain snow to our area. At this time snow levels are prognosticated to run around 4500 feet over the southern Sierra Nevada and around 5000 feet in the Kern County mountains during the bulk of this evening which would suggest that the major passes in Kern County will receive mainly rain. Dynamics do not appear to be as strong with this system as with the current one although relative humidity forecasts are showing a lot of deep moisture with it. The medium, range models have converged on the idea of an upper ridge building over California on Monday which will bring a warming trend and drying conditions to our area for 3 or 4 days before a potentially strong storm moves through central California over the Veterans Day weekend. ==================================================================== [end of update] 03-Nov-2011 2:15 PM Rain Bucket Swap Completed With our first "winter"storm fast approaching, we thought it was time to install our heater equipped rain gauge collector bucket. This allows us to continue to track rainfall data even when the precipitation is falling in the form of snow or hail. The heater keeps the collector cone section a toasty 75 degrees even when the outside air temp is close to ZERO! Our weather station software determines what form of precipitation is being measured and selects the appropriate alert banners on our home page. The bucket heater was tested after installation and everything checked out perfectly! We are now ready for whatever Mother Nature decides to throw at us! :o) It should be noted that this is the latest winter season bucket swap we have performed so far, with October 25th being the most common winter swap day of the year. Weather News - The Latest from the NWS: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 907 am PDT Thursday Nov 3 2011 Synopsis... an approaching frontal system will move through the area later in the day increasing clouds and the chance of rain showers to the valley and mountain snow showers through Friday. Another round of showers is possible in the area late Saturday and into Sunday. Much cooler than average temperatures are expected Friday through early next week. Discussion... a pleasant day is in store for the central California interior but it will probably be our last really nice day for quite some time. The well advertised change to colder and unsettled weather looks on track as a storm that originated in the Gulf of Alaska heads in our direction. The cold front trailing from this system looks rather moisture starved on the latest satellite imagery. However...as it approaches from the northwest...it will bring an increase in high clouds to the County Warning Area today along with a strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Winds along the Sierra crest could gust to 75 miles per hour this afternoon into this evening. The day could end with a few sprinkles or a light shower in Merced County and Mariposa County. Otherwise...it looks as though dry weather will prevail today for those with any outdoor plans. The cold front is slated to move southward across the County Warning Area tonight with some showers. The models bring the upper level trough inland over California Friday. Underneath the cold pool aloft...instability showers will frequent the higher elevations and become more isolated in the sj valley. As the upper level trough exits into the Great Basin Friday evening...any residual showers will be confined to the mountains. However...low clouds will bank up along the east side and south end of the sj valley and the adjacent foothills through at least Saturday morning. Short wave ridging aloft will bring US a break from wet weather Saturday. Another upper level trough will bring a renewed chance of showers to much of the County Warning Area Saturday night into Sunday with a continuation of much cooler than normal temperatures. Dry weather and a modest warming trend is slated for early next week as an upper level ridge builds over California. Beyond Tuesday...there is a big question mark as to whether our pattern remains dry or wet weather returns. The ecm maintains an upper level ridge over California in the 5 to 7 day period while the GFS brings another deep upper level trough into the central California interior Wednesday into next Thursday. We are currently leaning toward the more reliable ecm but it will be interesting to see what the 12z runs bring. [end of update] 02-Nov-2011 8:14 PM Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 258 PM PDT Wednesday Nov 2 2011 Synopsis... high pressure will keep skies mostly clear today with mild temperatures. A frontal system will move through the area Thursday bringing an increase in cloudiness and a chance of rain showers to the valley and mountain snow showers through Friday. Another round of showers is possible in the area late Saturday. Discussion... strong surface high pressure in the Great Basin continues to bring an offshore flow across the region. The strongest winds have been out of the southeast across Kern County ..especially through the Tehachapi area and along I-5 through the Grapevine as well as into the southern end of the San Joaquin Valley including Bakersfield...Arvin...and Lamont. This has created areas of blowing dust and an advisory continues in effect. The offshore flow has also brought drier air into the region with humidities dropping into the single digits across many areas of the mountains of southern Tulare and Kern counties. The very low humidity along with the gusty winds prompted a red flag warning for those areas which remains in effect until 11 PM. Expect the winds to diminish late this afternoon as the offshore pressure gradient begins to decrease. However it will take a little longer for the humidities to increase. A change in the weather is expected to begin Thursday as a storm system approaches the region. There is a slight chance of precipitation reaching the northern end of the County warning forecast area late Thursday afternoon...but the majority of the precipitation will occur Thursday night into Friday morning with shower activity continuing through Friday afternoon. This system will bring much colder air into the region Thursday night and Friday...with 850-mb temperatures over Fresno falling to near 0 c by 12z Friday. The snow levels Thursday afternoon will be around 8000 feet...but will lower through the night and be down to 3500-4500 feet by early Friday as the colder air arrives, temperatures will drop nearly 20 degrees from Thursday to Friday. The trough will begin to move east of the region Friday afternoon... but upslope showers may linger over the southern Sierra Nevada into at least Friday evening. There will be a break in the precipitation Saturday...but then the next trough reaches California Saturday night for another round of rain and mountain snow. The models had been forecasting yet another trough to reach California next Tuesday...but have now slowed it down and instead leave a ridge of high pressure over the region through Tuesday. The European model (ecmwf) holds the ridge in place for Wednesday as well...keeping a closed low farther off shore than the GFS. The GFS weakens the ridge Wednesday and allows a closed low to drop south along the California coast. This scenario would bring precipitation along the coast...but likely not much inland. But confidence in the forecast beyond Monday is low. ================================= [end of update] 01-Nov-2011 9:55 AM Rain Likely Beginning Thursday A series of storms is forecast to begin moving through our area on Thursday and continuing through the weekend. The amount of new data coming in on this storm series is large enough to warrant publishing the entire full detailed forecast report from the NWS in Hanford as follows... Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 215 am PDT Tuesday Nov 1 2011 Synopsis... the first in a series of storm systems is expected to arrive today with not much to it except some increased cloudiness and cooling. The second and third systems arriving later in the week are expected to be stronger with the addition of higher elevation snow and valley rain. Discussion... ..wet and unseasonably cold weather expected Thursday afternoon through next weekend... The first in a series of upper-level troughs is dropping into the Great Basin this morning...heralding a change in the weather to unseasonably cool and wet conditions later this week. Ahead of this trough...temperatures Monday continued above normal. Highs in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley ranged from 78 /at Delano...Kettleman City...Los Banos and the Madera Municipal Airport/ to 84 degrees /at Coalinga and Wasco/. The latter two cities also were the warm spots in the Hanford warning/forecast area. This first trough will cool temperatures back toward seasonal values and will bring breezy to locally gusty conditions to the Kern County mountains and deserts and to the west side of the San Joaquin Valley. As the trough continues to drop into the Great Basin...a cold airmass will move south through eastern California and into the Kern County deserts Wednesday...cooling temperatures into the middle 60s to lower 70s. As the trough moves east of the region...the flow will turn briefly offshore. This could warm temperatures in the south end of the San Joaquin Valley several degrees above normal...with Wednesday/S high at Bakersfield in the upper 70s. The second...and much stronger...trough will approach the British Columbia coast Wednesday...then dig south through the Pacific northwest into California Thursday. This trough will bring sharp cooling to the region Thursday night and Friday...with 850-mb temperatures over Fresno falling 10-12 c in less than 24 hours. Although the 00z European model (ecmwf) is not as cold as the GFS...both models forecast 850-mb temperatures over Fresno to fall below 0 c by 12z /0500 PDT/ Friday. This would drop the snow level to around 4000-4500 feet near Kings Canyon National Park...and even lower at Yosemite National Park. Precipitation will move into the northern part of the Hanford warning/forecast area Thursday afternoon...spreading south down to the Tehachapi Mountains Thursday night and over most of the central California interior Friday morning. The 00z GFS quantitative precipitation forecast at Yosemite from this system is 0.45 inch...with 0.20 inch at Fresno and 0.04 inch at Bakersfield. It must be noted that these values are preliminary,,,and the Pacific satellite mosaic shows an upper-level low northwest of Hawaii that is beginning to feed moisture into the trough. The trough will begin to move east of the region Friday afternoon... but upslope showers may linger over the southern Sierra Nevada into at least Friday evening. There will be a break in the precipitation Saturday...but then the next trough reaches California Saturday night for another round of rain and mountain snow. The 00z European model (ecmwf) is slightly more progressive with this trough than the GFS...or even the 12z European model (ecmwf) run. To allow for these differences... have kept a slight chance of residual showers over the southern Sierra Nevada as far south as Sequoia National Park. The models have been forecasting a fourth trough to reach California next Tuesday. The latest GFS run continues to forecast a significant trough...but the 00z European model (ecmwf) weakens it considerably. Have gone with some showers over the southern Sierra Nevada with this system...but confidence is lessened with the latest European model (ecmwf) run. ====================================================== We will be closely monitoring the situation and will be providing live storm updates as they happen once the first system arrives. Looks like we are going to be seeing some pretty intense weather later this week so please make preparations accordingly! [end of update] 31-Oct-2011 2:20 PM Possible Rain Arriving Late This Week! Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 222 PM PDT Monday Oct 31 2011 Synopsis... a series of low pressure systems will be trailing into the region through this week. The second and third systems are expected to be stronger than the first. The first weak system will arrive Tuesday with the second to arrive by Thursday and a third by the end of the week. With the second and third systems...higher elevation snow and valley rain can be expected. Discussion. ..high pressure aloft is weakening over central California as a shortwave trough over the Pacific northwest begins to sharply dig toward the Great Basin. This upper trough will move through the region rather quickly during the day Tuesday. It will not have any precipitation with it...but will bring cooler temperatures. It will be breezy at times behind the dry cold front...but winds will diminish Tuesday evening as an offshore flow develops. In this fast moving pattern...a shortwave ridge will traverse the region Wednesday with mainly clear skies and light winds. Temperatures will be very close to seasonal norms. Another fast moving system will dig south along the West Coast Thursday. This system...currently nearing the western glfak...has a weak tropical connection at this time. This connection will be lost by the time it reaches the West Coast. However there will be ample moisture already available...and this system will bring a good chance of rain and mountain snow to much of the region. Amounts however will generally be light due to the fast movement. Snow levels could fall to 3500-4500 feet with the cold air Friday...but much of the precipitation will be over. At this time do not anticipate any winter weather products for the mountains Thursday night or Friday. Another weak transitory shortwave ridge will follow Friday night and Sat...before yet another inside slider brings a re-enforcing shot of cool air and a chance of light precipitation Sunday. All in all...a changeable and at times unsettled pattern is in store through day 7...with the best chances of precipitation Thursday night and again Sunday. ===================================== Station operator's comments on the extended forecast... The models are still all over the place with this setup of systems. With so many variables it is nearly impossible to call this early, so suffice it to say that things are a changing, and Fall is most definitely about to arrive! [end of update] P.S. HAPPY HALLOWEEN! 20-Oct-2011 8:40 AM Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 217 am PDT Thursday Oct 20 2011 Synopsis... dry conditions with near normal temperatures through Friday then a slight warming trend is expected over the weekend. Discussion... after a cool down on Wednesday due to a marine intrusion, temperatures today will show just a little warming over Merced County with other areas having little change. Water vapor imagery shows another short wave trough now crossing 130w as it heads for the Pacific northwest. Forecast models bring this relatively weak feature across northern California tonight and then build in a large high pressure system over California for the weekend. The short wave passage tonight will likely push a little marine air through Pacheco Pass however the cooling will not be significant. Under the high, temperatures will warm to above normals this weekend with sunny skies and light winds for the entire area. The high is prognosticated by all models to shift east on Monday as another Pacific disturbance pushes across the Pacific northwest. This trough should be strong enough to produce an increase in winds and bring both synoptic and marine cooling to the forecast area Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday the GFS and European model (ecmwf) models both bring another ridge of high pressure to the west, however the European model (ecmwf) is much more amplified with the pattern and projects a northerly flow into central California while the GFS has a weaker high pressure system with just a light northwest flow aloft. In either case it will remain dry. ====================================================================== [end of update] 19-Oct-2011 10:07 AM Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 933 am PDT Wednesday Oct 19 2011 Synopsis... a dry cold front will cool temperatures to near normal today through Friday then slight warming over the weekend. Discussion... a trough of low pressure is moving across northern California this morning. This has deepened the marine layer to near 3000 feet at Fort Ord and the marine air is spilling into the San Joaquin Valley this morning. The combination of cooling from the trough and the marine air will bring temperatures back down to near normal across the central California interior. Expect little change from the near normal conditions for the next few days as the additional weak shortwaves move across the Pacific northwest...then warming a tad over the weekend as the ridge rebuilds overhead. Another passing low pressure trough will drop temperatures back to a bit below seasonal averages during the first part of next week...although models have some differences with the timing and strength of the system. Conditions continue to look dry throughout the period and no precipitation is in the forecast. ================================================== [end of update] 18-Oct-2011 9:06 AM Extended Period of Fair Weather For Bass Lake Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 850 am PDT Tuesday Oct 18 2011 Synopsis... high pressure in place will keep temperatures well above normal on today. A dry cold front will bring cooler than normal temperatures Wednesday followed by gradual warming to near seasonal temperatures along with dry conditions into the weekend. Discussion... satellite loops show the upper-level ridge over California this morning. Monday/S highs across the central and southern San Joaquin Valley were in the 80s...and at 14z /0700 PDT/ this morning...the 24-hour trend was mostly within a couple of degrees of persistence. Satellite loops show the upper-level low near 35n/133w...with the upper-level trough along 150w. The models continue to forecast the low to lift northeast today and open into a short-wave along the leading edge of the trough. The southerly flow ahead of the short- wave may bring a couple degrees of warming to the central California interior...with highs today near to slightly above Monday/S readings. Little change in short-term model timing...with the short-wave on track to move into northern/central California by 12z /0500 PDT/ Wednesday. The short-wave axis will be east of the Hanford warning/ forecast area by 18z /1100 PDT/ Wednesday...but before the short-wave departs the area it will bring a strong push of cooler air as well as deepen the marine layer. The NAM-12 and GFS forecast 850-mb temperatures over Fresno to drop 5 c from 00z Wednesday /1700 PDT this afternoon/ to 00z Thursday... and the European model (ecmwf) has a 4.5 c drop. This will cool the region to near normal Wednesday...with little change expected through the end of the week. Do not plan any changes to the forecast at this time. Note...the latest 100-degree day for Fresno is October 14th 1978 with 100 degrees. The latest 100-degree day for Bakersfield is October 17th 1959 with 100 degrees. The earliest freezing temperature for Fresno is October 19th 1949 with 30 degrees. The earliest freezing temperature for Bakersfield is October 21st 1906 with 32 degrees. [end of update] 14-Oct-2011 11:52 AM Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 1020 am PDT Friday Oct 14 2011 Synopsis... high pressure continues to reside over the region. This will bring well above average temperatures through Saturday. Gradual cooling is expected Sunday and into early next week as the ridge begins to weaken. && Discussion... high pressure continues over the region today. However there is a weak upper low that has been residing off the coast of Baja California the past few days and it is beginning to lift northeast and is spreading some high level clouds into California. The clouds are spreading northward faster than previously expected...so have increased sky cover in the grids for today. These high clouds will be the only effect from this weak low as it weakens further as it runs into the ridge Saturday. The question for today is how much the cloud cover will affect temperatures. Throughout the San Joaquin Valley temperatures are expected to be about 90 degrees today. But even if we fall a degree or two shy of 90 it will still be above normal for middle October. The ridge will remain over the region through the weekend. Temperatures will edge back toward normal by Tuesday as a low pressure system currently near 140w lifts moves closer to the coast. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue to have timing differences with this system...but they are in general agreement in moving the trough across northern California sometime between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. The 12z GFS remains dry as this trough passes while the 00z European model (ecmwf) indicates some precipitation is possible across northern California...but it should stay north of the Hanford County warning forecast area. [end of update] 08-Oct-2011 6:13 AM The Latest Forecast from The NWS Hanford Ca. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 333 am PDT Sat Oct 8 2011 Synopsis... high pressure aloft will gradually build over the region through the weekend with a warming trend. A weak disturbance will move across central California Monday...before an even stronger upper level high moves into the area middle week. This high will push temperatures to above normal readings Wednesday through Friday. && Discussion...high pressure aloft was gradually pushing toward the West Coast early this morning. A dry northerly flow prevails across central California...and this will continue to bring below normal temperatures to the region today...though 5-8 degrees warmer than yesterday. Still some patchy low clouds early this morning...and with slight cyclonic curvature still across central California cant rule out some afternoon clouds over the Sierra foothills with daytime heating. The upper ridge will continue to be anchored in the east Pacific west of California over the next several days...as a series of shortwave troughs move over the top of the ridge. These shortwaves will have little impact on central California...except to slow the warming trend a bit Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday...the center of the ridge will push inland over California bringing stronger warming...along with a neutral or weak offshore flow. Maximum temperatures middle to late week are still a bit in question...as models have not had consistent 850mb forecasts. But overall...it will warm to above normal levels...with the likely return of a few 90 degree readings in the valley and deserts Thursday and/or Friday. Beyond the scope of this forecast just yet...next weekend looks cooler with more clouds. Medium range models highly divergent with respect to any precipitation at this time...the ecm wettest/GFS driest. [end of update] 06-Oct-2011 10:39 AM Bass Lake Rainfall and Storm Totals Due to a malfunction of our rain gauge yesterday, the system did not accurately report our rainfall totals until the issue was discovered and corrected at around 10:30 PM last evening. We have recently lost a very special pet and the grief over this loss has distracted us from our usual vigilance regarding station operations. Had I been in a normal frame of mind, the debris clogged rain bucket would have been noticed and cleaned out long before it was allowed to fill up with water. The bucket was cleared of the debris plugging the release hole and the accumulated rainfall was then allowed to pass through the tipping bucket system to be counted. No rainfall total data was lost during the incident. Only the real-time conditions, total and rainfall rates during the day were effected. We apologize for this oversight and it will not happen again! Here are the current rainfall totals from the station: Total Yesterday: 1.80 inches Total so far today: 0.08 inches Storm Total to Date: 1.88 inches Total for the season: 1.92 inches Radar is currently indicating a band of precipitation moving towards our area from the north west. Upslope precipitation is expected to arrive within the next few hours. Expect periods of light to moderate rainfall with periods of dry conditions in between these cells of unstable air until this evening. Overnight lows are expected to dip into the high 30s once again tonight to be followed by a gradual warming trend through the weekend with fair skies continuing into all of next week. [end of update] 04-Oct-2011 7:30 PM Rain Arriving Late - Heavy at Times Wednesday Through Thursday Afternoon The big northern cold front we have been talking about for weeks is almost here! Radar is detecting significant rain with this system and portions of Northern California are already being effected. We can expect our first measurable precipitation to begin sometime around midnight and continue heavy at times through all of Wednesday. The storm will then exit the area on Thursday with lingering rain and snow showers well into Thursday afternoon and quite possibly Thursday evening. After that we expect a gradual warming with fair skies forecast for Friday and the weekend. Here is the latest Infrared Satellite image of the pacific showing the current front with the larger system moving slowly in from the north west. Here is the latest NextRad radar image of the state showing the incoming precipitation currently effecting Northern California. We will be back tomorrow with some rain and storm totals! Stay tuned and don't forget to register on our new Bass Lake Weather Discussion Forums [end of update] 03-Oct-2011 10:08 PM Possible Light Rain Late Monday Night - Dry Tuesday with Rain Late A weakening frontal system is moving into central California from the south west. Current radar shows a light band of precipitation just now entering the central valley. If the band does not break up as it hits the Sierra, the Bass Lake area could see some light showers near midnight and into early Tuesday. Here is the latest Infrared Satellite image of the pacific showing the current front with the larger system still in the pacific but moving slowly in from the north. However, this is not the big winter storm we have been talking about for the last week. That system is still at least 24 hours away at the time of this update. Expect cloudy skies tomorrow with mainly dry conditions with rain developing near midnight and intensifying through the morning and afternoon of Wednesday. Rainfall totals are expected to be between 1.00 and 2.50 inches before the system exits east of the area on Thursday. A Winter Storm Warning will be in effect from 3AM Wednesday morning until 5AM Thursday morning for the Sierra above 7000 feet. (Click the Watches and Warning Tab at the top of this page for more details) We will have more on the big storm starting tomorrow afternoon depending on the speed and direction of the approaching cold front. Stay tuned! [end of update] 02-Oct-2011 9:22 AM NEW Weather Discussion Forums Added to Website! We have decided to open up the discussion to you our visitors by creating a new weather discussion forum on our server! Now you can ask us questions and discuss the local weather with other residents and folks who visit our station website! The forum system is now open to new users, so we invite everyone to follow the link below and sign up today! Bass Lake Weather Discussion Forums We will be posting a new weather related update later today or tomorrow morning so stay tuned! [end of update] 30-Sep-2011 8:11 PM First Winter Storm of the Season to Arrive Tuesday Night! All of the various model runs have come to a consensus that the Bass Lake area and much of Central California will see its first winter storm of the season arrive sometime Tuesday night. The system is expected to make land fall in Northern California Tuesday afternoon and then slowly drift south east throughout the night. Rain and snow is forecast for the Sierra beginning on Tuesday night and lasting trough Thursday morning. Rain total amounts remain unclear at this still early stage of the forecast, but the NWS seems all but certain that we will pick up some measurable precipitation from this system. In the meantime, another system is moving in from the south and already impacting parts of Southern California. This is monsoonal moisture containing the remnants of Hurricane Hilary which has broken down considerably over the last few days. There is a slight chance that our area will see some unstable air from this southerly flow and there is the suggestion that we could see some scattered Thunderstorms over the weekend. We can expect periods of clouds and sun on Saturday and Sunday with an increasing amount of cloud cover Monday and into Tuesday before the more potent cold front arrives. Expect the high temps of the last few days to give way to below normal temps beginning on Sunday. We will of course be closely monitoring both weather systems and will update this journal when we feel enough new data has come in to add to next week's forecast. Stay tuned, and start preparing for some very winter-like weather very soon! [end of update] 28-Sep-2011 1:11 PM First Major Storm of the Season Next Week? By all indications it is looking likely that by this time next week we could be seeing some measurable rainfall for the Bass Lake area! Going back through our journal to this same span of time last year it would make sense. Last year the station logged the first measurable rainfall of the season on October 2nd with 0.06 inches total. Nothing huge, but this was the official first day. One thing that is different this year that we did not see in 2010 was a small bit of precipitation in July (0.02 in) and again in September (0.02 in). So, we are heading into October with a bit of a head start of 0.04 in. Between now and next week we can expect the current ridge to remain over the area until Sunday, bringing us nice warm temps and an overall pleasant weather pattern before the arrival of this first system. As we mentioned above, the latest model runs are coming into agreement and predicting a rather significant system by the middle of next week. The fact that we are once again in a relatively strong La Nina pattern similar to the one that brought us so much rain and snow last year, coupled with another early fall system could indicate a repeat of the winter of 2010. This of course would be welcome news since it will finally top off all of the reservoirs including Shasta Lake which had been so incredibly low for the past 5 years! Welcome news indeed! It will also likely bring the 2011 fire season to a close without any major wildfires for our area. Again...Good news! We will of course be closely monitoring the weather pattern change and will report the storm's arrival as it happens, IF it happens! In the meantime, stay tuned to our website for the latest realtime weather data as it develops! In the meantime... Here is the latest information from the NWS in Hanford regarding next week... Medium range forecasts are indicating a drier onshore flow becoming established on Saturday...but there remains some timing uncertainty of when it will push out the high based moisture. By Sunday the Great Basin ridge will be knocked down as a strong storm takes aim at the Pacific northwest. This will in turn open the door for a potentially strong winter storm type system to hit central California by the middle of next week. There are considerable timing differences with the models as the GFS brings it into our area Tuesday night and Wednesday while the European model (ecmwf) lags the GFS by a day and brings it into our area beyond the forecast period. Either way confidence is improving that our area will have a significant precipitation event next week that will bring the first modest snowfall of the season to the higher elevations of the southern Sierra Nevada. [end of update] 27-Sep-2011 7:04 AM The Latest from the National Weather Service Hanford Ca. (Updated at 2:47PM) Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 247 PM PDT Tuesday Sep 27 2011 Synopsis... an upper level ridge has moved into the region and will continue to create a gradual warming trend through the remainder of the week. A strong cold front will move through the region next weekend bringing a chance of showers to the central California interior. && Discussion...just a few high clouds are drifting southwest this afternoon as high pressure is now centered near Mono Lake. Forecast models keep this high pressure ridge in place through Thursday and then shift this feature to the east setting up a southeast flow aloft. The WRF model continues to bring a weak area of low pressure into the Southern California coast on Friday however whether or not this will be strong enough to trigger any convection over the mountains remains sketchy. I have left the slight chance probability of precipitation over the Kern County mountains for this scenario. By Saturday the incoming Pacific trough is now prognosticated to be weaker than previous projections thus the precipitation forecast for the weekend has been adjusted downward. Additionally, hurricane hillary is now longer prognosticated to move northward into Baja California California rather stay on a westward track and then dissipate over the ocean. The emphasis on precipitation chances now shifts to end of the extended period as the GFS and European model (ecmwf) models bring another, seemingly stronger Pacific frontal system into the region. The GFS model is faster and stronger with this system and brings the threat of precipitation well into central California by Tuesday. On the other hand the European model (ecmwf) model is slower by about 24 hours and is farther north, keeping all threat of rain well to the north. I have included a chance along the northern border on Tuesday however this will likely change with time. The main weather impacts this week will be a warming trend followed by cooler weather on the weekend. [end of update] 23-Sep-2011 10:22 PM Possible T-Storms This Weekend! The latest from Hanford! Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 845 PM PDT Friday Sep 23 2011 Synopsis... tropical moisture moving northward into the region will produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms...primarily over the Kern County mountains through Saturday. Otherwise...high pressure will continue to bring above normal temperatures. Cooling over the are is expected by Sunday as lower pressure invades California. && Update... thunderstorms becoming more widespread this evening and moving across the San Joaquin Valley. Have made updates to the forecast this evening with more changes expected through out the night. The first concern will be the red flag warning for the Kern County mountains this evening. Based on the number of lightning strikes this evening and convective development still rolling in from the south to southeast...may have to extend the warning beyond 11 PM PDT this evening. Short range models continue to show activity beyond 11 PM PDT and through 200 am PDT on Saturday. While the atmosphere does stabilize overnight...models show a continuation of convective activity on Saturday afternoon. Yet...with the flow aloft shifting more westerly...convective activity should be confined to the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi range. At this point...models show the upper level trough finally moving east and through central California by Saturday night as a cold frontal system pushes into the Pacific northwest. Therefore... after the last lingering showers on Sunday the atmosphere will dry out as cool air filters into district later this weekend. The cooling trend will be short lived as ridge regains control of the west toward midweek. Yet...a dry flow aloft will keep the district dry through the end of the forecast period. Will make updates as convective activity continues to roll through. [end of update] 21-Sep-2011 10:11 PM The Latest from The National Weather Service Hanford Ca. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 832 PM PDT Wednesday Sep 21 2011 Synopsis...high pressure will continue to bring above normal temperatures to the region through Saturday. Enough moisture is available for isolated afternoon and evening showers and thundershowers over the southern Sierra. Otherwise dry. The high pressure area will weaken Sunday with a cooling trend Sunday and Monday. [end of update] 19-Sep-2011 11:50 AM Ken Clark of Accuweather: "Early Winter Prediction: La Nina Making a Big Comeback" As I have mentioned a few updates back, the Climate Prediction Center has been warning of increasing La Nina activity out in the Pacific. Today, Ken Clark dedicates his entire report to this development and explains what all this means for us up here in the Southern Sierra Nevada. Check out Ken's La Nina report HERE! As you will read in his report, it is still unclear whether we will see the same increased storm activity that we saw last year from a similarly strong La Nina pattern. [end of update] 18-Sep-2011 7:49 PM Warming Trend This Week Followed by Possibly Unsettled Weather by Late Sunday Here is the latest from the NWS Hanford Ca. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 218 PM PDT sun Sep 18 2011 Synopsis... high pressure continues to build over the region raising temperatures several degrees by tomorrow...and remain above normal through Friday. && Discussion... The central California interior is enjoying a splendid sun splashed afternoon. Even the beaches are cashing in on sunshine today as a weak offshore keeps low stratus away from the coast. The nice weather is compliments of an upper level ridge of high pressure that is currently centered over the Desert Southwest. This ridge will dominate the pattern for at least the next few days and bring dry weather with a day to day warming trend across the County Warning Area. Wednesday will likely be the warmest day in the period with maximum temperatures averaging a good 6 to 10 degrees above normal. The nights will be relatively cool...especially outside of the urban areas...with clear skies and nearly calm winds. On Thursday...temperatures will begin to trend downward a bit as the center of the upper level ridge migrates to The Four Corners area. Nonetheless...temperatures will remain above normal as Summer officially ends and autumn begins. (2:05 am PDT friday) On Friday...the models amplify the upper level ridge over The Rockies and develop a weak closed low off the Southern California coast. This type of pattern opens the window to the advection of monsoonal moisture northwestward into central California from Friday afternoon through Saturday. The ecm is a bit more excited about bringing middle level moisture into the County Warning Area than the GFS is during this time...but it was felt that this was probably overdone. Hence...the forecast was kept dry although there might be an increase in altocumulus later in the weak...especially over the mountains and desert. By next Sunday...the models develop a much deeper upper level trough over the eastern Pacific and establish a southwesterly flow aloft over central California which in turn would sweep any monsoonal moisture well east of our County Warning Area. The GFS and ecm forecast further deepening of this trough and actually form a rather strong closed low just offshore the northern and central California coast by next Sunday night and Monday. If this comes to fruition...the weather across the central California interior could become unsettled and dramatically cooler by September 26th. It will be interesting to see how the long range models handle this feature in the days to come. ================================================================== [end of update] 15-Sep-2011 8:46 PM Climate Outlook for Fall 2011 Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on September 15th, 2011 For those who want the Reader's Digest version of the following, here are some visual aids! ;o) Temperature Estimates for October Precipitation Estimates for October PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EDT THURSDAY SEP 15 2011 SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS THE MAIN FACTORS WHICH USUALLY INFLUENCE THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE: 1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH COMPRISE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION OR ENSO. IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH OBSERVATIONS FROM 3 OR MORE DECADES INTO EL NINO, NEUTRAL, AND LA NINA SETS, AVERAGING EACH SEPARATELY, AND THEN COMPUTING ANOMALIES. THESE ARE CALLED "ENSO COMPOSITES", AND ARE USED AT TIMES TO SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST. 2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (CURRENTLY 1981-2010). 3) THE TROPICAL 30-60 DAY OSCILLATION - SOMETIMES CALLED MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) - AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN SEASONS. 4) THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS. THESE PHENOMENA ARE LESS PREDICTABLE BEYOND A WEEK OR TWO IN THE FUTURE. 5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) - AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AFFECTING THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN REGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIME-SCALE THAN ENSO. 6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. 7) STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE (CA) AND ENSEMBLE CCA (ECCA). 8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS - INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS). THE UPGRADED PARALLEL VERSION OF THE CFS (CFSV2) BECAME OPERATIONAL IN LATE MARCH OF 2011. BOTH VERSIONS OF CFS ARE CURRENTLY RUN IN PARALLEL. AN EXPERIMENTAL MODEL, THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE, COMPRISED OF SEVERAL MODELS AND DESIGNATED NMME, MAY ALSO BE USED EXPERIMENTALLY AND SUBJECTIVELY. 9) CONSOLIDATION (CON) - AN OBJECTIVE, SKILL WEIGHTED COMBINATION OF THE OCN, CCA, SMLR, ECCA, AND CFS FORECASTS IS USED AS A FIRST GUESS IN PREPARING THE FORECAST MAPS. THIS TECHNIQUE MAKES OPTIMUM USE OF THE KNOWN SKILL OF OUR FORECAST TOOLS. SINCE THE LAST SEASONAL OUTLOOK, LA NINA CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED. THIS IS INDICATED BY A STRENGTHENING OF NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND AN INCREASE IN BELOW-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC ALSO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CHARACTERISTICS OF LA NINA. IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA ARE NOW INDICATED DURING THE AUTUMN, WINTER AND SPRING MONTHS IN THIS OUTLOOK. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR OND 2011 SHOWS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR AREAS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS TO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. BELOW-MEDIAN SEASONAL TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE LIKELIHOODS OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE AND SEASONAL TOTAL PRECIPITATION ARE SIMILAR TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE ARE INDICATED. AS WE SHIFT INTO AND THROUGH THE WINTER, ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE APPEAR FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, THE WEST COAST AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH. FOR PRECIPITATION, ABOVE MEDIAN SEASONAL TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AREAS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.. BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING You can read the entire climatology report HERE =========================================================================================== [end of update] 15-Sep-2011 11:25 AM Weekend Weather Update from The National Weather Service Hanford Ca. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 945 am PDT Thursday Sep 15 2011 IR Satellite Image 11:05AM PDT 09/15/11 Synopsis... the weak upper low that was over Nevada yesterday has moved further east toward The Four Corners region. This will keep the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms just over the higher elevations of the sierras. Onshore flow will increase the next few days bringing more stable air and cooler temperatures. Cooling will start today in the northern valley region and then spread throughout the entire valley tomorrow. Cooler temperatures and dry weather will continue through the weekend. && Update... ruc80 upper air analysis showed very little movement of the upper low that has been affecting the district. With this...will see another day of mountain convection as additional wrap-around moisture pushes on to the eastern side of the Sierra Nevada range. While clear skies were observed this morning...short range models still showing a northeast flow pattern at the upper levels along with marginal instability across the mountains. Therefore... orographic lift and an unstable atmosphere will support convection this afternoon. Yet...visible satellite imagery and wind profiler data show a very deep marine layer along the coast that will influence conditions across the San Joaquin Valley today and into this weekend. Short range models along with water vapor imagery is showing the westerlies starting to push on to the coast which will allow marine air to filter into the valley. Along with the cooler air...the increasing westerly wind will push today/S convection eastward into the Owens Valley and Great Basin toward sunset and this evening. By Friday morning...the westerlies will dominate the area...keeping convection outside of the district for several days. For now...will make no updates and monitor the district for today convection. [end of update] 13-Sep-2011 9:59 PM Storm Update Just as the cells began to arrive over the Bass Lake area this evening, the sun went down thus removing the energy supply for the storm cells and they quickly dissipated. The radar now looks totally clear. The NWS is still predicting the possibility of yet another round of similar weather tomorrow afternoon, but by Thursday this threat would have moved east. It will be replaced with a gradual cooling trend through the weekend and into the first half of next week. Things should remain dry with no chance of precipitation through this period. Here is the latest NWS update for your reading enjoyment. ;o) Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 900 PM PDT Tuesday Sep 13 2011 Synopsis... a weak upper level low pressure area continues to linger across the region and is expected to lift out by Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm activity in the mountains and deserts can be expected to linger at least through this evening. && Discussion...the center of the upper low is moving across socal this evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms over the mountains this afternoon have for the most part died out...but some residual showers or isolated thunderstorms are still possible in the mountains until about midnight. Updated forecasts to end most precipitation except for a lingering shower over the mountains The upper low over the region will be slow to kick out...and Wednesday looks like it could still be fairly active over the southern Sierra. Raised probability of precipitation a bit for the afternoon and evening per latest models. [end of update] 13-Sep-2011 6:02 PM Possible Lighting and Thunderstorm Activity! Radar is showing a relatively large cell of thunderstorms moving towards the Bas Lake area from the north. Lighting strikes are already being indicated within a 5 mile radius of the station. (black dots with white borders on radar image) Stay tuned to our home page for the latest weather conditions, to see this radar in motion and for real-time precipitation/wind updates! [end of update] 12-Sep-2011 9:10 AM The Latest from the NWS Hanford Ca. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 239 am PDT Monday Sep 12 2011 Synopsis... the airmass over central California is expected to remain unstable enough to allow the threat of showers and thunderstorms to continue over the Sierra Nevada and foothills...as well as the desert for at least the next couple of days. Drier air will arrive later this week for an end to the thunderstorm threat. [end of update] 11-Sep-2011 8:54 PM Radar Indicates Large Band of Moisture Rotating Towards Our Location! The low pressure system that brought us rain yesterday and mostly cloudy skies today, remains firmly in place this evening. The RED ARROW indicates our station's location on this wide angle map of the state. The moisture band you see directly north of our position is rotating counter clockwise, pushing that disturbance south by southeast. In addition to the systems rotation, it is also slowly moving east, which may put Bass Lake in a direct line to be right in line with this moisture band later this evening. The NWS is giving us only a 30% shank of precipitation through tonight, but there is still a chance that the moisture band shown on this recent radar image could bring us some respectable rain later tonight. NOTE: All the previous red flag warnings related to dry lighting and high winds have expired. [end of update] 11-Sep-2011 12:08 AM Low Pressure System Update We picked up 0.02 inches of precipitation on Saturday the 10th of September along with some very close and loud Thunder and Lighting. This was the first Thunder Storm and measurable rainfall we have seen in the month of September since 2009 where we recorded 0.01 for the entire month. Starting at about 8:00PM that same evening, the station sounded a high wind warning as another round of outflow winds came through the area. Our highest wind gust of the day was recorded at 8:16PM with 18 mph. The wind continues to blow as of this update just after midnight on 09/11/11. Have been observing a rather large swath of precipitation currently moving over the Kern County area and heading in our direction. If the rotation continues at its current rate, we could see a significant rain event later this morning. [end of update] 09-Sep-2011 4:44 PM FIRE WEATHER WARNING ISSUED BY NWS RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN SIERRA BELOW 5,000 FEET ... Red flag warning now in effect until midnight PDT Saturday night for dry lightning and gusty outflow winds for the southern Sierra Nevada below 5000 feet... The red flag warning for dry lightning and gusty outflow winds is now in effect until midnight PDT Saturday night. * Affected area... Sierra Nevada zones 293... 294... 296... and 297 below 5000 feet. * Timing... thunderstorms developing over the Sierra Nevada will spread into the lower elevations this afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms will continue over these same areas Saturday through Saturday night. The storms are expected to be mainly dry below 5000 feet. * Outflow winds... strong... gusty and erratic winds are possible in and near thunderstorms. * Impacts... very dry fuels... scattered dry lightning strikes and locally gusty outflow winds may combine to create a hazardous fire environment near and below 5000 feet. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now... or will shortly. Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the field of this red flag warning. [end of update] 08-Sep-2011 3:21 PM FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR BASS LAKE AREA! From the National Weather Service Hanford Ca. URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 1156 AM PDT THU SEP 8 2011 ...CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE FOOTHILLS BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN NEVADA. DRY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND FOOTHILLS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME WETTER BY SATURDAY AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO DRY LIGHTNING...DRY FUELS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA BELOW 5000 FEET INCLUDING THE FOOTHILLS. CAZ293-294-296-297-090400- /O.NEW.KHNX.FW.A.0001.110909T1800Z-110910T1200Z/ MARIPOSA/MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS- TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS- SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON NATIONAL PARK- TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS- 1156 AM PDT THU SEP 8 2011 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA INCLUDING THE FOOTHILLS BELOW 5000 FEET... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HANFORD HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. * AFFECTED AREA...IN SIERRA FOOTHILL ZONES 293 AND 294. BELOW 5000 FEET IN SIERRA NEVADA ZONES 296 AND 297. * THUNDERSTORMS...MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA CREST FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN MOISTEN UP BY SATURDAY. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * IMPACTS...VERY DRY FUELS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY COMBINE TO CREATE A HAZARDOUS FIRE ENVIRONMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE FIRE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. [end of update] 07-Sep-2011 2:53 PM Possible "WET" Pattern Change Coming This Weekend! Based on the latest weather data coming in which includes some cautions by the Hanford office of the NWS, I thought it made sense to post an update here just in case! NWS Discussion Excerpt "Speaking of the low, forecast models continue to project the path of the low to reach Reno area by Thursday afternoon and then by Friday afternoon retrograde to a position near Point Conception. The low is then prognosticated to become stationary in the Saturday and Sunday time frame and its associated instability is forecast to remain over central California. Given this continued model run to run consistency, I have upped the probability of precipitation in the Sierra into the likely category for Saturday and Sunday and to chance probability of precipitation over all other areas of the forecast area. This system will certainly be a big weather changer with much cooler temperatures, the threat of lower elevation showers and thunderstorms including the San Joaquin Valley and even some higher elevation snow showers above 10000 feet in the Sierra. The biggest question mark at this time is moisture availability as if enough entrainment of tropical moisture occurs, the rainfall amounts could be very significant. Otherwise, just light showers and a few embedded heavier thunderstorms will be the likely outcome. Many changes to the grids have been made and many more are likely as this dynamic pattern change evolves." _______________________________________________________________ So... While this is no 100% guarantee that we are going to get wet this weekend, the chances do appear to be a lot higher than normal for this time of year. If you have weekend plans that include any outdoor activities, you would be well advised to prepare for the possibility of some showers or thunderstorms. [end of update] 28-Aug-2011 10:18 PM UPDATE! Regular Weather Status Reports to Resume in Mid to Late September 2011 As the Sierra summer begins to wind down, we will be winding up our weather station status reports as well as local weather activity updates. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your summer, stay tuned to our website for the latest UV Index reports during the day, and check our FireWeather Information page for our current REAL-TIME Fire Risk Assessment. We currently have a continuous HIGH DANGER level which has been rising into the VERY HIGH risk levels over the last several days. If you are spending time in our local forests, BE VERY CAREFUL WITH ANY OPEN FLAME OR COOKING GEAR! See you in the Fall! Weather Station Operations Madis D2149 - Bass Lake Ca. [end of update] 16-Jul-2011 10:47 AM Extremely High UV Index Values Continue Over the Bass Lake Area! Our average high UV right now is hovering around 11, which on a scale of 0-15 is considered to be EXTREME! Folks spending time outdoors and especially on the lake need to be aware of how strong the UV levels are up here this time of the year. With levels this high, it only takes about 20 minutes in direct sun without protection to develop a VERY serious sunburn on all unprotected areas! Check our home page before going outdoors this summer, to see what level of UV index you will be subjected to! ================================================================ The Latest Weather Forecast from The National Weather Service / Hanford Ca. _______________________________________________________________ National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 1018 am PDT Sat Jul 16 2011 Synopsis...an upper level trough along the coast is expected to dominate through the weekend. Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals through Monday as cooler marine air invades the San Joaquin Valley. High pressure will then build into the central California interior allowing temperatures to gradually warm for the rest of the week. ------------------------------------------------------------- [end of report] 10-Jul-2011 5:42 AM Important Announcement Concerning NOAA Weather Radio KIH-62 Streaming Audio on the Internet Earlier this morning, the dedicated computer we use to stream the NOAA Weather Radio feed to the internet 24/7 shut down unexpectedly with a catastrophic motherboard failure. Unfortunately, we can not afford to repair or replace this machine at this time, and therefore, our volunteer support for the streaming of KIH 62 Fresno/Hanford is hereby terminated effective immediately. We have contacted the NWS and informed them of the situation. Hopefully, they will be able to put another system in place to take over this 24/7 duty, or find an alternate volunteer and make them the primary. Any questions on this matter should be directed to The National Weather Service Forecast Office - Hanford. Ca. We apologize for the loss of service, but hope that those who have used this internet radio feed during our streaming server's nearly three years of 24/7 operation have appreciated our efforts. [end of update] 05-Jul-2011 6:32 AM Possible Thunderstorms Today and Tomorrow! Monsoonal moisture moving up from the south will bring the chance of T-Storms to the Bass Lake area today and tomorrow. While the NWS is currently giving the chances at about 20%, past history has shown that when this condition is present, this area does tend to get some action with potentially HEAVY rainfall possible. Keep this in mind when outdoors today because lightning strikes can often accompany these slow moving systems, and heavy downpours can create the threat of flash floods through normally dry or slow flowing creeks and streams. [end of report] 04-Jul-2011 8:07 PM SYSTEM UPDATE LWC 2.1.1 Update Build #50 For OSX Lion Compatibility Installed. This build of our weather software will allow for the upgrade of this machine's operating system to OSX Lion 10.7 when applicable. We will be beta testing this release for backwards compatibility using OSX 10.6.7. [end of update] 29-Jun-2011 2:29 PM Statistical Updates - 2:30PM - Wednesday, June 29th, 2011 Storm Track Update: As of this report, the bulk of the precipitation has moved east of the Bass Lake area. However, enough instability remains in the atmosphere that with enough clearing over the next few hours and the associated heating from the summer sun, there is a possibility that we will see a few Thunderstorm cells bloom up between now and sunset. These blooms could impact our area with yet more heavy rainfall, gusty winds and even hail at times. Seasonal Rainfall Update: Because of this impressive late season rainfall which currently stands at 1.15 inches for the day, our seasonal rainfall total which ends at midnight tomorrow stands at 54.94 inches. Nearly 5 inches higher than our 2010 seasonal total. This is one of the highest seasonal rainfall totals for Bass Lake in the last 25 years! Extended Forecast: As we move further into the extended forecast, we can expect the summer heat to return with a vengeance beginning as early as tomorrow, but then another possible surprise is in the offing... The remnants of tropical storm Arlene down in Mexico could make their way into Southern California as early as Sunday, with the moist unstable air from that disturbance reaching as far north as Central California! While it is too early to know for sure, there is enough potential there that some models are predicting some significant T-Storm activity for our area by this time next week. We will of course keep our readers apprised of the situation as more information becomes available. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your week and have a safe and sane 4th of July! [end of update] 29-Jun-2011 9:45 AM Upslope Cell Stalls Over Station Resulting in Heavy Rain! The station has recorded 0.92 inches of rain so far today as the formation of an upslope cell over our area has resulted in some heavy rainfall. The instability is expected to continue with isolated showers lingering through the day today. Temps will obviously be far below normal for this time of the year. More later today as the situation unfolds. Check out the "Watches and Warnings" link above for the latest IR Sat Image. [end of report] 26-Jun-2011 11:40 PM Possibility of Rain Tuesday through Wednesday Morning! As surprising as it sounds... YES! We may see some rain in here within the next 48 hours! A cut-off low is moving down from Alaska and will be knocking on the California coast's door by Tuesday. Some of that unstable air could make its way inland and effect our weather. Regardless of the rain chances, (which the NWS is currently listing as 40%), we will likely see increasing clouds Tuesday with Wednesday likely to be an overcast day! Something to keep in mind if you had plans to head out on the lake early this week! I'm just as surprised as you are, and didn't see this one coming, but if you check the IR map in the "Watches - Warnings" link above, you will see the system I am referring to. We will continue tracking this VERY LATE season system and will update the journal when we have more info. [end of report] 25-Jun-2011 2:01 PM Station Software Update We just upgraded the weather station software to LWC 2.1 Build 1813. This is supposed to be the last beta before the public release. All of our previous extended run testing with 1811 and 1812 indicated no serious issues. This update contains a minor fix for a very small memory leak that we didn't encounter on our machine. [end of maintenance update] 21-Jun-2011 10:18 AM More Heat Till Friday Then Slight Cool Down As we officially usher in the first day of summer today with the longest day of the year, the high pressure ridge responsible for our mini heat wave is intensifying and will remain in place until at least Friday afternoon followed by a slight cool down over the weekend. We say slight because the difference will only be a few degrees. Meanwhile, the station has started to record the highest temps so far this year with the 88 degree high from yesterday becoming our new high for 2011 so far. UV radiation continues to be very high to extreme with our average daily max index reading flirting with 12 on an EPA scale that only goes to 15! The UV radiation this time of year at our altitude is nothing to take lightly if you value your skin and eyes! Always best to check the station before heading out on the lake to see what the current index reading is and heed any UV alerts you may see posted at the top of our home page. In other weather news... The NWS aerial flood warnings and watches for the Sierra foothills and points below dams continues indefinitely as the sudden warm up is quickly melting our exceptionally deep Sierra snow pack. With the arrival of the summer heat also comes the potential threat of wild fires, so you may want to start checking our Fire Weather Information page for the latest real-time fire danger posting. Our system uses all the various weather data from the station to calculate the realtime fire risk for that moment in time and displays the danger level at the top of the page. If you haven't yet checked this out, we invite you to take a look and bookmark the page HERE. That about covers it for this report. As we officially arrive at the summer season, we also hit our slowest weather activity period of the year and with that, a significant reduction in the amount of journal posts we will be adding to this section. New reports will be added as needed, but from now until about mid September you can expect them to be few and far between. [end of report] 15-Jun-2011 8:59 AM Many Aerial Flood Warnings Remain in Effect Due to Heavy Snow Melt in Sierra Back Country * Very High to Extreme UV Index Readings All This Week! Areal Flood Warnings Continue For Areas Near Local Streams While we are finally enjoying some summer like weather, we must also contend with potential flooding from local streams due to the increased snow melt from a much larger than normal snow pack. While the Bass Lake area itself is mostly unaffected by this situation, properties below the dam and further downstream need to remain vigilant to the potential for rising water levels and local flooding. You can stay up to date on the latest information regarding this situation HERE. Very High To Extreme UV Index Levels! The station's UV sensor has been reporting some worrying UV levels over the last several days reaching into the "EXTREME" category. While any UV index above 6.0 is cause for concern, when levels reach 11 and above, some scientists warn that ANY direct sun exposure even with a liberal application of wide spectrum SPF 15 or higher is still dangerous! The index tends to begin reaching warning levels just before 11AM and continues in the alert ranges well past 3PM. Our station posts UV index alerts in real time so all you have to do to monitor the current UV index for Bass Lake is to stay tuned to our station's home page. on the web. You can learn more about the various UV index warning stages HERE. The EPA provides UV Index forecasts for any location simply by entering your zipcode into THIS PAGE. In station maintenance news, we installed another incremental update of LWC yesterday bringing us up to build # 1812 [end of report] 13-Jun-2011 10:31 AM Software Update LWC 2.1 Development Build #1811 installed and running with no immediate issues to report. A few behind the scene fixes and a few new graph formats. We may roll out a few of those new ones on our public facing Gauges/Graphs Page over the next few weeks. [end of update] 12-Jun-2011 11:32 AM Areal Flood Warnings Continue For Areas Near Local Streams While we are finally enjoying some summer like weather, we must also contend with potential flooding from local streams due to the increased snow melt from a much larger than normal snow pack. While the Bass Lake area itself is mostly unaffected by this situation, properties below the dam and further downstream need to remain vigilant to the potential for rising water levels and local flooding. You can stay up to date on the latest information regarding this situation HERE. [end of report] 06-Jun-2011 9:01 PM Quick Update for Tuesday and Beyond The NWS has backed off their previous predictions of more significant rain for our area on Tuesday. While there is still a slight chance of some isolated showers due to upsloping within the remaining instability, we are not going to see any significant rain event as was previously predicted. Instead, Tuesday will be the beginning of a slow warming trend that will eventually bring us into seasonal norms for early June. Even so, we are still going to remain in an unusual troughy pattern for the next 7-10 days which will mean that the warm up will be very gradual instead of a giant leap straight into summer temps. Enjoy it while it lasts because by this time next month we are likely to be baking under some truly seasonal summer heat! [end of report] 06-Jun-2011 7:09 AM STORM UPDATE - Impressive storm totals for early June! With the passage of a large string of thunderstorms last night through the county warning area, the NWS has declared June 2011 to be the 4th wettest June on record! Our stats are equally impressive with many records being broken in terms of temperatures and total precipitation. Our storm total since June 4th now stands at 1.28 inches bringing our seasonal total to a whopping 53.78 inches! That is easily 3 inches above average and there appears to be more rain to come before all is said and done! The latest models are indicating that yet another low pressure system will be dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday for another round of potential TS activity for our area. Today we can expect about a 50% chance of additional showers as the current low pressure system moves east and out of our area. There is still enough instability to warrant a decent threat of upslope cloud formation and thunderstorm generation. We will update the journal again tomorrow when we have more info on the next potential system. [end of update] 04-Jun-2011 7:16 AM STORM UPDATE The highly unusual and LARGE low pressure system is beginning to take on the look of a pacific cyclone, so we thought it would be a good idea to document the system with a few journal images and links. A distinct "eye" is beginning to form at the center of the low: Wide Angle Pacific Sat Image You can always monitor the latest IR Sat images from the NWS by following the link below: View Animated Sat Image Here! As of this report, the primary precipitation bands are remaining just west of the Bass Lake area and with little in the way of eastern movement right now, it could take several more hours before we begin to pick up any measurable precipitation. However, as you can see from this shot from our wide angle precipitation map, the rain rates are very impressive so far! Another view from the state wide NextRad system: Along with the increased clouds and precipitation our overnight lows have risen nicely and we may not have to be so concerned with a frost or freeze tonight, but as the center of the low moves east and over our area, temps are expected to drop dramatically Sunday night through early Monday morning. If you have recently planted your summer veggies you are urged to keep track of overnight lows beginning Sunday night. Stay tuned to our website for the latest realtime precipitation reports as they happen! [end of update] 02-Jun-2011 8:27 AM Potential for Record Breaking Weather This Weekend As hard as it is to believe, the west coast is still locked in a highly unusual trough pattern that has been pulling Alaskan storms south and well into our forecast area. This weekend will prove to be yet another unusual weather making period with NWS models indicating a high probability for record breaking low temps as well as potentially high amounts of precipitation for the Sierra. While it is still uncertain exactly how this next big system will unfold, chances look good for some wet weather beginning Saturday and lingering well into Monday. The long range models then indicate continued below normal temps through at least the middle of next week. The delayed summer weather also means that local gardeners will have to remain vigilant for the next 4-6 days when overnight lows in the Bass Lake area could once again be flirting with the freezing mark. Stay tuned to the station web site for the latest news on storm developments. [end of report] 30-May-2011 11:00 AM Nice for a Few Days then... Possible Cold Front Wednesday Enjoy the next few days because come Wednesday temps are expected to drop back 10 to 20 degrees BELOW normal as another late season storm system pushes east from the pacific. ! It is still uncertain if the system will bring any precipitation as far south as Bass Lake, but it remains a distinct possibility. Yet another system may effect the Central California region this coming weekend but models are still conflicted and thus confidence is low. [end of report] 29-May-2011 7:21 AM Over 1/4 Inch of Rain Recorded Since 10PM Last Night! This unusually wet weather continues today as the latest in a series of late season storm systems brushes by the Bass Lake area. The station recorded a storm total so far of 0.27 inches which began as light showers late last night and quickly progressed into a rather impressive rain event. A high rain rate of 0.30 in/h was recorded just before midnight last night before turning to a more showery pattern this morning. The NWS is forecasting a 50% chance of additional showers today as the system moves through the area. Thanks to the rain event, our overnight temps were much higher than previously predicted which spared all those spring gardens from getting frostbit. The latest extended forecast calls for continued below normal temps (-10 to -20 degrees F) through the remainder of this week with the potential for yet another storm system to begin effecting our area next weekend. [end of report] 28-May-2011 7:14 AM Unseasonably COLD Temps Tonight and Sunday! A late season cold low pressure system will move through our area later today and tomorrow bringing exceptionally cold temps to Bass Lake overnight and early Sunday morning. The NWS is predicting a drop of between 10-15 degrees from the last few days both as highs and overnight lows. Recently planted spring flowers and vegetables will need to be brought inside or covered to prevent possible frost and freeze damage. Scattered showers are also a possibility later today and tonight ahead of the main cold front. While it is unclear if temps will dive below the freezing mark tomorrow morning, it is a pretty sure bet that temps will reach down to at least the mid 30s by 6AM Sunday morning. The system will exit the area Sunday night with a return to more normal weather and temps for late May/early June by Tuesday. [end of report] 22-May-2011 11:38 AM Weather Software Update LWC 2.1 build 1745 installed and running. [end of update] 19-May-2011 6:14 PM Weather Software Update LWC 2.1 build 1736 installed and running. [end of update] 16-May-2011 9:56 AM More Rain in Store Tonight Through Wednesday This from the latest NWS forecast report... "The next storm has an abundance of moisture with it and will pack a one-two punch over the County Warning Area during the next 48 hours. This double barreled system will bring rain and high elevation snow to the central California interior from this evening into Tuesday morning and be followed by another round of precipitation Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Both storms combined will bring 10 inches or more of new snow to the highest elevations of the Sierra by midday Wednesday. Rain totals in the lower elevations will range from about a tenth of an inch at the south end of the sj valley to three quarters of an inch in Merced County. Although much of the Mojave Desert will be rain shadowed... some localities could pick up a few hundredths of an inch by the time the second storm system exits into the Great Basin Wednesday afternoon. " Our data agrees, so it looks like we are in for another impressive round of late season storm activity! Based on the above report coupled with yesterday's activity, we have reinstalled the heated rain bucket onto the rain gauge until these unusually cold systems pass. [end of report] 15-May-2011 7:06 AM Late Season Snowstorm Hits Bass Lake! Although the snow levels were supposed to remain well above our elevation, we ended up seeing a decent amount of the white stuff here at the station this morning. Precipitation in the form of rain began falling just before 2AM Sunday morning and has continued since. Temps dropped quickly as the cold front moved towards Central California and by 6AM the rain had transitioned over to a mix and then to pure snow. The station has logged 0.80 inches of rain and liquid equivalent snow melt so far today with more expected later as the rotating low spins the current precipitation bands around for one more pass in the next several hours. View Animated Sat Image Here! With this latest precipitation event, we have surpassed last year's seasonal rain total with 50.20 inches for the season so far and more expected before this and the next event move through our area by Wednesday night. The NWS is now warning of the potential for significant T-Storms to develop over the Southern Sierra later today as the unstable air mass is warmed by the spring sunshine. Stay tuned to our home page for the latest real time conditions updates and LIVE webcam images of this impressive late season storm. [end of report] 13-May-2011 9:00 PM Low Pressure System Arrives Sunday The NWS is now pretty confident that the weather disturbance we mentioned in our last report will indeed be effecting our area beginning Saturday night and continuing through all of Sunday. The current precipitation chance for our area on Sunday is 90%, so that gives you an idea of how likely this rain event will be. This system will leave the area on Monday morning to be followed by yet another unusual late season system on Tuesday and Wednesday. If the station encounters any unusual weather events during these systems we will post them here. We also wanted to mention that the Madera County fire season officially begins on Monday the 16th. Our Fire Weather Information Page will also be activated on Monday providing real time display of the current fire danger risk for the Bass Lake area. The threat level is calculated using all the weather data gathered by the station sensors and then analyzed to calculate fire risk. We will be testing the system this weekend, but based on the current weather we don't expect the risk assessment system to report anything other than LOW threat level for the next several days. Feel free to bookmark the page and start using it early. :o) Fire Weather Information Page [end of report] 10-May-2011 7:11 AM Potential for Unsettled Weather Returns This Weekend The station logged a rainfall total of 0.44 inches yesterday after only three hours of storm activity. The unsettled weather arrived just after 11AM yesterday and as temps rose, the cloud formation increased resulting in significant rainfall with high rain rates and large rain volume in a short time. Thunder and lighting was also observed at the peak of the storm activity. The NWS is forecasting another low pressure disturbance to arrive over the Bass Lake area later this weekend although it is too early to predict exactly how much potential rainfall we will see from this next system. Temps are expected to drop once again below climatology so those planning to do their spring planting may want to hold off for another full week before proceeding. Overnight lows during the next disturbance could fall several degrees below freezing in unprotected areas of Bass Lake. [end of report] 09-May-2011 1:53 PM STORM UPDATE: 1 inch per hour Rain Rate Recorded! - Thunder and Lightning! The instability we mentioned in our last report has blossomed into a series of moderate to severe storm cells. The station has logged 0.14 in of rain in less than 25 minutes with a mix of rain and hail. Thunder and lighting is occurring at the time of this report. Short range radar indicates several much stronger cells heading in our direction. We could be in for a pretty significant T-Storm event here today! [end of update] 09-May-2011 10:57 AM Low Pressure Instability Brings T-Storm Potential to Bass Lake This Afternoon The center of the low pressure trough is just now moving over central Nevada, with two counter clockwise rotating bands of instability/precipitation on the western and eastern sides of the system. We are beginning to see signs of the western band of instability effecting weather over the station at the time of this report. Moderate to heavy rain, lasting for over 10 minutes has already been noted with enough volume to tip the rain bucket with 0.01 inches of measurable so far. Radar indicates that more cloud formation northwest of our location is occurring right now and could build into more substantial T-Storm cells within the next few hours. If the T-Storm activity builds into a notable event today, we will update the journal with details of the data we record during any specific event. [end of report] 08-May-2011 11:41 AM LWC 2.1 Build #1722 Installed This final update before public release fixes a graph scaling problem we discovered with daily rain graphing. A few other minor changes were also contained in this latest version. New version is running perfectly at this time and daily rain graph scaling looks right on the money! We expect that 1722 will become the Golden Master and then proceed on to public release as "Lightsoft Weather Center" version 2.1. [end of report] 06-May-2011 9:29 AM Potential for Unsettled Weather Sunday and Monday Despite the unusually warm weather this week, don't start planting your garden just yet! There is a chance that we will see some below normal temps beginning Sunday as a low pressure trough moves through the area. The NWS is forecasting cloudy skies Saturday night and lingering into possibly Tuesday morning. Precipitation chances for the Bass Lake area for Sunday and Monday is currently hovering between 30% and 40%. We will update this cold and rain potential between now and Sunday morning. [end of report] 04-May-2011 9:42 AM Rain Bucket Swap Completed Without Incident Heated rain gauge collector cone was replaced with our stock VP2 rain bucket used during the hot summer months. The swap is determined based on middle May temp forecasts. May 2011 is warming a lot faster than the previous two years. This is the earliest we have swapped rain buckets, but confidence is high based on the long range forecasts, calling for little chance of snow in the Bass Lake area for the remainder of the rainy season. Next on the agenda... 2011 Fire Season Start and Re-Launch of our Fire Weather Information page later this month. Stay tuned. ;o) [end of report] 28-Apr-2011 6:56 AM UV Index Tracking Added to Station Gauges / Custom Graphs Page In light of recent high UV index readings, we have decided to add a 28 day scrolling graph of UV index levels to our collection of online weather data graphs. This will allow users to observe the UV index levels over the course of 28 days of tracking. You can view the station gauges page HERE [end of report] 27-Apr-2011 8:00 AM Unusually High UV Index Levels Prompts Early Deployment of Station's UV Index Warning System!! As summer looms and the sun angle begins rising, we are once again going to start seeing very high levels of UV radiation over the Bass Lake area. Mountain communities have always had much higher UV levels than lower elevations, but over the last few days the index readings have been a lot higher than normal. San Francisco recorded a high UV index yesterday of over 7.5 and Los Angeles reported a 9.0. Both of these indexes are considered UNUSUALLY HIGH for near sea level readings, and far above their normal of 4-5 for this time of year. D2149 recorded a high UV index yesterday of 10.2 which is getting close to the 11+ levels considered EXTREME by the EPA. Levels above 11 can cause significant skin and eye damage during direct exposure even when UV protection is used, so spending time on the lake or outside in direct sunlight when UV levels are that high is not advised, especially if you have young children along. How Our UV Alert System Works... If the UV index rises above 5.9, the station will issue a high UV alert and post it to the top header of our station home page as well as at the top of our mobile weather page for iPhone, iPad and iPod Touch users. The alerts are divided into three categories which are as follows: High UV Warning (6.0 to 7.9) Very High Warning (8.0 to 10.9) Extreme UV Warning (11.0 and above) The UV index warning system was enabled today: 04/27/11 High UV warnings tend to issue during the late morning and early afternoon hours and last until about 3-4 PM. There were a few occasions last year where the UV index remained in the alert range until well after 5PM during the months of June and July when the sun is at its highest track of the year. Based on the index readings the station has already logged for 2011, it is looking like this summer will see a significantly higher UV index average than pervious years. You can learn more about UV radiation here: EPA UV Index Scale [end of report] 26-Apr-2011 7:29 AM New Build of LWC 2.1 We are now beta testing Build #1709. A few minor bug fixes and updates. This is likely to be the final release candidate before LWC 2.1 is officially released to the public. [end of report] 25-Apr-2011 7:07 AM Last Day of Unsettled Weather - Warmup Coming! Today will provide a few chances of showers for the Bass Lake area as the last of a series of weak low pressure systems moves through. By Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure will develop and build in bringing warmer temps. By the weekend, our daytime highs may exceed the normal range for this time of year. Journal Weather Forecasts Scaled Back for Summer As we are now entering into the quiet time of the year for local weather, we will be scaling back our weather related journal entries here. We will still post technical updates related to the station hardware/software and general operations, but the regular weather related updates will be minimal through August. As is always the case during this time period, if we receive unusual weather such as a thunderstorm or other unusual weather, we will of course post an entry regarding it. 2011 Fire Season Approaches The 2011 Fire Season is fast approaching and we will soon be opening our "Fire Weather Information Page" both on our home page and elsewhere on the site. Stay tuned for the official start of the 2011 fire season in early May. [end of report] 22-Apr-2011 6:35 AM Another Chance of Rain Saturday Today will be fair with highs near normal for this time of year. Another low pressure trough is forecast to move through the area tonight and tomorrow bringing a 40% chance of rain to our area. After this latest system moves out on Sunday, we expect conditions to settle in to a more spring-like pattern with dry conditions and mostly clear skies. Upslope cloud formation in the Sierra is likely during this period, so skies could turn cloudy over the next 7-10 days. [end of report] 20-Apr-2011 8:03 AM Possible Showers Today and Tonight A weak low pressure system is quickly moving through the area today. We can expect mostly cloudy skies with occasional light to moderate rain showers. Snow level will remain well above our elevation, and what rain falls will likely only amount to a few hundredths. A tenth of an inch may be possible when all is said and done. In station related news... We have restored our NOAA Weather Radio Internet Re-Broadcast. We were out of town for a few days and during this time, the machine that runs the radio stream got hung up by a pushed software update. That in turn messed up the machine's automated duties and it never rebooted after the update was installed. All is back in working order now and we apologize to those who rely on this internet feed to receive the NOAA Weather Radio information. [end of report] 13-Apr-2011 7:24 AM Weak Trough Passing Through Today A weak low pressure system will be passing through the area this morning and through most of the day. There will not be much moisture with this system, but we may see a few scattered showers and possibly some measurable precipitation on the rain gauge. Starting tomorrow, there will be a gradual warm-up lasting through the first part of the weekend. Long range models are indicating a slight possibility of another system effecting our area on Sunday and Monday, but it is still too early to say whether or not we will see any impacts from that system. [end of report] 10-Apr-2011 9:56 AM Station Operations Update - - - Weather Software Upgrade We are now running LWC 2.1 Build 1702 So far the new install is working very smoothly with no issues to report. [end of station operations update] 09-Apr-2011 7:16 AM Seasonal Rain Total Adjustment During a routine monthly test of the stats yesterday, we discovered a +0.97 error in our seasonal rainfall total for this year. The error was likely introduced during the six day power outage last month. We have just corrected the seasonal total in software to compensate for the error and the station software is now correctly reporting 48.67 inches as the current seasonal total and now matches our station hardware rain gauge total. Still an impressive number considering that the previous seasonal total through July 1st of 2010 was 49.61 inches. We still have several months ahead that could easily bring an additional inch of rain and thus surpass the 2009/2010 seasonal total which was produced during an El Nino pattern. The fact that the 2010/2011 seasonal total was produced during a La Nina pattern makes this even more interesting. [end of report] 08-Apr-2011 8:10 AM STORM UPDATE: A stalled cell of moderate to heavy precipitation is slowly moving in to the Bass Lake area. Heavy snow has been falling at the station for the last 30 minutes ahead of the main precipitation cell. This highly unusual event may linger for another 90-120 minutes, possibly longer. This cell is one of a handful of cells over the entire state currently producing precipitation at this time. [end of update] 08-Apr-2011 7:12 AM Unstable Weather Will Continue Through Most of Friday The circulation is currently over the station rotating in a southeast to northwest direction. A respectable cell of precipitation is building to our east and moving in from the east south east producing moderate to heavy snowfall at the time of this report. Current storm total stands at: 0.66 inches. We can expect continued unsettled weather through today and into early Saturday. As the morning progresses, we might see some T-Storm activity develop in the area so be mindful of this potential. Snow levels will remain low enough for snow below 3000 feet through the next few hours and lowering again this evening. [end of report] 07-Apr-2011 8:04 AM Storm Has Arrived! A late season winter storm has arrived over the Bass Lake area this morning bringing a light rain/snow mix and a current rain total of 0.06 in. The NWS is forecasting that rain/snow will increase over the next few hours with increasing intensity towards midday, although the system has slowed somewhat from previous estimates, so these timings may be later than predicted. Snow levels are expected to drop to as low as 2500 feet by tonight and into Friday. There is also a chance that these snow levels could fall much sooner than this prediction. As a result of the variability, foothill residents are advised to remain mindful of current weather behavior and be prepared for sudden changes in rain to snow conditions. More information on this system later tonight as weather events continue to evolve. [end of report] 05-Apr-2011 7:32 AM Another Chance of Rain Starting Thursday We have another low pressure trough originating near the Gulf of Alaska that will be moving through our forecast area on Thursday. As is common with late season systems, this trough is moisture deprived which means that the amount of precipitation we can expect from this system will be on the light side. The NWS is estimating a storm total of about 0.25 in for the Southern Sierra including Bass Lake. Sky conditions will remain partly cloudy to mostly cloudy through the weekend, with a gradual clearing and return to fair conditions by early next week. Last but not least, we have a new link for everyone out there... We have just added our webcam to Webcams.Travel.com which is a popular webcam site for mobile users. Navigate your iPHONE, iPOD TOUCH. iPAD or Android device over to your favorite app store and pick up the Webcam.Travel webcam app! Then type in Bass Lake and add our camera to your favorites! [end of report] 02-Apr-2011 10:00 AM Slight Chance of Rain Today Under Cloudy Skies -Cooling Trend Today is definitely going to be a heck of a lot cooler than our record breaking heat of yesterday! The station logged a high of 82.9 F yesterday at 3:33PM which is our highest recorded temp of 2011 so far and also a record high for April 1st here at the station. A quick moving trough is now moving through the area bringing with it cloudy skies and a slight chance of some showers. Radar has been showing some fast moving cells of light showers passing through the area from the west, but nothing appears to be reaching the ground here yet. Tomorrow will see a continuation of this cooling trend as the cold front moves through around midday Sunday. After that there will be a gradual return to warmer temps as another high pressure system moves in by Tuesday. Advanced models are then indicating a decent chance of yet another low pressure trough to affect the area on Thursday through the weekend, bringing a return to cooler temps, cloudy skies and a much higher probability of rain. More sometime next week as more information becomes available. [end of report] 31-Mar-2011 2:18 PM Possible Record Highs for Friday Ahead of Cooling Trend Like today, temps are expected to soar far above seasonal norms for this time of year both today and tomorrow with highs expected to peak tomorrow before a cooling trend takes over Saturday. Because of these sudden rises in temperature and the over abundance of snow in the Sierra, there is some well founded concern for potential flooding of the lower elevations near rivers and streams. Stay tuned to our watches and warnings link for updates from the National Weather Service should rapid snow melt create flooding problems in your area. [end of report] 29-Mar-2011 1:32 PM Fair Weather to Prevail for Next 3-4 Days A high pressure ridge has settled in over the area and will provide us with some clear and DRY weather for the next few days. A low pressure trough may bring the slight threat of light showers to the Southern Sierra by the weekend but it is still too soon to be sure. Due to the highly reflective nature of snow, our UV sensor is picking up higher than normal amounts of UV and the station has been posting High UV Warnings a few hours per day. The UV reading is accurate since reflected UV radiation can do just as much harm as direct UV from the Sun, so do not discount the warning if you are spending a lot of time outside while we still have a lot of snow on the ground. Now on to precipitation... Here are the very impressive rain total stats for the month and the season: Storm Total (March 18th - 26th): 11.26 inches Monthly Total for March to Date: 13.09 inches Seasonal Total to Date: 47.55 inches Seasonal Total Last Year: 49.61 inches That last number is very interesting since the season doesn't end until July 1st, with April and May traditionally bringing us at least 2-3 inches for each month and sometimes more. We need just over an inch more rain this season to surpass 2010's season which was a full El Nino year! [end of report] 25-Mar-2011 8:31 PM MASSIVE POWER FAILURE TAKES OUT STATION AND ENTIRE BASS LAKE AREA FOR 5 DAYS - NORTHLAND CABLE INTERNET STILL DOWN Power was just restored to our area after a catastrophic 5 day outage in which all electrical and internet services were down. During this same 5 day period, the Southern Sierra experienced one of the strongest and most intense March storms in the last 50 years. Here at the station we confirmed 2.75 feet of snow accumulation in less than 36 hours! Our primary ISP (Northland Cable TV & Internet) had already failed the day before the power failure and remains down as of this report. We are running on a slower backup DSL connection which prevents us from streaming our internet re-broadcast of KIH-62 NOAA Weather Radio or run our own LIVE webcam server. The static WebCam will be back online tomorrow morning. Both streaming services however will remain offline until our primary internet service has been restored. Unfortunately, Northland Cable is not known for their speed in repairing outages, so we don't expect to see a return of our normal internet service until Monday at the earliest. Other than these few problem areas, all other station services are now back online and all weather data collected over the last 5 days is safe and complete and has just finished being uploaded from our station hardware to our weather station computer. Due to a lack of power for our rain gauge heater until now, there is still frozen snow and rain in the rain gauge that needs to be melted and recorded before we can resume normal 2 minute weather updates on our web site. Homepage updates will be handled manually for the next few hours until all backlogged rain data has been recorded and processed by the system. Meanwhile... Another storm system is headed for our area later this evening and through Saturday and we will be back with a standard weather update tomorrow morning. [end of report] 20-Mar-2011 10:17 AM Wind Advisory for Sierra Foothill Communities Will Be Allowed to Expire Says NWS Looks like Oakhurst dodged a bullet this morning when the predicted high winds from the approaching front failed to materialize. The main precipitation band arrived over the station just before dawn today and moderate to heavy snowfall has continued ever since without let up. This second system originated farther south than system #1, so snow levels are definitely higher. Temps are hovering right at the transition point between rain and snow, so a wintry mix is more likely as we approach midday. Conditions should revert back to all snow later this afternoon and into this evening as temps fall. Here are the latest NextRad radar returns for our area: Stay tuned to our web site for the latest real-time weather conditions as well as the latest NextRad radar and Satellite images. [end of report] 19-Mar-2011 11:02 PM High Wind Warning for Oakhurst and Surrounding Sierra Foothill Communities!!! Previous Storm Update: Latest NextRad Images of Approaching System and Some of Our Favorite Storm Tracking Links - Also... (We know about the problems with our NOAA Weather Radio Re-broadcast stream) The most recent upslope generated shower band is starting to exit the area which will leave us with an hour or two of dry conditions before the primary moisture bands arrive. So far we have not really seen the effects of the actual storm system, since it has yet to truly arrive over our area. I wanted to post the following still images of our NextRad radar views from both our state wide scan and a medium zoom from our wide angle precipitation map. STATEWIDE NEXTRAD: WIDE ANGLE PRECIPITATION MAP: (Oakhurst/Bass Lake at top of frame slightly right of center) ACCUWEATHER'S SAT IMAGE WITH PRECIPITATION RADAR: (Great view of the Low Pressure Center just off SF Coast!) I have also been meaning to provide you, our dedicated reader with some of our favorite storm tracking links. A few of these are available on our station's web site, but a couple of these are not. Enjoy the links and the storm storm! But brace yourself for some pretty heavy weather late tonight and through Sunday morning! More comments about the storm and its effects on the area tomorrow! Wide Angle Precipiation Map Page NextRad Full State View Here is another one of our "GO-TO" animated sat images great for storm tracking! NOAA IR Satellite Image (Eastern Pacific - Animated) I also like this one from Accuweather: Animated California Sat Image with Precipitation Radar from AccuWeather We also wanted to report that our ISP, "Northland Cable TV Internet" has been experiencing some issues tonight which are primarily effecting our ability to stream our NOAA Weather Radio Broadcast from Hanford. The problems are all upstream of our station and there is really nothing we can do about it on our end. We just hope that whatever is causing the massive reduction in upload bandwidth gets resolved before Monday. Seems that Northland always has problems during weather events and just as Murphy's Law dictates... these problems invariably seem to happen at 1AM or on the weekends when there is no one at Northland we can talk to about resolving the problem! :o( [end of report] 19-Mar-2011 12:22 PM UPDATE: 8:45PM The first moisture bands from the next system are just now moving onto the coast and should arrive over our area within the next 3-4 hours. We are already starting to see some upslope generated showers around the area now and this will likely increase ahead of the main system. The latest IR Sat image tells the tale nicely: With a current temp of 37.9 and falling, it would be a safe bet to assume that any moisture we see over the station tonight will fall as snow. [end of update] Previous report... 7 inches of snow on the ground after last night's snow event! Snow levels dropped considerably faster than predicted yesterday resulting in a decent snow event which started just after 9:30PM. Our storm total so far stands at 0.79 in. The forecast for today calls for gradual development of upslope conditions with precipitation returning to the Bass Lake area later this afternoon and into this evening. The next system is forecast to pack a solid punch both with advanced high winds ahead of the front, followed by periods of heavy rain/snow. More later as the next system arrives. [end of report] 18-Mar-2011 11:35 PM STORM UPDATE - SNOW at BASS LAKE! We saw a transition over to snow tonight just after 9PM with moderate to heavy snowfall ever since. We currently have over 6 inches on the ground. Expect the current snowfall to lighten and end within the next few hours followed by a brief break in precipitation as the next system approaches the area. The next wave of precipitation will likely move in during the early morning hours of Saturday. The current temperature is hovering right around the freezing mark, so be prepared for very slick roads and walkways come morning. We will post a snow total update before noon on Saturday. [end of update] 18-Mar-2011 5:20 PM Rain Band from System #1 Almost Here! As you can see from this latest radar return, we are within an hour or two of seeing the first band of moderate to heavy rain arrive over the station and the Bass Lake area. We can expect the rain to continue through tonight and well into tomorrow. The second system that we mentioned in our last report is still looking to be larger and more moisture laden than this first one, so after a brief break between systems on Saturday night this wet pattern will continue into early next week. The latest model runs are indicating yet another system could impact our area by Wednesday and Thursday. We will be back again later this evening with some early rainfall totals. [end of report] 17-Mar-2011 11:56 AM Break in the Action Today - Next Storm Systems on Track for Friday and Through the Weekend! Yesterday's system cleared the area a lot faster than originally forecast, but we still managed to pick up 0.96 inches of rain when all was said and done. The next low pressure system is in the process of moving south from the Gulf of Alaska and should arrive in our area around mid-day Friday bringing rain and higher elevation snow to the Southern Sierra. This system is going to be a lot colder than the last few systems we have seen due in large part to the fact that it has formed far to the north near the pole. There is a second system forming behind this one which will keep us in rain through Monday and possibly longer. Here is the latest Satellite image showing the approaching system gaining strength as it moves down the coast. Snow levels from this approaching system may drop as low as 3500 feet during the early morning hours of Saturday, so be prepared for some accumulation in the Bass Lake area by Saturday morning. Quantitative precipitation amounts remain uncertain at this time, but we expect to see at least 1.00 inch of precipitation in our area from this system. Chances are good that we will see considerably more precipitation than that by the time the second system exits the area on Monday. The latest models are indicating that this wet pattern may continue beyond Monday, so stay tuned for the possibility of additional systems through next week. Stay tuned to our web site for the latest information on these approaching systems. [end of report] 16-Mar-2011 9:23 AM Moderate Rain Arrives! Measurable rain arrived over the area just after 3AM this morning and has been rather constant ever since. Rain rates of over 1.60 in/h have been recorded over the last two hours! We can expect this precipitation to continue to move through the area through most of today, with rain heavy at times. Isolated T-Storms are also possible later today as the more unstable portions of the front move through. There is still a predicted break in the action tomorrow before another more intense storm system arrives over the area on Friday and lingers through the weekend. [end of report] 14-Mar-2011 10:50 PM Where She Stops... NO BODY KNOWS! The current trends are all over the place regarding when and where the next storm system is going to impact the Bass Lake area. The previous model runs that indicated moderate precipitation for the area Sunday night and Monday morning were far too optimistic, since we only saw trace amounts within 15 miles of the station including Yosemite Valley. The latest runs from the NWS are indicating the next system to arrive during the day Tuesday. By Tuesday evening we should be seeing some moderate, "measurable" precipitation at the station. The latest Sat images show a somewhat well developed but weakening low pressure spiral rotating counter-clockwise just off the Central California coast and moving east south east. Unfortunately for those who want to know NOW... We will all just have to wait and see what develops over the next 24-48 hours since confidence in the models is very low through this entire week. One aspect which continues looking pretty solid, is our original prediction made late last week of a stronger and more significant system arriving over the area on Sunday. That system has the potential to deliver some considerable rain and higher elevation snow to the area from late Saturday night into the early part of next week. Model runs that include the weekend into early next week are in much better agreement over the arrival of this more intense storm system. Kind of odd I know, but this entire season has been more than a wee bit challenging to predict. The take-away from all of this should be that we are likely to see some precipitation within the next 3-5 days with the best chances occurring towards the end of the work week, through the weekend and into the early part of next week. The Journal will be updated as soon as we see some major changes to the model runs, or if we start seeing some impacts from the weather systems themselves. [end of report] 11-Mar-2011 10:03 PM Storm Track Shift/Pattern Change Late Next Week You may have noticed a lot more clouds around the Bass Lake area today than the last several days. The culprit was a fast moving but weak low pressure system passing through the Pacific Northwest. While there was never any real chance for rain in our area from this system, it did manage to track further south than anyone had expected, thus giving us a mostly cloudy day today with much cooler temps than yesterday. As we close out the week, the most recent long range models are advertising the potential for a southerly shift in the Jetstream beginning as early as Tuesday and by Friday the potential for a direct hit from one of the just now forming pacific storm systems. While it is still far too early to predict for certain that we will see the return of a wet pattern by this time next week, all the ingredients appear to be in place for just such a pattern shift. We will update the journal with more details by the middle of next week. In the meantime, we can expect the same type of weather pattern we have been seeing during the bulk of this week. Mostly clear skies with the potential for upslope generated overcast by mid-day, with partial clearing by dusk. Temps are expected to remain normal to slightly above normal for this time of year. Lastly... Don't forget to set your clocks AHEAD ONE HOUR on Sunday morning when Daylight Savings Time officially begins. [end of report] Operator's note: Our hopes and prayers go out to all the people of Japan on this terrible day of destruction. 08-Mar-2011 8:58 AM Fair Weather for the Next 7-10 Days High pressure is building over the area and will remain in place for the remainder of the week. There is a possibility of another system moving in from the north by Sunday, but it is too early to say for sure right now. Temps should be at or slightly above average during this warming period. [end of report] 06-Mar-2011 7:59 AM Scattered Showers Today * Rain Tonight into Monday The first of two relatively weak frontal systems is currently passing through our area. Rain totals have been very light so far, and based on sat imagery, we don't expect this to change until the second system arrives later today. System number two was originally forecast to provide heavier amounts of precipitation and lowering snow levels which is looking to be a bit optimistic at this point in time. While we will see a lowering of temps and snow levels with the second system, quantitative precipitation amounts measured by Satellite shows much less moisture potential than predicted. You can see from this latest Pacific Sat Image that storm #1 is already breaking up and storm #2 is less organized than originally predicted. We can now expect to see somewhere between 0.50 and 0.75 inches of rainfall total from both systems which will clear the area by Tuesday morning. After the systems have passed, we can expect clearing and fair weather through Thursday before another weak system arrives from the Pacific. This third system will be tracking mainly north of our area, so we expect only a few isolated showers and cloudy skies later in the week. In station news... We have just installed LWC 2.1 version R11 build 1500. This should be the last development build of our weather station software before the official public release of LWC 2.1. [end of report] 04-Mar-2011 12:38 PM Fair Weather Through Saturday - Rain and Higher Elevation Snow by Sunday Morning A weak high pressure bubble is currently sitting just off the Central California coast and will bring us fair and pleasant weather through Saturday afternoon. Temps are edging slightly above normal for early March and should continue to do so until the first of two low pressure systems arrives over our area beginning late Saturday night with the second colder system arriving Sunday evening and lingering through Monday night. Although current model runs do not indicate much more than light precipitation from this first approaching system, the air will remain unstable during this period and upslope generated precipitation could combine with this light rain to produce moderate to heavy showers for the west facing slopes of the Southern Sierra. Snow levels will lower as the second system arrives, with snow levels down to as low as 3500 feet by late Sunday night into Monday morning. We will update the journal with additional details on snow levels and quantitative precipitation for both of these back to back systems as we get closer to the first event. [end of report] 02-Mar-2011 7:39 AM Showery Pattern Through Tomorrow Night The storm has arrived, but we are seeing a lot more scattered precipitation than was originally predicted. Because the rain bands are not well organized, we will see a more showery pattern with on and off rain rather than a steady stream of precipitation. There could be some additional upslope generated precipitation caused by convection over the west facing slopes of the Sierra. We can expect scattered showers which can be heavy at times to move through the area through tomorrow. Periods of dry weather will be punctuated with these fast moving cells of precipitation. [end of report] 28-Feb-2011 6:01 AM Two Storm Systems in the Next 7 Days! The latest model runs are suggesting a respectable storm system will be arriving over the Bass Lake area late Tuesday night and lasting through Thursday morning. This system will be much warmer than the previous system we saw last week. Current precipitation forecasts call for between 1.00 and 1.50 inches of rain for our area and possibly more. Snow levels will remain above 5000 feet during this event, although it is always possible that the levels could lower during the overnight hours of Wednesday into Thursday. This system exits the area Thursday afternoon/evening with another break in the action for the remainder of the week. Another more powerful system is then predicted to arrive over the area on Sunday. The precipitation forecasts for this second system packs much higher moisture levels and rain totals of between 2-5 inches are being suggested for the south and west facing slopes of the Southern Sierra, which would include the Bass Lake area. Today will be clear and slightly warmer than yesterday. Tuesday will start out clear, but we will see increasing clouds throughout the day and a chance of rain by late Tuesday night. More on both of these systems as we get closer to the event. [end of report] 26-Feb-2011 8:38 AM Storm Moving Out This Morning - Possible T-Storms Later As the low pressure system exits our area today, we can expect to see increasing upslope generated clouds that could actually morph into some isolated T-Storms later this afternoon. We will see a break in the wet pattern through Tuesday day, followed by another pacific storm system prognosticated to arrive late Tuesday night and stick around until Thursday. This system will be much warmer than this last one since it is coming in from the west and not from the extreme northern latitudes. Storm Total and Seasonal Rainfall Numbers: The departing system provided us with an impressive 2.26 inches of snow melt in the rain gauge which brings our Feb. 2011 total to 7.51 inches for the month. That is still about 2.00 inches shy of what a normal February would deliver in precipitation, so we are still not quite at normal for the season yet. A few storms in March and April would likely put us over the top and give us a normal rainfall season for 2010/2011 despite all the strange weather behaviors we have observed over the last 9 months. [end of report] 25-Feb-2011 4:46 AM Snow Arrived on Schedule - Continuing Through Saturday Morning We have seen about 6 inches of accumulation here at the station since the snow began falling just before 12:30AM this morning. Radar returns are showing a moderate precipitation mass centered over the Bay Area which is currently remaining somewhat stationary. Upslope precipitation in the form of snow is expected to remain in place for the Bass Lake area through most of today and into tomorrow morning. Snow levels will continue to drop over the course of the day, so those in the lower foothill elevations will likely see a changeover to snow later today. Still not sure how much total precipitation we will receive from this system due to the current stalling behavior we are seeing with the south east movement of the cold core. More as the situation develops. [end of report] 23-Feb-2011 12:13 PM Storm Arrives Tomorrow Night - LIVE WebCam Back Online! The next low pressure system is moving down from the BC Coast and should begin to effect our local weather beginning mid-day tomorrow. This system is going to be VERY cold, so there is a very good chance that we could see snow levels at some of their lowest in decades! Not sure at this point how much precipitation we will see from this next system, but current models are indicating a respectable amount. We will be updating the Journal again tomorrow night as soon as we have the latest model run. In station news... We have resolved the primary bandwidth issues that had been preventing us from streaming the LIVE webcam video to the web. The LIVE webcam feed is now back online, but is using a different IP address than before, so be sure to update your bookmarks with the new URL listed below. D2149 LIVE WebCam Video Feed [end of report] 22-Feb-2011 2:35 PM Station Maintenance Report - LWC R10 Public Release - Build 1430 Installed - LIVE WEBCAM SERVER DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE New and final version of LWC2-R10 is running well and all weather sensor hardware and data systems are operating within normal parameters. Due to problems with our new DSL service, the LIVE webcam has been taken offline to reduce upload bandwidth. Once the problems have been resolved, we will be able to restart the LIVE webcam server. The webcam itself is still fully operational and continues to function as a time-lapse and still image camera for all our other web pages. Only thing we can't do is stream the live webcam video feed right now. [end of maintenance report] 21-Feb-2011 8:42 AM Clear to Partly Cloudy Weather Through Wednesday Night A ridge has built back into the area overnight and will keep the area clear to partly cloudy for the next few days. Upslope clouds are likely to develop around the Bass Lake area. Another low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska will likely move south and into our forecast area beginning Thursday. A good chance of snow for Thursday, Friday and a portion of Saturday. Exact amounts and timing can not be determined this far out. We will post another update as this next system gets closer. Our storm total from the last system was an impressive 5.25 inches which is also our current monthly total for February. This total brings us to just over 50% of normal for the month, so much more rain is needed for a normal Feb. as well as a more normal seasonal rainfall total for this point in the season. [end of report] 18-Feb-2011 6:35 PM Another Round of Rain/Snow Tonight! The second in a series winter storms is once again on the move after a nearly day long pause in its east by northeast progression from the Pacific. As a result, the rain and snow we had been expecting today, are just now arriving over the Bass Lake area. Heavy rain along with lightning and thunder are possible with these unstable bands of precipitation. Here is the latest statewide radar showing the location of Bass Lake (Red Arrow) and the direction the rain bands are traveling. Notice the size of the bands to the southwest of our area. These will likely arrive in our area by midnight. Expect rain/snow throughout the night tonight and into Saturday morning. Precipitation will start to diminish around noon Saturday with a gradual clearing trend on Sunday. Temps will be below normal however, so it will be sunny and COLD. [end of report] 18-Feb-2011 7:43 AM Snow on the Ground and More on the Way! We've got about 6.5 inches on the ground as of this report with currently no precipitation. 0.50 inches of snow melt in the bucket for today so far and a current monthly total of: 2.98 inches. The current lull in the action will be short lived as there is another large cell of precipitation moving our way from the coast. We can expect continuing snow showers with periods of heavy snow through this afternoon. There will be a gradual clearing trend by Saturday night, with another storm moving into the area by the middle of next week. [end of report] 16-Feb-2011 6:38 PM Very Respectable System! Now a Little Break Before Round # 2! The station has logged 1.78 inches of rain since 2:30AM today. The main part of the system departed many hours ago. Now we have unstable air behind the cold front moving through which may bring a few isolated showers and snow to the area. Thursday is expected to be partly cloudy for the first half of the day, but later in the afternoon the winds will begin to pick up as the second major storm system arrives over the Central California area and the Southern Sierra. Snow levels will be lower with this next system that they were today. That means that everyone that saw snow today, will see more of it Thursday night through Saturday. [end of report] 16-Feb-2011 9:16 AM Storm Update! SNOW! We have just recently seen a full transition to snow as the current temp sits at 34.3 degrees F. The snowfall rate is currently moderate to heavy with well formed flakes and accumulation on plants and vehicles. Still not sticking on cement and asphalt surfaces, but expect that soon as temps continue to fall rapidly as the cold front approaches. [end of update] 16-Feb-2011 7:32 AM A Wild Ride This AM as Storm #1 Arrives with a Roar! Anyone around here looking out their windows this morning knows that the rain is back! System #1 arrived a bit later to the area than we had expected yesterday, but it finally did arrive with the first bucket tip on the rain gauge coming in just after 2:30AM today. The rain has since been moderate to heavy with the additional dynamic of gusty winds. Speeds of over 18mph were recorded by the station's Anemometer as recently as a few minutes ago. We are also seeing VERY low barometric pressure readings right now which indicate a lot of instability in this system. T-Storms would not be out of the question later today as the atmosphere heats up. Temps are currently in the low 40s, so not much chance of snow at this time, although Hanford is suggesting a lowering of the snow level later today. Here is the latest close_up radar off our home page: As pictured above... a respectable rain band moving in from the South West is moving parallel to our area and has the potential to intensify the rain rates. Additional bands and cells are being detected off the coast which means that we will see a prolonged rain event well into Thursday. We are also starting to hear some thunder to our South and getting closer to the station. [end of report] 15-Feb-2011 10:10 AM Significant Winter Storm Arrives Tonight and Lingers Through Wednesday Night The various weather models have all come into a reasonable agreement on the disposition of the next major winter storm in the Pacific that will "thankfully" bless the Central California area with some desperately needed rain and snow! Right now, the NWS is predicting 2-3 feet of snow for the Sierra above 7,000 feet, 1-2 feet above 5,000 feet and 6-12 inches at around 4,000 feet. The latter amount most often includes the Bass Lake area. Oakhurst and other footfhill communities can expect accumulations of between 1-3 inches during the same period. So... As Tuesday progresses, we will see increasing clouds moving in from the south west, and by this evening we should see a total overcast with increasing chances of rain/snow after around 5PM. Timing is still somewhat hard to gauge, so we could see rain/snow arrive earlier than predicted or several hours later. The take-away from all this is that we will see some significant precipitation from this approaching system with rain/snow heavy at times tonight and through much of Wednesday. The major portion of this system is expected to be clearing the area by Wednesday night, with a short break in the action for Thursday day. Another system within this same storm track is expected to arrive over the area sometime between Thursday night and Friday morning. Still too early to say how much additional precipitation we will see from this latter week system, but we will of course post another update about that as we get closer. Stay tuned to the station web site for the latest "real-time" precipitation reports and totals as the storm systems arrive over the Bass Lake area. We will post additional storm updates as conditions warrant during this entire week of unsettled weather. [end of report] 14-Feb-2011 8:07 AM Cloudy with a Few Scattered Showers Today The low pressure systems have begun to arrive off the coast, but the first few are not going to pose any real precipitation potential for our area. Expect only a very slight chance of scattered showers today through Tuesday. You can see from the latest Pacific Sat image, that the current rotation does not have much in the way of moisture associated with it. Reasonably well organized, but very dry as typical Pacific systems go. The more intense systems will begin to arrive over our area on Tuesday night and through all of Wednesday. From Wednesday through Friday we can expect to see the most winter storm action and the highest rainfall totals. Based on current models, the snow level will probably fall low enough for a good portion of the Wednesday system's precipitation to arrive in the form of snow for Bass Lake. This can obviously go either way since we are still in a strong La Nina pattern, but the chances for a low snow level all the way down to Oakhurst looks pretty good right now for Wed. and Thur.. More as the systems develop. [end of report] 12-Feb-2011 9:53 AM The Rain is Coming! Just a Few More Days of the Multi-week Monotonous High Pressure Bubble. Models are all starting to come into agreement now regarding the approaching pattern change for our area! The current Sat image is worth a thousand words. The arrows we have added to the image point to the first in a series of systems coming down from the Gulf of Alaska and the Aleutian Islands. The current model runs are now being advertised on all of the local and regional weather forecasts which call for the arrival of the first wave on the sat image above arriving on Monday evening and a steady train of systems continuing through the end of the week. It is looking like we will probably see a wet pattern continuing through Sunday of next week, followed by a brief lull and then what appears to be another wave of precipitation. This is excellent news for anyone that knows what we need to receive in precipitation between now and the end of the wet season around April 1st. More as the approaching low pressure trough and chain of storm systems arrives in the next few days. [end of report] 11-Feb-2011 10:14 AM More Info on Impending Pattern Change As we get closer to the end of the week, the models are coming into better and better agreement that the hoped for pattern change will indeed take place early next week. This from the latest report from the NWS / Hanford: ================= "A significant change in the weather pattern will occur early next week as a trough drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and takes up residence along the West Coast for the week. Impulses rotating through the trough will bring periods of precipitation beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through at least Friday. The models continue to have some timing and strength differences with the incoming shortwave troughs but they generally bring the colder air in by Wednesday night...lowering snow levels to around 3000 feet in the northern portions of the Sierra zones and around 4500 feet in the mountains of Kern County. Afternoon highs will be a few to several degrees above climatology through Monday...then dropping below seasonal averages through the end of the week. " ================== Always nice to be ahead of the curve/general consensus on a major call like this, and be proven right! ;o) We will update the Journal as soon as conditions warrant. [end of report] 10-Feb-2011 8:49 AM Long Awaited Pattern Change All But Certain Next Week! The various weather models have started to come into better agreement that the long awaited pattern change we eluded to earlier in the week will indeed materialize! Based on all current data, it looks like things will start to change beginning late Monday afternoon and through Monday night. By Tuesday afternoon we should be seeing mostly cloudy conditions with increasing chances of precipitation as the day progresses. By Tuesday night, we should be getting some measurable rainfall at the station. The first storm is expected to linger until Wednesday or Thursday. The big question is whether or not this new low pressure / trough pattern will be able to maintain itself over time so that California can benefit from the very energetic storm track we have been denied since the 2nd day of January. Anyone watching the news is well aware of the kind of winter the rest of the country has been having this year. All but a few of those storms came anywhere near California, and as a result, we are in dire need of the return to a wet pattern. Lets keep our fingers crossed that the model runs continue to advertise this change and that it does actually take place early next week. In station related news... We are now running LWC 2.1 R10 Build 1417 which fixes a few backend issues discovered in 1416. So far the new build is running great and free of the previous issues. [end of report] 08-Feb-2011 10:03 AM LWC 2.1 R10 build 1416 Installed The previous beta had a few issues with backend routines which have been fixed in this release. We will run this on an extended schedule without automated refresh to test stability. [end of report] 07-Feb-2011 8:18 AM Cautious Optimism Regarding Possible Pattern Change! The NWS models are starting to advertise more and more probability of a pattern shift around the middle of the month. Accuweather is already indicating a period of rain from the 13th through the 17th, but the NWS in Hanford has not yet made any predictions. As we head through what will likely become the driest February in 125 years of record keeping, any precipitation we can get right now is vital if we are to avoid one of the driest if not THE driest winters on record. We will post another update just as soon as we start seeing more consensus either way from future model runs and actual precipitation probability forecasts from the crew down at Hanford. [end of report] 04-Feb-2011 6:24 PM New Version of our Weather Software with Cool New Features! We are now running LWC 2.1 R10 Build 1402. This new version brings a lot of neat new features to our web site as well as some nice backend stuff that will make LWC even more reliable than it already is! Here is a quick rundown of what you will see added to our home page: 1) Links in the Journal section, like this: D2149 Home Page Plus Inline graphics like this: This will help us communicate important issues related to a current storm including links to NWS warnings along wtth images of current satellite and radar images. 2) New Storm Total Info on Home page, along with the Start date of a current storm. These stats will show up once measurable rain has been reported by the station and will remain visible as long as the rain continues. This will allow all of our weather bugs to keep an eye on the latest storm and track its total rainfall amounts! (Now all we need is a return of winter!) 3) Last day of rainfall with date and total. This unfortunately is going to be the most visible new bit of info on the home page, showing the last day we received any measurable rain at the station and how much we received total. This info will be visible whenever there is no precipitation currently being recorded at the station. (which is constantly at the moment!) We will be rolling out a few more additional features contained in R10 over the next week or two. In the meantime, we are starting to hear rumblings that a pattern change might be in the offing for our area around the middle of the month! Still too early for any real details, but there are some encouraging signs that the infernal high pressure ridge might finally be breaking down and getting the heck out of here! Stay tuned for more on that! [end of report] 31-Jan-2011, 08:55 Back to the Ridge... and DRY, DRY Weather. Another ridge of high pressure will build back into the area today and remain in place for at least the next 10 days. With February traditionally being our wettest month of the year, this re-emerging dry pattern is cause for concern, since our above average snow pack and rainfall totals will not last if high pressure and a northerly deflection of the winter storm track continues to dominate as it did through most of January. We can just keep our fingers crossed that a stronger pattern shift similar to what we saw on Sunday, only much larger takes hold before it is too late. April 1st is generally considered to be the end of the wet season for the Southern Sierra. [end of update] 30-Jan-2011, 12:28 STORM UPDATE: An impressive band of precipitation is now moving through the Bass Lake area bringing some VERY heavy snow to the station and the start of some measurable accumulation on the ground. The current temperature is once again down to 35 F from the pervious high of 38.2 F just after 11AM. The storm total now stands at 0.55 inches with an updated monthly total of 2.62 inches. We expect this pattern of rain bands followed by a few hours of lull, followed by another band, to continue through the day with a gradual tapering off by dusk. [end of update] 30-Jan-2011, 07:46 Very Welcome Rain and Snow Arrives Over the Station! We are pleased to report that although this low pressure system that is currently moving through our area is far from the usual strength we expect this time of year, it has managed to deliver some respectable precipitation this morning. We are observing moderate snowfall at the time of this report with a current temperature of 35 degrees F. Precipitation began just before 4:30AM this morning in the form of a rain/snow mix which persisted until 7:30AM. A complete transition over to snow then began and we are starting see see some accumulation on cars and other metal objects. Our current storm total stands at 0.32 inches with a current rain rate of 0.09 in/h. Rates have been as high as 0.25 in/h during the mix. Radar shows the current rain band about to clear the area, with additional smaller bands moving in off the coast and expected to bring additional light to moderate precipitation until this evening. The system is then expected to move out of the area with a return to mostly clear skies for Monday and a gradual rebuilding of the high pressure bubble we have been enduring these many dry weeks. Our current rainfall total for January 2010 stands at: 2.39 inches [end of report] 28-Jan-2011, 14:00 Brief Pattern Change for Saturday Night and Sunday The weather gods have decided to throw us a few crumbs in the way of some precipitation for this weekend. A low pressure trough will be descending out of the Gulf of Alaska with the southern tail of this system brushing the Central California area on Saturday night through Sunday night. Quantitative precipitation amounts for the Bass Lake area do not look very impressive at this point, but considering that we haven't seen a drop of rain since the 2nd, we will take whatever we can get! Snow levels are expected to stay above 4500 feet, but there could possibly be a lowering of that level to our elevation early Sunday morning depending on overall temps. Unfortunately, this storm system will not linger and is forecast to clear the area by Monday morning followed by a return to the high pressure ridging that we have been stuck with these many unseasonably warm and dry weeks. Nothing interesting in current model runs beyond this one isolated system well into the end of next week. [end of report] 22-Jan-2011, 11:46 Warm and Dry Pattern to Continue Indefinitely The strong La Nina pattern has certainly been making its presence known this month. Extended forecasts continue to paint the same unchanging weather picture well into February. The Rainfall total for the season to date continues to remain above normal, thanks to all of the above normal rainfall we received at the end of 2010. However, if this dry pattern continues past the first 7 days of February, then we will begin to enter a deficit for the 2010/2011 rainy season. The warm temperatures will also eventually begin to effect the Sierra snowpack with earlier than normal melting. So...We can expect the high pressure to continue for the foreseeable future with above normal temperatures and well below normal precipitation. Our current rainfall total for January stands at 2.06 inches which was all recorded the first two days of the month. With no rain expected through the 31st, this will make January 2011 the driest January on record for the region. The records go back to the late 1800s. [end of report] 15-Jan-2011, 10:46 La Nina Has Officially Arrived! Although all the usual indicators had been in place since mid-June, for some yet to be explained reason, it took until the end of the first week of January before the signature effects of El Nino's polar opposite began to take hold and started changing our normal winter weather pattern into a much warmer and dryer one. All of the hallmarks of La Nina are now revealing themselves on the west coast of the USA. The typical La Nina pattern brings about a radical, extreme northern shift in the jet stream and along with it, the path of winter storm systems moving in from the Pacific. Storm systems that would normally move into the central and southern California regions are shifted north into the Pacific Northwest, while points south of the Oregon border receive the rain shadow of all of these passing systems resulting in above normal temperatures and little to no precipitation. You can click on the WARNINGS link above to view the current IR Satellite image which currently shows a classic example of this northern shift in the storm track. The long range forecasts do not look good in terms of additional rainfall events for the remainder of the winter 2011 season for California. While we can expect to see a few wetter patterns briefly emerge between now and Spring of 2011, the overall expectation based on previous La Nina events is that from this point forward, our precipitation totals for the remaining months of the season will be far below normal, and warming temps will eventually impact the Sierra snow pack ahead of the normal Spring melt. It is VERY fortunate for Central California that we saw such ample rainfall ahead of this La Nina take-over which will help to temper what would have normally been a significant drought inducing pattern shift. This will likely be our last weather related update for the foreseeable future because the current weather pattern is expected to continue unchanged well into the end of this month and likely into February. [end of report] 13-Jan-2011, 12:17 Mostly Cloudy Today as System Passes to Our North / Fair Rest of Week The low pressure system that had originally been forecast for our area today is passing far to the north but will be providing clouds over the area from the edge of the front. It is expected to move through by tomorrow and this will allow the high pressure ridge to clear us out again with fair skies. There is a very good likelihood of dense fog in the lowlands through the weekend and into next week, but the Bass Lake area will see clear skies during this period. Extended forecast models are showing nothing in the way of storm systems for our area well into the 10 day runs, so it is looking pretty obvious at this point that the La Nina weather pattern has taken a firm hold of the jet stream and along with it, the winter storm track. February is traditionally the wettest month for our area, so it will be interesting to see what kind of storm activity we see come next month. It could very well turn out to be one of the driest Februarys on record. Based on current predictions and unless we see a change to a wetter pattern soon, January 2011 will go down in the record books as one of the driest in over a decade. [end of report] 12-Jan-2011, 17:24 Power Outage Takes Down Bass Lake and Station Uploads Due to some damaged equipment near the dam, we lost power just after 10:40AM this morning and power remained off for the entire Bass Lake area until just after 5PM. Although the station has battery backup, our cable internet service relies on power from the grid, so the station was unable to update any online sources until the main power came back on. Downtime time was just over 6 hours. No weather data was lost and all online sources have now been updated with data recorded during the outage. [end of report] 12-Jan-2011, 08:09 Fair/Dry Weather Dominates Through Middle of Next Week The station logged only 0.01 inches of precipitation all day yesterday from what proved to be an even weaker low pressure system than originally predicted. High pressure ridging is back once again and will dominate our local conditions for at least the next 5 days, with temps averaging a bit higher than seasonal norms. The storm track is well to our north and will remain so during this period. Fog will once again become a major issue in the lower elevations and in the SJ Valley. Long range forecasts see little change in this dry pattern, although there are a few indications that we may see another weak system brush the northern edge of the forecast area around the middle of next week. [end of report] 10-Jan-2011, 21:16 Cloudy with Light Showers Possible Tuesday thru Wednesday Morning The approaching system is not expected to provide us much in terms of rainfall totals. Temps are expected to moderate a bit towards a warmer trend, so the Bass Lake area will likely see rain and possibly a rain/snow mix as opposed to snow. Still, there is always the chance that the current cold temps will stick around long enough ahead of the front to allow for flurries Tuesday afternoon. In addition, the second system that was originally forecast to arrive on Thursday is no longer in the forecast. Instead we will see another high pressure ridge move into the area behind the Tuesday/Wednesday weak frontal system. Expect the ridge to remain in place from Thursday and remaining in place through the weekend. The pattern will be similar to the last 7 days with mostly clear and sunny conditions with highs in the upper 50s and lows in the 20s to low 30s. Long range models hint at the slight possibility of another weak low pressure system arriving over the forecast area by this time next week, but for now, it is too early to say whether or not a true pattern shift will take place at that time. La Nina May Be Starting to Moderate Storm Activity We are starting to see signs that the strong La Nina weather pattern that has been in place for the past six months is finally beginning to produce the predicted effect on our winter storm activity. A typical La Nina tends to force the jet stream far to our north and leave California with a much dryer winter weather pattern than normal. Daytime high temps may start to average about 5 degrees above normal for the given time of the year as well. The proof will come next month, as February is traditionally the wettest month of the season for the Southern Sierra. Fortunately, our seasonal precipitation totals and Sierra snowpack are both so healthy and so far above normal that we will be able to weather an extended dry spell much better than a typical La Nina winter. Still... For those who look forward to our winter storm season, the best of the season may already be behind us. :o( As always with the approach of any new weather system, be sure to click on our "Watches - Warnings - Links" button above for the latest regional weather news and advisories from The National Weather Service. You can also track the approaching storm using the IR Satellite imagery provided on that same page. We will update again within the next 24-48 hours with any precipitation totals we receive from this next storm. [end of report] 09-Jan-2011, 18:07 A Pattern Change in the Offing? The NWS is now predicting the possibility of some light rain/snow for the Bass Lake area on Tuesday as a shortwave trough moves in from the north. We will once again be on the edge of the snowline, so the precipitation could go either way in terms of rain or snow. A rain/snow mix is also a very likely possibility. The system will move through by mid-day Wednesday and then another system may be moving in on Thursday. Quantitative precipitation estimates remain on the light side for both systems, but the possibility for upslope induced heavier precipitation is always there when forecasting for the Sierra. We will update the journal again on Monday night or Tuesday morning as we learn more about the approaching systems and the potential for measurable precipitation from them. [end of report] 06-Jan-2011, 19:50 Fair and Dry Pattern Remains Through At Least Next Week If you are a fan of dynamic weather like we have seen in recent weeks, you are going to be pretty bored for the next 7-10 days. The current high pressure system that has brought us our fair and dry weather lately is expected to remain in place for at least another full week. Expect highs to remain in the mid to upper 50s with overnight lows in the high 20s to low 30s. Fog will remain a factor for lower elevations and the SJ Valley. There may be a few partly cloudy days coming up as some low pressure systems to our north brush the northern edges of our forecast area, but for the most part, what we have been seeing all this week will continue to dominate the Bass Lake area weather for the foreseeable future. This is more in keeping with the La Nina weather pattern that generally brings warmer and dryer weather during the winter months than normal. Fortunately this time around, we have had so much rain and snow that if we didn't get another drop of rain through April 1st, we would still pull out a normal seasonal total! This will probably be our last Journal update for a while since there won't be any noteworthy weather related information to write about. ;) As soon as we see signs of a pattern change back towards some wet and unsettled action, we will of course let everyone know. [end of report] 03-Jan-2011, 10:16 Gradual Clearing Today - Fair Weather Rest of the Week The low pressure system which has been spinning around over the area will be lowly exiting the area to the east throughout today. There is still a slight chance of some upslope generated rain and snow showers, but otherwise expect a gradual clearing and then mostly sunny conditions for Tuesday and the rest of this week. Models are still in disagreement as to when the next system will arrive. Accuweather is predicting another system to come through on Saturday, while the NWS is keeping the fair to partly cloudy conditions through the weekend. Here are some totals: Rainfall Total Yesterday: 1.67 inches Storm Total: 2.04 inches For the Month: 2.04 inches For the Season: 26.22 inches We will post another update later this week regarding the weather for the weekend. [end of report] 02-Jan-2011, 14:24 STORM UPDATE: 3:00 p.m. The temp has fallen to 34.3 degrees and the moderate to heavy snow has begun to stick. So far we have about 1/2 of an inch of accumulation on the ground. STORM UPDATE: 2:30 p.m. Snow has begun falling at the station although temps are far above what we normally see for snow to begin falling. The current temp is 37.8 whereas yesterday we were getting rain at 34 degrees! Very odd transitional temp swings to be sure. At this temperature, we won't be seeing any accumulation from what is currently a very heavy snowfall. Our current rainfall total is: 1.49 inches Storm total: 1.85 inches [end of update] 02-Jan-2011, 09:57 Steady Rain with More Expected Throughout the Day Moderate to heavy rain arrived over the station just before midnight last night and has continued through the morning. The station has logged 1.24 inches since midnight with rain rates averaging around 0.10 in/h. The NWS has issued several watches and warnings. Please check the link above for details. It appears that the precipitation is moderating right at the station's location with heavier rain just to the south and west of our location and lighter amounts to our north and east. Stations at higher elevations such as Fish Camp have reported far lower rain totals so far today. Temps continue to hover in the mid to upper 30s, so there has obviously been no chance for any snow with only a few periods of a rain/snow mix. The NWS is calling for this pattern to continue for our area through the day today with a gradual tapering off of the precipitation late tonight and into Monday. Current storm total: 1.60 inches In station maintenance news... We installed an intermediate update to our Weather Center software. The latest version is now V2.1 R9 build 953. [end of report] 01-Jan-2011, 21:37 Moderate to Heavy Rain/Snow Heading In! As of this report, there is a very large band of precipitation moving in from the coast. Current radar is showing the level of rain rate to be relatively heavy. Check out the "Watches" page linked above for the latest IR Sat image. This precipitation should begin arriving over our area within the next 2 hours or less. The problematic aspect with this particular storm is the transitional temp between rain and snow. Our automated rain/snow alerts have been getting fooled by this system all day today since we have been seeing rain with temps well within the range that would normally be delivering a mix or a full on snow event. Regardless of the transition temp issue we have seen during the day today, we are pretty sure that by early Sunday morning, the snow will finally arrive in the Bass Lake area and we will likely wake to some of the white stuff on the ground. The system is expected to hang around until late Sunday night with steady rain and snow tomorrow and will continue to bring a 20% chance of rain/snow showers Monday. Current rainfall total: 0.28 inches Current Temp: 35 degrees F [end of report] 01-Jan-2011, 11:52 Rain/Snow For Today with More on Sunday The first half of the next low pressure system has arrived over the area bringing a rain/snow mix to the Bass Lake area at temperatures that usually result in pure snowfall. The reason for this is because this system is pulling in moisture from the south which is mixing with the cold front. This is causing the precipitation to fall as much warmer rainfall at high altitude and thus, the surface temps are not having as much effect on the type of precipitation that makes it to the ground. Current rain total for today stands at: 0.10 inches with a light rain/snow mix. The forecast is calling for light to moderate rain/snow to continue on and off today with increasing rain rates later this evening and through Sunday. The latest models are indicating some significant precipitation totals for our area tomorrow, with current estimates ranging as high as 2 inches of rain, and 12-15 inches of snow depending on altitude. Snow levels are expected to fall later this evening and into Sunday morning, so we are expecting some accumulation at some point over the next 24 hours. We will update the journal again later today as we gain more forecast information. Be sure to check the watches and warnings page for the latest alerts from the National Weather Service. [end of report] 31-Dec-2010, 16:48 Light to Moderate Rain/Snow Arriving After Midnight The next system to come into California from the pacific will be entering our forecast area within the next few hours, with rain and snow moving into the area just after midnight. This system will be nothing like what we have seen over the last few weeks, but our temperatures will be low enough for Bass Lake to see this precipitation arrive in the form of snow flurries and moderate snowfall rather than rain. We expect to see overnight lows well into the 20s again this evening, so if you have any New Year's Eve plans tonight, be sure to drive carefully. There is likely to be a good deal of slick roads out there and more hazardous driving conditions once the snow starts to arrive. Happy New Year Everyone! [end of report] 31-Dec-2010, 11:45 Station Software Maintenance Report - NOAA Radio Transmitter Issues We have just installed the latest development version of LWC 2.1. (R9 Build 944) This new version provides more detail for the Solar Radiation graph output, some performance improvements and additional minor tweaks to various data output threads. R9 also introduces a banner graphic generator that can provide current weather data within a 500x80 pixel signature graphic. This can be used as part of an email signature, or on a web forum or blog. We created a banner and have added it to our LWC forums account. Working well so far. Facebook currently does not provide the ability to add a signature banner graphic to their message system, so most of our readers will probably never see this graphic in action. NOAA Weather Radio Broadcast Issues We also wanted to report that the KIH-62 Weather Broadcast transmitter appears to be running at a very low output power today. Our radio can barely pull in the signal and although you can hear the reports, they are buried in static. We assume that Hanford is performing maintenance of the transmitter for some reason and have reduced the output power during the procedure. Have added an alert to the home page regarding the issue. Hanford has been contacted and we will have to wait and see how long the problem lasts. NOTE: We will post a weather related update later this evening as soon as we get the overnight forecast information from Hanford. [end of maintenance update] 30-Dec-2010, 09:37 Clear and COLD - More Rain/Snow Possible This Weekend The system exited the area a little faster than the NWS had predicted leaving us with clear skies this morning. As a result, overnight temps dropped sharply and gave us an overnight low of 19.8 F which is one of the colder overnights we have seen in some time. There is still the possibility of upslope cloud formation later today as the atmosphere heats up, so we could see partly cloudy or even mostly cloudy conditions later this afternoon. Another system is moving in off the Pacific from the northwest and should start to bring high clouds and later cloudy skies to the area later tomorrow. (Click on the WATCHES - WARNINGS - LINKS button to view the latest West Coast SAT image from NOAA) The current NWS forecast is calling for this system to arrive over the area late on New Year's Eve and settle in over the area on New Year's Day through Sunday. Precipitation amounts are still uncertain at this time, but there is a good chance we will see some rain or snow showers during the day Saturday and very likely through Monday. Currently the probability estimates are 20% Friday night and 40% on Saturday and Sunday. Daytime highs will remain very cold and overnight lows will likely remain in the 20s to low 30s. The more overcast we see over the area the higher the overnight low temperatures will be. We will update the journal tomorrow night or early Saturday depending on conditions. We would like to wish all of our regular visitors a very enjoyable New Year's Eve and New Year's Day! Be careful out on the roads after dark! The risk of black ice during conditions like we will be experiencing this weekend is VERY high! [end of report] 29-Dec-2010, 19:44 Storm Wrap-Up - Hard Freeze Tonight! The system has moved out of the area leaving some remaining unstable and COLD air in its wake. There is still a 50% chance of snow showers through the remainder of the evening and into Thursday morning. Temperatures have fallen considerably over the last several hours with the current temperature hovering at 31 degrees F. A hard freeze is likely overnight, so all standing water and snow accumulation is going to freeze solid. Roads and other surfaces will be extremely slick come the morning, so use caution when leaving for work or other activities that involve walking/driving on pavement or cement surfaces. Here is the latest rainfall totals as of this report: Total Rainfall Today: 1.16 inches Storm Total: 2.38 inches For the Month: 13.33 inches For the Season: 24.17 inches The revised forecast for Thursday calls for mostly cloudy skies with a 50% of snow showers. Friday is still expected to be mostly sunny but VERY cold. OVernight lows are likely to drop into the low 20s and possibly into the mid-teens by daybreak tomorrow. Another system is still expected to brush the area on New Years Day and Sunday with some isolated rain and snow showers predicted for the Bass Lake area. [end of report] 29-Dec-2010, 13:16 Falling Temperatures and Continuing Upslope Precipitation = SNOW! Temps have fallen rather quickly over the last 30 minutes and mixed with the current upslope precipitation, snow is now falling at the station. 29-Dec-2010, 09:34 Storm Update: 12:45 P.M. A stable upslope condition has settled in over the station proving us with a steady light rain that has persisted for the last several hours. This has managed to push our rainfall total for the day up beyond another 10th of an inch to 1.03 inches for the day so far. Also have seen some low clouds and fog move in and out of the area within the last 30 minutes. The extended forecast is still on track for a gradual clearing into Thursday with colder temps and overnight lows possibly getting as low as the 20s by Friday. [end of update] STORM UPDATE The storm definitely wasn't as nasty as we were expecting. The rain intensity was also very localized due to some interesting upslope behavior. Stations just 5 miles south west and west of our location such as Oakhurst and North Fork received considerably more rain than we did. Fish Camp had much less rain than what was reported by our station, which is just the opposite of what we normally see. The transition temperature for rain to snow was also not where it normally is, so although we saw some very heavy snowfall in the early morning hours, there was zero accumulation and by daybreak, the precipitation was back to a rain/snow mix and then back to all rain by sunrise. Interestingly, we were seeing temperatures between 34 and 37 degrees with all rain! Normally, we would have seen a heavy mix or all snow at these temperatures. Still getting some upslope showers here, but the main rain bands have moved far south of our location this morning. Here are our stats: Current Today: 0.89 inches Storm Total: 2.11 inches For the Month: 13.06 inches For the Season: 23.09 inches The high winds forecast for the lower Sierra never arrived so we didn't have any significant wind gust data through the entire event. The system has moved south and into Southern California this morning and this will unfortunately bring more flooding to an already saturated area. We can expect occasional upslope generate showers today with perhaps a few more 100ths of an inch added to today's rain total. Temps will remain in the high 30s to low 40s with gradual clearing. Thursday and Friday look to be clear to partly cloudy, and then another system will brush by the area for the weekend. Models are still in disagreement as to how much precipitation we will see from this first storm of 2011. We will need a few more days of data before we will be able to make a more specific prediction. [end of update] 29-Dec-2010, 01:37 STORM UPDATE The station recorded a total of 1.22 inches of rain on the 28th with moderate to heavy precipitation continuing into early Wednesday morning. The precipitation is transitioning over to snow at this moment with a current temp of 35.5 F. The upslope characteristics of the system tonight has created heavier rain west of the station bringing moderately higher rainfall amounts to Oakhurst and Northfork than to the Bass Lake area. The first major band of precipitation is nearly through the area as of this update, but colder air and more precipitation is expected for the better part of Wednesday. Because temperatures remained far above the rain to snow transition point through the bulk of the heaviest precipitation last night, the amount of snow accumulation around the Bass Lake area will likely be much less than originally predicted by the NWS. Additionally, the high winds that had been forecast have not materialized, which based on current ground saturation is very welcome news! [end of update] 28-Dec-2010, 19:20 Precipitation UPDATE: 10:04 PM Current Rainfall Total Now: 0.90 in with moderate rain rate. Temperature stable at 40.7 F. STORM UPDATE: Steady Rain Since 3:30PM The storm has moved in and been providing a steady rain ever since. Current total stands at 0.39 inches with an average rain rate of 0.12 in/h. The rates do appear to be picking up as of this update and radar shows that the colder portion of the system has yet to arrive. The temperature has been holding steady at 42 degrees for the last two hours, but we fully expect that to change soon and when it does, the rain will begin to transition over to snow. So far, the predicted high winds have not materialized, which is great news! We will update one more time tonight as soon as that transition takes place. [end of report] 28-Dec-2010, 11:26 Precipitation Slowly Moving In From the North The latest NextRad radar is showing a large precipitation band moving down the state from the north. Forecast estimates are still on track for the main part of the storm to arrive over the Bass Lake area by late this afternoon into early evening. With temperatures currently in the mid-forties, it remains likely that when the precipitation gets here it may fall as a rain/snow mix, transitioning over to all snow by later this evening. Models are indicating the potential for as much as 12 inches of snow accumulation at 4000 feet, which would likely result in close to this amount here at the station and the rest of the Bass Lake area. Precipitation is expected to remain moderate to heavy throughout tonight and well into Wednesday. The National Weather Service has issued multiple flood watches and warnings for the lower elevations of the Sierra and in the SJ Valley. You can now monitor our area's latest watches and warnings using the new link button at the top left of the Journal text window. As always, we will update the Journal again later today as soon as we begin to see the direct effects of the approaching system. [end of report] 27-Dec-2010, 20:18 JOURNAL PAGE UPDATE: We have added a new link button above that will take you to a new page on our site containing storm tracking links. These include the NWS Watches and Warnings page for Bass Lake, and the latest IR Pacific Satellite Image from NOAA. We will have a more detailed journal entry on the approaching winter storm later today. [end of update] 27-Dec-2010, 08:25 Major Storm Arrives Tuesday Night - Wednesday Morning Fair weather will preside over the area today and most of the day tomorrow before the next pacific storm moves into California. The most recent model runs are alarming as to the severity of the approaching storm. Not only are the quantitative precipitation amounts VERY high, there is the potential for some VERY HIGH WINDS! While we are usually spared wind storms of the "Mono Wind" variety, the NWS is suggesting that the Bass Lake area could be hit by sustained winds upwards of 40 mph with gusts approaching 60 mph! This kind of situation would be of major concern under normal circumstances, but considering how saturated the ground is from all the recent rains, the chances are good that we could see some serious property damage and power outages as a result of downed trees and power lines. Residents will need to be especially vigilant to identify trees around their property that could fall on or near their homes should these high winds arrive as forecast. Snow levels will lower to near 4000 feet later in the day and into the evening hours. Potential for significant accumulation if conditions are right. If high winds continue, blizzard conditions could result. The forecast then is as follows: Today: Clear and dry with some upslope cloud formation. Overnight low below freezing. Tuesday: Clear and sunny through most of the day with increasing clouds. Continued cold nights. Tuesday Night: Cloudy with increasing chance of rain early, then rain through the night, heavy at times, possibly switching over to snow. Wednesday: Rain/snow and high winds through the day and most of the night. Snow level will be near 4000 feet so snow likely. Thursday: System begins to exit the area. Mostly cloudy during the day with chance of snow continuing. We hope that you see the dangers that could present themselves if the forecasted conditions come to pass. This next storm has the potential to be the truly first major SNOW storm we have seen so far this season, and quite possibly a record breaking one in terms of precipitation amounts, wind speeds and snow accumulation. It is highly advisable that all Bass Lake residents pay close attention to the latest NWS forecasts leading into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, and monitor our station web site for the latest forecast information and real-time condition alerts via our home page. [end of report] 26-Dec-2010, 08:18 Unexpected Snow for Bass Lake Although snow levels were predicted to remain above 6000 feet during last night's rain event, temperatures began falling rapidly just after 9:30 p.m. and a rain/snow mix developed. This was replaced about 30 minutes later with a moderate snowfall that lasted for the next two hours. Total snow accumulation stands at 3 inches with the current temperature of 32.6 degrees. We received a total precipitation amount of 0.97 in before midnight with an additional 0.08 after midnight. Things should be clear and sunny today and Monday before another system begins to move in on Tuesday. Locally dense fog will be possible in some areas this morning and Monday morning, with heavier fog at lower elevations. Our storm total was: 1.05 inches. NOTE: We received a few more emails this morning from users who noticed a somewhat large difference between our storm total and that "other" station here at Bass Lake. Please check out our ABOUT THE STATION section of our website for a link to a new Q&A page we recently created. It addresses the primary causes of this continuing discrepancy between our station's rainfall totals and that other station. In short, until that other site's operator corrects some glaring issues with their current siting location, that station will continue to over-report rainfall totals due to excess water entering their rain bucket from nearby pine trees. This problem is exacerbated during high wind events accompanied by heavy rain. Once snow begins falling, their totals tend to stay in line with ours, however, if the precipitation begins as rain and later transitions to snow, the ultimate totals will remain off by significant amounts. All of our users can rest easy in the knowledge that the rainfall totals reported by our station ARE ACCURATE and untainted by an improper station installation. [end of report] 25-Dec-2010, 08:48 MERRY CHRISTMAS! The next pacific storm system is hovering just off the California coast and will be pushing east into the area today. Expect rain to arrive in the Bass Lake area just after sunset and continuing through the night. Precipitation should subside by early morning on Sunday with gradually clearing skies throughout the day tomorrow. The system is a very fast mover, so it is not expected to remain over the area for long, and thus total precipitation amounts will be nothing like what we saw last weekend. As usual, the low pressure system is rotating in a counter-clockwise direction, so those taking advantage of our Wide Angle Precipitation map to track the rain will notice that the rain bands will be moving from south to north as long as the east side of the rotation effects our area. Late tonight the movement will reverse to a north to south direction as the west side of the rotation moves over us. Precipitation estimates predict that the Southern Sierra will receive between 0.50 to 2.00 inches from this system depending on location and topographic influences. Snow levels are expected to remain above 6000 feet during most of this event, with a slight chance of some flurries in our area near dawn as snow levels lower to about 4500 feet. Because the precipitation will be tapering off around this same time, accumulations for Bass Lake are not expected. After this system moves through, we will have about 48 hours to catch our breath before yet another pacific cold front moves in on Tuesday. This next system originates in the Gulf of Alaska and will be pulling cold air down from Canada, so the snow levels will be much lower than today's system and might provide us with some measurable snow accumulations around Bass Lake Tuesday night and through Wednesday. NOTABLE RAINFALL MILESTONE! We also wanted to mention that we have broken our previous record for the most rainfall in a single month. The previous record was set back in January of this year with 9.58 inches. Our current monthly rainfall total for December 2010 stands at 9.89 inches! That is a heck of a lot of rain and the month isn't over yet! With the system tonight and another mid-week, we fully expect to end the month at well over 10 inches for December. This also shatters last year's December total of 8.41 inches. As you may already know, we are currently in one of the strongest La Lina patterns in decades, so rainfall totals like this are unheard of during this kind of pattern. Most climatologists are suggesting that the effects of Global Warming are to blame for changing the rules over what we have come to consider a very predictable result from both La Nina and El Nino weather patterns. You can expect another journal update tonight when the precipitation from this current system begins to arrive over the station. Once again we wanted to wish everyone a very enjoyable holiday weekend! [end of report] 22-Dec-2010, 17:04 Historic Weather System Ends With a Whimper Rainfall totals today fell far short of what had been predicted with only 0.44 inches being recorded by the station since midnight. Radar returns are showing little potential for any additional precipitation tonight, so we are going to call this one done! If you have been checking the local and national news, you have no doubt seen that this historic weather event was one of the top stories even on CNN! The Bass Lake area was fortunate in that we didn't suffer from heavy flooding, mudslides and all the other nasty things that befell residents in low lying communities in other parts of the state. As we mentioned in several previous reports, Thursday and Friday should be dry and mostly sunny as the remnants of this final system move out to the east. Temperatures will remain on the cold side however with the potential for frost and freeze warnings to be issued by the station the next few nights. Christmas day should be dry until late afternoon when another weak trough of low pressure moves into the area bringing the threat of showers and possible light snow to the area through Sunday morning. This system should blow out by Sunday night where we will see a return to high pressure and partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies for the early part of next week. Our storm total to date stands at: 7.46 inches We will probably not be posting another update until late on Christmas day or whenever we see some measurable rain to report. We would like to wish all of our users a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! [end of report] 22-Dec-2010, 09:39 STORM UPDATE: Scattered Showers / No Snow The rain bands we were tracking earlier this morning finally moved into the area just after 4AM this morning with light to moderate showers over Bass Lake for the last several hours. Temperatures are stable in the low 40s, so we don't anticipate any snow from this system today. Possibly a few flurries after sunset. * The track remains south to north as we are still under the influence of the eastern edge of the low pressure circulation. We don't anticipate that this system will be capable of producing the levels of heavy rain that we have been seeing since Friday. The current conditions are expected to continue through tonight until the system exits to the east, replaced with with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies on Thursday and remaining in place until late Friday night. At that point another weak shortwave trough will move in off the pacific giving us yet another chance of rain Christmas night into Sunday. Here are some current stats: Temperature: 42F Humidity: 96% Dew Point: 40.9 F Rainfall total: 0.30 inches with steady rain. (Rain Rate 0.06 in/h) * If we see a dramatic drop in temperatures between now and our next scheduled update, we will post a special update here at that time. [end of update] 22-Dec-2010, 01:34 STORM UPDATE: Early Wednesday Morning The rain bands from the Alaskan Low pressure system are gradually moving into Central California via Southern California as of this report. The system has slowed its travel a bit since early evening yesterday which has delayed the arrival of the primary waves of precipitation. However, radar is showing significant returns in three solid and well organized rain bands. There is a rather large gap between the western most band over the Bay Area and the center band currently over the Palmdale area. Hopefully the eastward movement coupled with the south to north rotation will prevent Bass Lake for being caught in the gap between rain bands. That would mean a lot of wind and no rain. Based on current speed and circulation and assuming the gap closes or misses us, we are now estimating that the heavy rain will be arriving just before dawn and should continue at least until noon. Additional rain bands are expected to follow this initial wave through most of the day Wednesday. The other variable continues to be the snow level. The western side of the circulation is very cold, so depending on when that portion of the system moves over the Sierra will determine whether Bass Lake will see a transition from rain over to snow at some point. The current temperature at the station has been steady at 40 degrees F for the last 4 hours, so no chance of snow during this first wave. We just had our first bucket tip for today as this report was being prepared, so our current rainfall total for 12/22/10 stands at 0.01 inches with currently light drizzle and mist. [end of update] 21-Dec-2010, 18:30 STORM UPDATE: Tuesday Night/Wednesday The infamous Alaskan Low Pressure Vortex that helped drive this historic weather pattern since the 17th is appropriately going to be the last of the storm systems in this series to move into California later tonight. The center of the low is now just off the coast of Eureka Ca. and moving south. The low is rotating in the typical counter-clockwise direction, so the rain bands will be moving up from the south as they head north around the eastern edge of the circulation. The next wave of significant precipitation for the Bass Lake area is expected to arrive late tonight and continue to effect the area through all of Wednesday. Current radar returns show a clear track out to the coast with the first detectable rain bands destined for our area just now coming into the radar sweeps over the Ventura county coastline. The system is moving at a respectable speed so these bands should arrive here over the next 6-8 hours. Showers should begin sometime after 10PM from the fringe of the first moisture band, with heavier rain arriving after midnight. Snow levels are hovering close to our elevation, so there is a possibility that the earlier showers could give way to a rain/snow mix turning to moderate to heavy snowfall later. Stay tuned to our web site and specifically our "Wide Angle Precipitation Map" so you can follow the progression of the rain bands in nearly real time! The link to this map becomes available on the first tip of the rain bucket. Fans of this customized rain tracking system are encouraged to bookmark it, so it can be called upon any time you want! It also comes in handy for checking on FOG conditions in the SJ Valley in the Spring and Fall. [end of update] 21-Dec-2010, 10:54 Mostly Cloudy Today with 50% Chance of Showers Tonight A slight change in the two day forecast today. The next system is now predicted to move into the area late tonight with increasing chances of showers through tonight. Rain is expected for Wednesday through Wednesday night with the possibility of some isolated Thunderstorms in the SJ Valley as well as the Sierra foothills. Snow levels are currently expected to remain above the Bass Lake area on Wednesday, but there is always the chance that the levels could lower and bring us some rain/snow mixing or full on snow by Wednesday night. As always, use caution if venturing out on the local roads tonight and through Wednesday. The long range forecast calls for partly cloudy to mostly sunny and dry conditions for Thursday and Friday with another chance of rain on Christmas day through Sunday. We will update the journal again once we begin receiving some measurable precipitation at the station. Here are the latest totals: Rainfall total for today: 0.02 in Rainfall total for yesterday: 0.80 in Storm total since Friday: 7.00 in Rainfall total for the month: 9.42 in Grand total for the season: 20.26 in [end of report] 20-Dec-2010, 20:31 STORM UPDATE @ 8:30 PM The huge subtropical moisture plume that had been providing all of our precipitation for the last four days began to shift south of our area late this afternoon with all precipitation dissipating rapidly soon after. The snowfall has completely stopped as of this storm update. While we may see a few scattered snow showers through the remainder of this evening, for all intents and purposes, one of the largest rain events to hit the Sierra in over a decade has rather undramatically come to an end. However, the center of the Alaskan low pressure system that has been pulling in that moisture plume will itself begin moving onshore and into the Bass Lake area over the next 24 hours. We can expect things to remain dry during most of Tuesday morning ahead of this next system. The current forecast is calling for precipitation to once again blanket our forecast area later in the day on Tuesday and continue to bring some potentially heavy precipitation well into Wednesday. Temperatures will remain low behind the current cold front, so most likely, this next system's precipitation will fall in the form of snow with the potential for some significant accumulation Tuesday night through Wednesday. After this system exits the area late on Wednesday, weather models are indicating that a medium strength high pressure ridge will build over the area for Thursday and Friday bringing partly cloudy skies and dry conditions before yet another pacific storm system arrives late on Christmas day for another round of unsettled and most likely WET or SNOWY weather. Here are the latest storm totals from the station's rain gauge: Rainfall total for today: 0.78 in Storm total since Friday: 6.96 in Rainfall total for the month: 9.38 in Grand total for the season: 20.22 in Total snow accumulation: 2.75 inches We will plan to post our next journal report sometime tomorrow after the next system has moved in and we begin to see some measurable precipitation. [end of update] 20-Dec-2010, 15:09 STORM UPDATE @ 3:09 p.m. Moderate snow continues to fall at the station this afternoon as temps hover just above the freezing mark. We are currently sitting at 34.3 degrees F. Here are the latest rainfall totals as of 3:00PM Our rainfall total for today primarily from snow melt stands at: 0.69 inches. Our current storm total since Friday stands at: 6.87 inches For the month we now have: 9.29 inches which is getting close to breaking our all time high monthly rain total of 9.58 inches set back in January of this year. Total for the season now stands at: 20.13 inches Total snow accumulation is currently just under 3 inches of heavy wet slush. For this evening, the forecast calls for continuing steady precipitation that based on current temps will likely continue to fall as snow. If we can get a few degrees colder after dusk, our snow accumulations will likely begin to increase since currently, we are seeing a good deal of the accumulation melting away soon after it hits the ground. Finally, a reminder that the region wide Flood Warning continues until Tuesday morning unless it is adjusted by the NWS either ending it early or extending it into Wednesday. All depends on the behavior of the storm track in the next 12-24 hours. We plan to post another storm update this evening before midnight to recap all the totals and review the forecast. [end of update] 20-Dec-2010, 11:46 Light to Moderate Snowfall Continues Temps have remained just above the freezing mark over night with a steady light to moderate snowfall. We currently have about 2 inches of slushy accumulation with the chance of the snow turning back to rain for a few hours before temps fall again. And now for something completely different... Weather Station Related Q&A "Talking Shop... Rain Totals Here and Over There" We have received some emails during this stormy weekend from a few users wondering why the rainfall totals from our station are so much lower than that "other" Bass Lake weather station's totals on the web. Which one is correct? How can two stations less than 1 mile apart be reporting such different 24 hour rainfall totals? Well... The short answer is that a 0.50 in or more difference in 24 hour rainfall totals between two stations .07 miles apart is highly unlikely to be caused by natural fluctuations in topological rainfall differences. The more plausible explanation (if the lower reporting station's data is known to be accurate and supported by other surrounding stations in the area) is that the station with the higher total has seen its rainfall data compromised by structure or obstacle induced "run-off". In this case, the "other" station's installation location is surrounded by very tall wind blocking pine trees while the weather station's data sensor array is mounted on the roof of a two story structure. During periods of heavy precipitation accompanied by wind gusts as low as 1-3 mph, the nearby pine trees become saturated with moisture which is then blown off the trees by the motion of the wind and directly into the roof mounted rain collection bucket. It would only take a few instances of this type of contamination to account for errors as high as 1.5 inches per 24 hours. This is why the NWS and CWOP provide new weather station operators with a comprehensive sensor siting guide designed to prevent situations such as the one described above from occurring. The NWS and CWOP weather station siting guide specifically calls for the station sensor array to be mounted 5.5 feet above natural ground cover, in an open space at least 150 feet away from any tall trees, structures or other obstacles above the height of the rain bucket that can block wind circulation and/or interfere with accurate rainfall collection. (D2149 has followed these guidelines to the letter) This is the primary reason that the NWS did not use the weather data from this other station on their radio broadcasts or compile archival weather data reported from it for so many years. It was not until D2149 was made operational in 2009 and its data was found to be up to the accuracy standards of the NWS that weather data from D2149 was made available on the Hanford NOAA weather radio broadcasts and included in the regional database for Bass Lake Ca. You could say that all of these problems had a lot to do with our decision to install our station in the first place. We were tired of not knowing the real numbers and seeing Bass Lake excluded from all the official modern weather records for the area. So... If you want to know what the rainfall total for Bass Lake was yesterday, you probably don't want to get your data from that "other" web site. Those who do, are getting highly erroneous rainfall totals. Especially on days with heavy rain and a lot of wind. ;o) For the "real" story on any given weather day, D2149 should be your choice. It isn't the "Official NWS Reporting Station for Bass Lake Ca." for nothing! ;o) [end of discussion] 20-Dec-2010, 00:02 STORM UPDATE: 12:02AM --- SNOW Falling at the Station! Temperatures have really fallen this evening as the edge of the cold front from the spinning low moved into our area. Apparently so much so that the rain is turning over to snow at the time of this report. The current temp is 36 degrees F and falling. If the precipitation continues, we could actually see some accumulation overnight. This was totally unexpected for tonight, so it came as a surprise when our rain bucket heater kicked on as it does automatically when the temperature falls below 37 degrees with rain being recorded by the rain gauge! There had been some speculation that we could see snow levels fall below 4500 feet on Monday night, but not until then! This storm system continues to impress and surprise us! :o) [end of update] 19-Dec-2010, 15:52 STORM UPDATE: Heavy Rain and Strong Winds Pound the Station! Over the last hour we have been observing some very intense cells of heavy rain with strong gusty winds moving through the area. As of this update we are seeing rain rates exceeding 1 inch per hour. 1.45 in/h was recorded at 3:49 p.m. The radar returns are showing more isolated cells moving through now rather than a solid mass of precipitation. However, these cells contain a great deal of unstable, moisture laden energy, so the chances for additional heavy rain and flooding continue as we approach sunset. There may even be a few isolated Thunderstorms contained in the approaching cells. Here are our current totals: For today: 1.45 inches Storm Total: 5.96 inches (Since Friday) For the Month: 8.38 inches For the Season: 19.22 inches Just a reminder that the area wide Flood Warning remains in effect through Tuesday morning. Additional heavy rain is expected through this evening and well into Monday. [end of update] 19-Dec-2010, 11:16 Flood Warning Statement Issued by The National Weather Service Hanford Ca. Statement as of 10:40 AM PST on December 19, 2010 ... The Flood Warning remains in effect until 815 am PST Tuesday for the central and southern San Joaquin Valley and adjacent foothills... and the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains below 6000 feet. The small stream Flood Advisory remains in effect until 9 am PST Monday for the Kern County deserts. At 1035 am PST National Weather Service radar indicated moderate rain... with embedded areas of heavy rain... was continuing to move into the central California interior. The California Highway patrol had several reports of Road flooding in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley and the foothills. Rain will continue to move into the Kern County deserts through the afternoon and through tonight. Recent heavy rain has contributed to ongoing flooding conditions throughout the foothills and the central and southern San Joaquin Valley. Additional rain today through Monday night will aggravate flooding problems in these areas and will pose a continued threat of rising water through early Tuesday morning. Runoff in the Kern County deserts will cause some Road flooding and rises or flooding of small streams... arroyos and dry washes. Additionally... the threat of rock slides and debris flow will continue over the higher elevations and in the recent burn areas. The National Weather Service in Hanford is forecasting up to inch of additional rain in the San Joaquin Valley... with as much as 3 inches in the foothills. A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or has been reported. Stream rises will be slow and flash flooding is not expected. However... all interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded roads make the smart choice... turn around... dont drown. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams... highways and underpasses. Additionally... country roads and farmlands along the banks of creeks... streams and other low lying areas are subject to flooding. To report flooding... have the nearest law enforcement agency relay your report to the National Weather Service forecast office. Lat... Lon 3741 12086 3763 12021 3686 11908 3534 11845 3515 11860 3504 11936 3540 11981 3611 12047 3650 12057 3713 12114 Sanger 19-Dec-2010, 08:50 More Heavy Rain Today - Flood Warning Issued for All Areas! Update: 9:23AM The NWS has just issued a Flood Warning for all areas of the Sierra Nevada including the foothills. This warning actually includes the entire Hanford forecast area which includes all portions of the SJ Valley. The warning is in effect until 8:15 AM Tuesday. Previous report... We ended the day yesterday with 2.02 inches. A good chunk of that came down after 9PM last night when the plume once again shifted back up to the northern portions of the state. Today has already provided a good deal of additional rain with 0.81 in the bucket since midnight. Over the last hour, BAss Lake has been in a gap between rain bands so the rain activity has diminished to a very light drizzle. However, the next rain band containing moderate to heavy precipitation is just about to move over the station, so the rain intensity will begin to increase over the next 30 minutes. This will be the rainfall scenario throughout the day today. The Sierra Flood Advisory remains in effect at this time for all areas below 7000 feet including the foothills. Our current storm total since Friday stands at: 5.32 inches. Some stations in the back country of the Sierra such as Fish Camp are reporting some IMPRESSIVE totals. Fish camp had over 4.50 inches yesterday alone! This heavy rain is expected to continue on and off through Wednesday and then a weak ridge builds into the area with yet another chance of rain on Christmas day. There is the potential for snow levels to lower Tuesday night and into Wednesday which might give us a slight chance for snow during this 48 hour period. ? We will post a storm update this afternoon with the latest rainfall totals for the month and the season. [end of update] 18-Dec-2010, 16:23 STORM UPDATE: 4:25PM The current track of the center of the moisture plume off the pacific has shifted south today giving our area a bit of a break from the heavy rainfall through most of the day. Upslope showers, light rain and drizzle has continued to keep our area wet and slowly add to our daily rainfall total which currently stands at 1.29 inches. The latest SAT images indicate that another wave of heavy moisture is indeed on its way into our area and should arrive later this evening. This rain band is not yet within radar range so those checking the situation on the Precipitation Map page will not yet be seeing this next round of precipitation. Meanwhile, Southern California has been enjoying a great deal of heavy rain all day today due to the southern shift in the current storm track I mentioned above. This rain activity should continue for that area through tonight and into Sunday. So... While things are currently on the quiet side around our area, don't let the current lull fool you into thinking that the show is over. We fully expect to be once again seeing heavy rain before the day is over and continuing into Sunday. Remember that the local flood advisory for our area remains in effect through Sunday morning until further notice. [end of update] 18-Dec-2010, 07:41 STORM UPDATE: 11:15AM The NWS has extended the flood watch for the Sierra below 7000 feet until 9AM Sunday. The latest radar returns are showing that the bulk of the heavy rain bands have moved east and past the station at the time of this report. We are continuing to see a light drizzle due to continuing upslope activity. Based on the wide angle precipitation map results, it doesn't look like we will be seeing any additional heavy rainfall for at least the next 3-5 hours. The forecast for the area is still calling for heavy rain through Sunday, we fully expect additional rain bands to begin appearing at the coast as soon as the next wave moves into the radar coverage area. Our current rainfall total for today stands at 1.07 inches with a current rain rate of 0.04 in/h. This light rain/drizzle has been steady and is expected to continue until the next significant moisture bands arrive as indicated above. [end of update] Previous report... Rain, Heavy At Times Continues Today The series of storms that arrived over the area yesterday continues to dump large amounts of rain over the Bass Lake area. At the time of this report we are already up to 0.83 in for the day. Radar shows a strong upslope effect over the Sierra foothills extending east up to our area. Snow levels remain high, above 7000 feet. Not sure if the NWS will cancel of extend the small stream flood advisory for the Sierra below 7000 feet. It is set to expire at 9AM. Our rain total for yesterday was an impressive 2.49 inches. Here are our rainfall totals as of this morning's report: For the month: 5.75 in For the Season: 16.59 Check our home page for the latest real time weather conditions including current rainfall activity. Our Wide Angle Precipitation Map will give you the latest radar tracking information for storm activity moving into our area. [end of report] 17-Dec-2010, 22:05 STORM UPDATE: 10:05PM Over 2 inches of Rain So Far Today! The station rain gauge past the 2 inch mark just after 9:30PM this evening as heavy rain continues to fall over Bass Lake. As of this update the rain total stands at 2.11 inches with a rain rate of 0.30 in/h. The rain rate average since 6PM has been very impressive with the current 3 hour average of 0.32 in/h, with occasional rates over 1.00 in/h. The forecast is still on track for this rain to continue at the current intensity through midnight, with a break in the action around 1AM or so. The next wave of precipitation is predicted to move into the area around sunrise Saturday, with another round of heavy rain and high rain rates through the day and continuing into Sunday. The Flood Advisory for the Southern Sierra below 7000 feet including the foothills remains in effect, so those living near a river or stream should remain vigilant through tomorrow morning to monitor for potential flooding in their area. Long term forecasts are currently calling for this wet pattern to continue through Wednesday, with periods of heavy rain punctuated by several hours of drizzle and light rain as the various waves of moisture contained in the sub-tropical moisture plume continue to move in off the pacific. We will post a new journal entry tomorrow to document the rain events for Saturday and also update our monthly and seasonal rain totals. So far, a VERY impressive weather system! [end of update] 17-Dec-2010, 17:49 STORM UPDATE: 5:50PM Heavy Rain Has Arrived! The steady rainfall we have been seeing throughout the day today has begun to shift towards considerably heavier levels over the last 45 minutes. We had some rain rates earlier this evening that exceeded 1 inch per hour, which is definitely heavy, but we expect rates of up to 3 inches per hour to occur over the next few hours. Current radar returns are showing a large and concentrated band of precipitation now moving over the coast ranges with an expected ETA over the Sierra of about 8-9 PM. Ahead of that significant band is the current rain band that although contains some cells of heavy rainfall, is just a prelude to what is to come later tonight and through tomorrow morning. Snow levels remain above 7000 feet so all existing snow packs below that elevation have melted or are in the process of melting. This means that the current flood advisory for all areas of the Southern Sierra including the foothills should be taken very seriously! Residents in low lying areas near creeks and dry river beds should remain vigilant about monitoring for sudden rises in river and stream flows through the night and well into tomorrow. We urge our readers to check out the "Wide Angle Precipitation Map" that is linked on the bottom left section of our gray link box at the top of the home page. This LIVE radar map will give you real time views of the current rain bands over the area, and the view distance and center can be adjusted to suit your needs. [end of update] 17-Dec-2010, 10:54 SPECIAL WEATHER UPDATE! Flood Advisory Issued by The National Weather Service for Sierra Below 7000 Feet! 921 am PST Fri Dec 17 2010 The National Weather Service in Hanford CA has issued a * small stream Flood Advisory for... the Sierra Nevada foothills and the Sierra Nevada below 7000 feet... * until 900 am PST Saturday. The most signficant rainfall is expected after 600 PM this evening. * Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are likely with local amounts of up to 3 inches. Excessive runoff will cause water rises along area streams tonight with the possibility of localized flooding. Persons living near and along small rivers and streams should closely monitor water levels tonight and be prepared to move to higher ground if flooding becomes imminent. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Latest Rainfall Total and Conditions at 11:02AM We are seeing a respectable amount of upslope generated rain at this time with our current total sitting at 0.11 inches and rising. Low clouds and some patchy fog is also being reported in the area. Use extreme caution if you are planning to venture out on our local roads today and through the day tomorrow. [end of update] 17-Dec-2010, 08:52 First System Moving In During the Day Today Don't let these early light showers fool you. The heavy rain predicted to arrive for the weekend is still on track for arrival later today and through tonight. What we are seeing right now is just the outer edge of the rain band from system #1. All of the previous warnings about heavy rain, high snow levels with significant flooding potential is still in place, and the threat remains very real. The track of these systems has also firmed up over the last 24 hours, and the lucky recipient of the bulk of the storm train's energy is... CENTRAL CALIFORNIA! That's right! It is looking like Bass Lake and the other Southern Sierra communities are squarely in the sights of these approaching mega storms! We will update the situation again later today as the real moisture stream begins to arrive from the pacific. Please be sure to read the warnings in our previous weather statement if you have not yet done so. [end of update] 16-Dec-2010, 08:31 STATION D2149 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT Some Real Concerns Over Potentially HEAVY Runoff/Flooding/Rock/Mud Slides Friday - Monday! With a little less than 36 hours to go before the first in a series of intense pacific storms move into California, we wanted to focus today's report on the real possibility of some historic rainfall totals and the growing likelihood for local river and small stream flooding throughout Madera and Mariposa counties this weekend. While we don't want to alarm or panic anyone, the threat is real and we need to prepare for the possibility of a worse case scenario. As you already know from our previous reports, this series of systems is being supplied with moisture from a very large mid-level plume being pulled in from the sub-tropical regions of the pacific ocean. The plume extends from the coast of Central California on the eastern boundary, then west all the way to the dateline! The size alone is noteworthy in and of itself, but that is just the proverbial tip of the Iceberg in this case. The concern here is two fold... 1) The precipitable water amounts contained in this plume are almost literally off the charts, with some areas currently reading over 2 inches. Amounts greater than 1 inch is considered impressive. Amounts nearing 1.75 inches is huge and incredibly rare for our area of the planet. Amounts of 2 inches or more is unheard of since you generally see levels above 2 inches within a Typhoon or Hurricane! 2) The systems will be warm, producing extremely high snow levels above 7000 feet and possibly 8000 feet. This means that areas below this high snow level that are currently holding a respectable snow pack from our previous storms will be vulnerable to rapid melting as the heavy rain expected from these systems interacts with the snow on the ground. When you add these two elements together you come away with the ingredients for a serious amount of runoff that will naturally seek out our local rivers, streams and normally dry creek beds. The National Weather Service in Hanford is already warning that the Merced River near Yosemite National Park will likely crest well above flood stage by Saturday afternoon based on current model runs and the above mentioned precipitable water amounts detected in the approaching plume. The take-away from today's update is this... There is the potential over the weekend for 5-10 inches of rainfall in the Southern Sierra below 7000 feet including the Sierra foothill communities such as Oakhurst and Coarsegold. These historic levels do not include snow melt liquid equivalent which could equal or exceed these totals. If you live near a river, creek or even a dry creek bed, you need to be on alert for the first signs of flooding. Sand bags and other forms of home and property protection should planned for, in addition to the possibility of an evacuation of your property. We advise anyone living in such a location to check with their local police and fire departments for information on any potential evacuation plans should the situation become serious. For those living above the 7000 foot elevation, there is the potential for new snowfall amounts to reach as high as 10 feet! Travel into and out of the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada will be extremely difficult if not impossible after Friday's system arrives. While there is still the possibility that the primary core of this moisture plume will deflect north or south of our area, even if we don't take a direct hit, there is still going to be a lot of rain over the next several days, and everything we reported above is still very possible to a somewhat lesser degree. In a situation such as this, it is much better to err on the side of caution, than to brush off these systems as just another set of typical winter storms. One thing is crystal clear as of today's data... This chain of storms is anything but typical! Stay tuned to our website for the latest local storm information, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio KIH 62 Hanford for the latest from the National Weather Service. If you don't own a weather radio, a link to our streaming internet re-broadcast of KIH 62 is provided at the top of our home page on the lower right side of the main link box. We will update this journal as additional information becomes available Friday. [end of statement] 15-Dec-2010, 05:43 STORM UPDATE: 4:35PM The unstable airmass that brought us moderate rain last night decided to hang around longer today than had originally been predicted. As a result, the Bass Lake area was the recipient of a considerable amount of upslope showers today, which are continuing at the time of this update. The precipitation has been coming from such a low altitude cloud mass that the majority of these showers are not even showing up on our NextRad radar, which has made tracking these cells very difficult all day today. The forecast for tomorrow is still on track with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and a primarily dry day. This will be the only day for the next seven days that will be rain free. More on the next storm system tomorrow as we await more detailed tracking information. [end of update] Previously... Scattered Showers Before Noon Then Partial Clearing The first in a series of pacific storms is currently exiting our forecast area this morning with a few remaining upslope showers expected before noon. After the precipitation has ended, skies will gradually begin to lighten with sun breaks and partial clearing through the rest of the day. Thursday will see a mostly sunny day which will give the area 24 hours to dry out before the next storm in the series arrives over the area on Friday. Because of the expected high snow levels and potentially heavy rain, the chances for local flooding is high. The Merced river for example has the potential to crest above flood stage during the heaviest rain events on Saturday. The forecast is still calling for unsettled weather to continue through at least the middle of next week. Here are the latest rainfall stats as of this report: Rainfall total yesterday: 0.45 inches Current Total Today: 0.25 inches Storm Total Since Tuesday: 0.70 Total for Month: 2.05 inches Total for Season: 12.89 [end of report] 14-Dec-2010, 10:29 Storm Update @ 6:00PM Rain arrived over the station just after 3:30PM this afternoon with occasional breaks in the precipitation as the southern edge of the primary rain band remains somewhat ragged. The current track is keeping the center of the band north of the Bass Lake area. The previous forecast is still on track with this current precipitation continuing through tonight and tapering off after sunrise tomorrow. Wednesday will see a break in the rain activity as this first portion of the storm train moves off to the east to be replaced by cloudy to partly cloudy conditions that are expected to remain until Thursday morning where we might see some clearing through Thursday. Clouds will begin to return late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. As we move into Friday and the weekend, the main storm system will begin to move onshore bringing heavy rain and higher elevation snow to the Southern Sierra through Sunday. Rain will likely continue through Monday at which point, the forecast beyond Monday night becomes unclear at this time. Our current rainfall totals are as follows: Current rainfall total for today: 0.27 inches Current Rainfall Total for the Month: 1.62 inches Current Rainfall Total for the Season: 12.46 inches [end of update] Previous discussion... The Pineapple Express Has Left the Station! The term "Pineapple Express" is used to describe a large sub-tropical moisture band that originates south of the Hawaiian Islands and is pulled north by a strong low pressure vortex to the North. That is exactly the conditions we have at play for the rest of this week. Current Sat and radar images show a very large moisture band that spans over 4000 miles out to sea moving slowly towards the Bass Lake forecast area today. Northern portions of the state are already picking up some measurable rain. Our area expected to begin seeing precipitation later this afternoon and through Wednesday morning. This is only opening act of what might prove to be the largest storm system we have seen so far this season! Current models are coming into agreement that as we approach the weekend, the large low that is circulating off the BC coast will begin to track further south and bring with it colder temps and additional moisture that will eventually mix with the sub-tropical moisture band. This could all come together to create what many would call "The Perfect Storm"! There will be a gap in the action Wednesday through early Thursday before the main event arrives over the entire state on Friday. Current precipitation forecasts are calling for anywhere from 1-6 inches of rain for the Southern Sierra from Yosemite to Kings Canyon. Because of the influence of the southern portion of the combined system, snow levels will remain well above 7500 feet during the entire event. As a result, there is no threat of any snow for the Bass Lake area. Long-range models are indicating that this unsettled weather pattern may remain the dominant influence over our local weather through at least the middle of next week and possibly through Christmas day. More as events unfold. [end of report] 12-Dec-2010, 20:54 One More Day of Warm Weather Before Major Pattern Change Monday will be the last day for this unseasonably warm pattern we have been experiencing the last several days. Beginning on Tuesday, a series of low pressure shortwave troughs will begin moving through the state bringing mostly cloudy conditions and the chance of rain to the Bass Lake area through the remainder of the week. There will be periods of clearing in between this chain of small low pressure systems, but the trend will be towards unsettled weather and mostly cloudy skies. A Potentially Major Storm for the Weekend of the 17th through the 19th A rather large and impressive low pressure system currently forming in the Gulf of Alaska is predicted to move south late Wednesday. The latest model runs by the NWS suggest nearly state wide cloud and precipitation coverage by Saturday afternoon. By the looks of all the various elements of the system, it appears that this next major storm will be very similar to that previous system we had come through that brought the spinning low down from Alaska which grabbed a decent chunk of sub-tropical moisture from the south and pulled it up and into So-Cal and then north up to Central California and Northern California. Because much of the moisture for this system will be pulled up from the tropics, snow levels will be much higher than normal for this time of year. Probably well above 7000 feet through all of these various weather events. We will of course update this journal as we get closer to the weekend, or if the preceding smaller systems produce any notable weather conditions or rainfall. [end of report] 11-Dec-2010, 10:11 Potential for Major Pattern Change Starting Tuesday The latest weather model runs are indicating the strong potential for a major pattern change to occur on Tuesday as the jet stream shifts to a more southerly track which will open the door for the arrival of several shortwave troughs to move through the state. While the total precipitation potential from this string of low pressure systems remains unclear this far in advance, it is looking very likely that a period of stormy wet weather will settle in over the Bass Lake area early in the coming week and remain through at least Friday. Between now and Tuesday, sunny and unseasonably warm weather will continue over the southern Sierra with dense Fog in the lower elevations and the SJ Valley. Once the pattern change begins to take hold, the conditions that support this fog will dissipate dramatically. We will update the journal again as soon as we start to see more specific indicators for precipitation potential over the Bass Lake area for the coming week. In station web site news... We made a few changes to the top links on the home page to reflect the retirement of our Weather Underground based weather blog in favor of this journal as our primary weather blog vehicle from this point forward. It just didn't make sense to continue to try to support two blogs simultaneously, especially since this weather software based journal is so much easier to update and edit. We now provide a home page link to our Historical Weather Data (Almanac) page instead of a link to the now retired WU Blog. We also made a few changes to our "Gauges Window" page on the web site with the switch from pressure to relative humidity for the now 12 hour "Temp/Dew Point/Humidity" scrolling graph that occupies the top slot on the graphs section. A dedicated Barometric Pressure Graph was added in the second position to track pressure over a 28 day period. The 24 Hour Precipitation Graph follows in the third position followed by the 12 Hour scrolling Wind and Wind Gust graph. [end of report] 10-Dec-2010, 14:58 Upslope Clouds Linger Over the Area This Afternoon The remnants of that low pressure system continue to produce cloudy skies over the Bass Lake area this afternoon. Radar returns are showing very spotty light showers to the north of the area near Yosemite at this time but we do not expect them to reach us here. The atmosphere continues to be unsettled which is allowing for clouds to form as the unstable air butts up against the Sierra foothills. The NWS is still calling for eventual clearing with a return to partly cloudy to sunny conditions for the weekend and through Tuesday. Wednesday another low pressure system currently forming in the Gulf of Alaska is prognosticated to move south into the state and provide a chance of rain Wednesday morning though Wednesday night. We will update the journal early next week once we have a better handle on exactly how much precipitation we can expect from this next storm system. [end of report] 09-Dec-2010, 09:43 Scattered Showers Today Then Fair Weather Returns Expect a few isolated showers through mid-day today and then a gradual clearing as high pressure builds back into the area through the middle of next week. The station has recorded 0.01 of rain today with little additional measurable precipitation expected. [end of report] 08-Dec-2010, 07:29 Better Chance of Rain Later Today The NWS has upped our chances for some rain later this afternoon to 50%. Expect increasing clouds by noon with rain possibly developing by late afternoon/early evening. [end of report] 07-Dec-2010, 21:26 Increasing Clouds Tomorrow with 20% Chance of Showers That is the current NWS forecast for Wednesday and Thursday as a low pressure system centered off the coast of Washington State spirals in a few cloud bands through the area. The meat of the system is much further north and as a result, what precipitation we do see will be spotty and will probably not even be enough to measure. In station news... We have added a tag to this page and our Gauges/Graphs page that will now display the forecast generated by our weather station hardware. Yep! Believe it or not, our Davis VP2 can make forecast predictions of its own by analyzing the various weather data variables. While I wouldn't bet my life on what it may predict in the next 24-48 hours, it has proven to be pretty close to the NWS forecast and in some cases gets it right when they get it wrong! I thought it might be fun to let our readers see the VP2's predictions and compare them to the professionals. Lets see how it does with calling the winter weather over the next few months as compared to Hanford. NOTE: The station's forecast is for the next 24-48 hours and tends to call the weather condition about 12 hours in advance of those conditions actually becoming current over the station. [end of report] 06-Dec-2010, 09:20 Sunday Storm Recap - Latest Forecast The impressive rain band that moved through our area last night definitely delivered on promises of heavy rain! The storm total was 1.26 inches with a high rain rate of 3.95 in/h recorded at 10:37 pm last night during the heaviest rainfall. Here are the current rainfall totals: For the month: 1.31 in For the season: 12.15 in The system exited the area q